The preseason is in the books and the 2026 NFL season is nearly here, so it's time to dig into those season-long awards.
I'm previewing all nine award markets over the next week in the lead up to Opening Night, and you already know we'll return to these all season. Today, we’re looking at one of the more unique awards: NFL Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY).
Unlike other awards, Comeback Player of the Year is explicitly narrative driven — it's now officially an injury comeback award.
In 2024, the Associated Press announced that the spirit of the award is "to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."
You can thank Joe Flacco for that.
Flacco was one of our wildest awards hits ever, a 250-to-1 dart from downtown the year Flacco went couch-to-playoffs while Damar Hamlin shockingly fell short of the award. Geno Smith won the award the year prior for his comeback from … sucking I guess?
It's a weird award — you win some, you lose some – but now we at least know it’s a health-based award.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | Recognizable Names We're Not Betting |
| 2 | The Long Shots |
| 3 | Comeback Player of the Year Contenders |
| The Picks |
Who Wins Comeback Player of the Year?
Let's find some patterns from our last 17 CPOY winners:
- 2025 RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
- 2024 QB Joe Burrow, Bengals
- 2023 QB Joe Flacco, Browns
- 2022 QB Geno Smith, Seahawks
- 2021 QB Joe Burrow, Bengals
- 2020 QB Alex Smith, Washington
- 2019 QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans
- 2018 QB Andrew Luck, Colts
- 2017 WR Keenan Allen, Chargers
- 2016 WR Jordy Nelson, Packers
- 2015 S Eric Berry, Chiefs
- 2014 TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
- 2013 QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
- 2012 QB Peyton Manning, Broncos
- 2011 QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
- 2010 QB Michael Vick, Eagles
- 2009 QB Tom Brady, Patriots
1. We need an injury comeback.
Technically speaking, all players are eligible to win CPOY, which makes sense if you think about it. All football players have injuries of varying levels, so it would be impossible to police.
Voters were instructed to treat injury return as the spirit of the award, but Sam Darnold still received seven of the 49 first-place votes in 2024 despite that instruction, and despite not having a real injury he fought back from, and Philip Rivers got a vote returning from retirement last year.
Only 12 of the 17 CPOYs above won the award as a return from injury or health condition, but we should assume that 71% leaps to 100% from here forward until proven otherwise.
2. Quarterbacks win CPOY.
That's the first thing that jumps out from the list above. The last seven CPOY winners before McCaffrey had been quarterbacks, along with 12 of the last 17 (71%). That stretch includes three pass catchers, and there’s only one defender in that span.
McCaffrey was actually a huge outlier. He’s only the second running back ever to win CPOY, joining Garrison Hearst in 2001.
3. CPOY winners almost always win a bunch of games and make the playoffs.
This probably doesn't come as a huge surprise, but it's important to note nonetheless. These guys are winners.
Fifteen of the 17 CPOY winners above made the playoffs, and all but one played on a team that won 9+ games. That's a 94% hit rate — that says we need someone who at least goes 9-8 and likely makes the playoffs. Those players combined to win 65% of their games, an 11.0-win pace on a 17-game schedule.
It makes sense. It's a narrative award, and narrative rewards winners.
Comebacks are cool, but come back on a team that makes the playoffs — especially as the quarterback — and you really have our attention.
So what are we looking for in a Comeback Player of the Year? We need a winning playoff player with a great narrative coming back from a major injury or health concern — most likely a quarterback.
Comeback Player of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 36% |
| Kyler Murray | 16% |
| Malik Nabers | 9% |
| Aaron Donald | 8% |
| Daniel Jones | 8% |
| Micah Parsons | 5% |
| Travis Hunter | 5% |
| Fred Warner | 4% |
| George Kittle | 4% |
| Tucker Kraft | 4% |
This is the top-10 via Kalshi as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Recognizable Names We're Not Betting
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (36%)
Christian McCaffrey won this award last year, but make no mistake: McCaffrey was a massive outlier.
So naturally, everyone wants to default to Patrick Mahomes returning from a torn ACL.
It kind of feels like all he has to do is step on the field and look like himself for voters to line up. Honestly, they might.
But at 36% implied probability on Kalshi, I simply can't do it.
Comeback Player of the Year is far too wonky and narrative-driven an award to lay better than 2-to-1 implied odds before the season even starts.
I made this exact mistake a few years ago with Dak Prescott. He was recovering from a horrific, compound leg fracture on national television as the quarterback of America's Team. He felt like the ultimate slam dunk — and he still didn't win.
There is also the question of voter narrative: if Mahomes returns and is great again, does returning from injury become too low of a bar if he is competing for MVP again? Could he win both?
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning both won Comeback Player of the Year. Brady received zero MVP votes the year he won it, while Peyton was the runner-up for both MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.
