Awards Week continues, and today I'm digging into 2026 NFL Coach of the Year odds and my picks.
This is a unique award. It's much more about narrative than just winning games.
It's not about who the best coach in football is — otherwise Bill Belichick would've won year after year. Instead, it's coaches who surprise and have a story to tell.
Mike Vrabel took over the 4-13 Patriots and immediately turned the team around, leaping from four to 14 wins and taking New England all the way back to the Super Bowl with a breakout season from Drake Maye en route to winning Coach of the Year.
The previous year, Kevin O’Connell helped the Vikings leap from seven to 13 wins with veteran backup QB Sam Darnold. In 2023, Kevin Stefanski used five starting quarterbacks en route to a playoff berth, and Brian Daboll's Giants leapt from four to nine wins in his first season in New York.
So who will win Coach of the Year in 2026? Let's build a winning historical profile, slowly narrow the field from 32, and count all the way down to the three names you need to bet.
NFL Coach of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | Cross Off These 10 Options Right Away |
| 2 | First-Year Head Coaches |
| 3 | Let's Rule Out a Few More |
| 4 | Coach of the Year Contenders |
| The Picks |
Past Coach of the Year Winners
Let's take a look at the last 10 Coach of the Year winners and see what trends we can spot:
- 2025, Mike Vrabel (NE): 4-13 to 14-3 playoff team as first-year coach division winner
- 2024, Kevin O'Connell (MIN): 7-10 to 13-4 playoff team starting backup Sam Darnold
- 2023, Kevin Stefanski (CLE): 7-10 to 11-6 playoff team starting five different QBs
- 2022, Brian Daboll (NYG): Improved from 4-13 to 9-7-1 as first-year coach
- 2021, Mike Vrabel (TEN): Improved from 11-5 to 12-5 and 1-seed division winner
- 2020, Kevin Stefanski (CLE): 6-10 to 11-5 as first-year coach division winner
- 2019, John Harbaugh (BAL): 10-6 to 14-2 and 1-seed division winner
- 2018, Matt Nagy (CHI): 5-11 to 12-4 as first-year coach division winner
- 2017, Sean McVay (LAR): 4-12 to 11-5 as first-year coach division winner
- 2016, Jason Garrett (DAL): 4-12 to 13-3 and 1-seed division winner
1. The Coach of the Year has to win a lot of games.
Um … duh.
This is a team award, and teams need to win for voters to care. COY teams won an average of 12.1 games over the past decade, and closer to 13 at the 17-game pace. All but Daboll won at least 11. Six of them also won the division.
Winning reigns supreme, as always.
2. It's not just about winning — Coaches of the Year must improve from last season.
Every single one of our 10 COYs improved upon their team's previous campaign — most by a lot.
The average COY team won a whopping 6.1 games more than the previous season, improving from 6.2 to 12.3 wins the following year — almost double! In a 17-game schedule, that's about the equivalent of jumping from 7-9 to 13-4!
All but one of the last 10 COYs improved by at least four wins over the previous year's finish, with a median improvement of seven wins. That's a lot of improvement!
That means the teams that already won 11 or more games last year are effectively out of the running. Eight of our last 10 COYs' teams won 4-to-7 games the previous season.
3. Coaches of the Year outperform expectations.
But it's not just about winning, or even improving. There's a narrative portion of this award. Voters want a coach from a team that surprises them.
One easy way to measure expectations is using team win totals. All but two COYs since 2010 won at least 2.5 games above their posted win total, 11 of the 16 by at least 4.5 wins over expected!
The average win total coming into the season for these COYs was 8.8 (projected to 17 games), with eight of the last 10 starting somewhere between 7.5 and 9.5 expected wins — and none of them above that range.
These were middling teams no one knew what to expect from, with win totals floating around .500, that went on to outperform expectations — usually by a bunch!
What are we looking for in a Coach of the Year?
We need a coach who wins a lot, way more than last year, and they need to outperform their win total expectations. We'd love a team that won 4-7 games last season and is expected to push .500 but instead leaps to 12+ wins and a playoff berth.
A few other notes we should keep in mind…
- Ten consecutive COYs that started the year at +1800 or longer won this award until Vrabel’s win at +800, so this doesn't usually go to the favorite.
- Five of the last nine COYs were first-year coaches on their team, along with seven of the last 15 — about half!
- Seven of the last 10 COYs were offensive play callers, fitting the direction the game is headed. The other three were CEO-types, with no defensive play callers.
We've only got 32 possible winners, but let's narrow down the field further.
Coach of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| John Harbaugh | 12% |
| Jesse Minter | 11% |
| Brian Schottenheimer | 9% |
| Kellen Moore | 9% |
| Klint Kubiak | 6% |
| Sean McVay | 6% |
| Aaron Glenn | 5% |
| Jim Harbaugh | 5% |
| Kevin O'Connell | 5% |
| Robert Saleh | 5% |
This is the top-10 via Kalshi as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Cross Off These 10 Options Right Away
Mike Vrabel, Patriots
Sean Payton, Broncos
Jim Harbaugh, Chargers
Andy Reid, Chiefs
Matt LaFleur, Packers
Mike Macdonald, Seahawks
Zac Taylor, Bengals
Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Sean McVay, Rams
If we already know your team is going to be good, you simply cannot impress the voters enough to win this award.
The highest preseason win total for a Coach of the Year winner over the last decade was 9.5.
Because of that, we can immediately cross off 10 teams that already have win totals of 9.5 or higher and are expected to be serious playoff contenders: the Broncos, Chargers, Packers, Chiefs, Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Eagles, Rams, and Patriots.
It's just too hard to impress voters enough when we already think that highly of a team entering the new season.
And just like that, a third of the league is off the board.