It's possible, but my ceiling on Mahomes winning this market is around 25%, and even that feels aggressive.
At 36%, I just don't see any value — and that should imply value further down the board.
DT Aaron Donald, Rams (8%)
The news of Aaron Donald returning to the Rams' defensive line sent the market scrambling, driving his odds up from 5% to 8% on Kalshi overnight.
Do not fall for this trap. Donald is an emphatic "no bet."
Voters have been specifically instructed by the league to treat Comeback Player of the Year as a health- and injury-return award.
It is not designed to reward a legendary player for coming off the couch after three years of enjoying retirement.
Donald's return is incredible news for Los Angeles. It solidifies the Rams as a top-5 defense with a nasty defensive front, though it probably actually dilutes Myles Garrett’s Defensive Player of the Year path.
But narrative or not, Donald simply doesn't fit the criteria required to win this award in 2026.
Comeback Player of the Year Long Shots
If you are betting this market, it is long-shot hunting or nothing. Just remember to keep your unit sizes small.
Three of the last six winners were guys who weren't even on the preseason board: Geno Smith, Alex Smith, and our hero Joe Flacco, a +25000 winner we'll never forget. All three came off the bench (or couch!) midseason without preseason odds.
The most frustrating part of handicapping this market right now is that the books aren't listing several quarterbacks who fit the criteria:
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Lamar Jackson missed four games last season while gutting out knee and hamstring injuries, and he looked hobbled when on the field.
Why shouldn't he qualify?
If Jackson were listed, he should be priced right alongside some of the other top contenders.
QB Michael Penix Jr. / Tua Tagovailoa (3%)
Whichever signal-caller takes the reins in Atlanta — whether Tua Tagovailoa recovers or Michael Penix Jr. takes over — will be playing quarterback for a potential division winner.
We don't know which one it will be, though, and I don't trust either guy.
Unlisted Young QBs
Where are the prices for Jaxson Dart or Bo Nix? Who is deciding whose injury history counts and whose doesn't?
There will be other names of interest too. But we know we want a QB.
Comeback Player of the Year Contenders
QB Kyler Murray, Vikings (+600 / 15%)
QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders (+750 / 12%)
Winning is an essential prerequisite for the Comeback award: 15 of our last 16 winners won at least nine games, and 14 made the postseason.
When I built my fair odds for this market prior to checking the books, my top three candidates were Mahomes, Murray, and Daniels. Unfortunately, the market has them priced about the same, so I don't see enough edge to jump in on any of the three.
Daniels battled knee, hamstring, and dislocated elbow injuries during his sophomore campaign.
He looked like a future superstar as a rookie, giving him a buzzy narrative if he bounces back, especially since Washington likely won't win enough games for him to enter the MVP discussion.
I actually prefer Daniels over Murray slightly, making Daniels' 12% market price fairer.
Murray missed five games with a season-ending foot injury last year, and now he will start for Minnesota.
The Vikings have a clear path to the playoffs, and with a stacked supporting cast, Murray could easily play the best football of his career.
But at 15% and a myriad of ways this could go sideways, there's just not much value here.
Comeback Player of the Year Picks
QB Daniel Jones, Colts (+2200, Caesars)
Daniel Jones is not a player or storyline I typically look to invest in, but the pricing disparity here is too large to ignore.
Achilles tears have historically proven devastating for quarterbacks — we just saw Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers struggle immensely coming off theirs — and there is almost no precedent for a fast, high-level recovery at the position.
But Jones is generating real training camp buzz, and his market share on prediction sites has climbed to 6-to-8%. If he defies the medical odds and the Colts replicate their early-season success from last year, he will sit directly in the crosshairs of this award.
At +2200 on Caesars (a 4.3% implied probability), we are getting enough of a discount over the rest of the market to take a half-unit shot.
QB Joe Burrow, Bengals (+5000, DraftKings / 2%, Kalshi)
Joe Burrow has already won Comeback Player of the Year twice.
Burrow's career arc has turned into a recurring loop: he misses significant time with an injury (eight games last year with a toe issue), returns to elite form, leads Cincinnati back into the playoff hunt, and wins Comeback Player of the Year.
While it feels absurd for one player to win the exact same award three times in six seasons, this is an inherently goofy market.
Burrow is not widely listed across all sportsbooks yet, but he is sitting at 2% on Kalshi and +5000 at DraftKings. I’ll gladly sprinkle a quarter-unit on the seemingly biennial Comeback Player repeat candidate.
Anderson's Comeback Player of the Year Picks
- Daniel Jones (+2200, Caesars | 0.5u)
- Joe Burrow (+5000, DraftKings | 2% Kalshi | 0.25u)