First-Year Head Coaches (Replacing a Legend)
Jesse Minter, Ravens
Joe Brady, Bills
Mike McCarthy, Steelers
Five of the last nine winners — and seven of the last 15 — were first-year coaches with their teams.
We have 10 new head coaches this season, so naturally, this is where we need to look.
However, it's a very weird crop of first-year coaches.
Three of them are replacing legends and step into situations with sky-high expectations: the Ravens, Bills, and Steelers.
The Ravens and Bills have preseason win totals of 10.5, which is historically disqualifying. Plus, if those teams go out and win 13 or 14 games, the credit is going to go to their MVP-caliber quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
The Steelers technically sit a little lower, but they won 10 games last year.
If you need a four-win improvement to win this award, do you really want to bet on Pittsburgh going 14-3? I didn't think so.
First-Year Head Coaches (Not Enough Talent to Work With)
Todd Monken, Browns
Klint Kubiak, Raiders
Mike LaFluer, Cardinals
Jeff Hafley, Dolphins
Robert Saleh, Titans
On the flip side of the new coaches, we have five guys taking over rosters with rock-bottom outlooks.
Remember, we prefer a coach who won 4-7 games last year and comes in with a middling 7.5-to-9.5 preseason win total; 2012 was the last time someone won this award starting with a win total under six.
The Browns and Raiders sit at 5.5. The Cardinals are at 4.5, and the Dolphins are at 3.5. It's just too far of a jump for these rosters to get to the 11 or 12 wins typically required here.
The Titans (6.5) are slightly closer because of the AFC South, but they only won three games last year and still sit outside our ideal parameters, with a roster and coaching staff that's hard to believe in.
There just isn't enough to work with here.
Let's Rule Out a Few More
Aaron Glenn, Jets
Not a new coach, but their 5.5 win total is just too low of a starting point, and so is the talent.
Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Liam Coen, Jaguars
Ben Johnson, Bears
DeMeco Ryans, Texans
We already love the coaches here, but they would likely need 13 or 14 wins and a No. 1 seed to fit the narrative, and even that might not do it.
KOC has already won the award too, which is typically disqualifying on the same team.
Dan Quinn, Commanders
Dave Canales, Panthers
Technically they fit the criteria well enough, but I just cannot get to 11 or 12 wins with these rosters.
These are not teams I want to invest in.
Coach of the Year Contenders
John Harbaugh, Giants
John Harbaugh would be my top outright choice based purely on the criteria. He is a perfect fit: a first-year coach in the New York media market who has won the award before. If the Giants get to 10 or 11 wins, he should be squarely in the mix.
Harbaugh's odds are basically the same price as betting the Giants to win the division. You have to ask yourself a question: Is it more likely that the Giants win the division and Harbaugh doesn't win Coach of the Year, or that they sneak into the playoffs at 10-7 without winning the division, yet he still takes home the hardware?
I keep getting burned by the voters on an award where four or five guys look deserving every year, so I will back the bet with a sure outcome.
If you believe in Harbaugh, just bet Giants Island to win the NFC East instead.
Dan Campbell, Lions
Dan Campbell just won 10 games, and the Lions' win total is sitting at 9.5.
If the Lions show they can overcome the losses on the injury line and coaching staff from the past couple years and get back to the 1-seed, that would set Campbell up with a pretty solid case.
But those are pretty high expectations for a team I think is trending in the wrong direction, and I don't want to invest in Detroit here.
Kevin Stefanski, Falcons (+2000, DraftKings)
Kevin Stefanski makes sense on the surface. He could get credit for elevating a poor quarterback room if Atlanta beats up on a bad division.
The problem? This would be his third Coach of the Year award since 2020. I just can't buy voters giving it to him yet again.
Kellen Moore, Saints (9%, Kalshi)
Kellen Moore makes some sense as a buzzy coach who could jump from six wins to 11 in a bad division.
It's possible, but there is too much injury risk on this roster — and I prefer another team in the NFC South.
Coach of the Year Picks
We are taking a portfolio approach with three long-shot bets to cover 11% of the market. We have three of the roughly 12-15 coaches who can realistically win this.
Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys (6%, Kalshi)
The Cowboys are the trendy team everyone loves in the NFC.
If you listened to my NFC East preview with Stuckey, you know I am high on the Cowboys. They project as a top-5 offense, and if Christian Parker can get the defense to league average, Dallas could absolutely be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
If that happens, this will be a massive national story, and the media will surely want some way to reward the Cowboys for a great season.
Could Dak Prescott really win over enough voters to pull of an MVP win?
Why wouldn't the voters reward this surprising coaching staff? Plus, getting Dallas exposure here gives us additional non-Philly outs in the NFC East since we already hold a Giants division ticket.
Shane Steichen, Colts (3%, Kalshi)
Steichen was a buzzy choice in the middle of last season before everything fell apart. He had the Colts' No. 1 offense pushing historic rates for half a season until Daniel Jones got hurt.
He is a highly underrated coach who would get all the credit for elevating Jones off an Achilles tear to a big season.
I'm not actively looking to invest in the Colts, but this is a great, cheap way to cover my bases in case I am wrong about them.
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (2%, Kalshi)
Getting 10 or 11 wins and a division title is old news for Bowles, and that alone won't win him the award. But I think this team could legitimately win 13 games and push for the No. 1 seed.
The Buccaneers start the year with middling expectations, yet they are one of only six teams I have projected with a top-14 offense and defense.
If Tampa Bay has an outlier great season, there isn't really another top award to give them, because you know Baker Mayfield isn't winning MVP.
This is a fantastic way to invest in the long-tail upside of the Bucs in 2026.
Anderson's Coach of the Year Picks
- Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys (6% Implied | Kalshi)
- Shane Steichen, Colts (3% Implied | Kalshi)
- Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (2% Implied | Kalshi)
