Let's head over to the NFC North, a division where all four teams are projected within a single win of each other.
The Lions open as favorites at +170, followed by the Packers (+225), Bears (+305), and Vikings (+500).
Continue below for our favorite NFC North predictions for the 2026 NFL season.
NFL Futures — NFC North Predictions
| NFL Futures Picks |
|---|
| Lions Win Total Analysis |
| Packers Win Total Analysis |
| Bears Win Total Analysis |
| Division Winner Best Bet |
Detroit Lions (Win Total: 10.5)
The Lions finished 9-8 last year after being ravaged by injuries for the second straight season, finishing dead last in adjusted games lost.
Drew Petzing takes over as offensive coordinator, but the offensive line has major questions: Penei Sewell is moving to the left side, a rookie is projected at right tackle, and Cade Mays' injury leaves them thin at center, where interior pressure historically bothers Jared Goff.
Defensively, the secondary has lingering health questions with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, and D.J. Reed is hitting the aging curve at 30.
That said, the Lions should benefit from having the softest schedule in the NFL, which keeps their floor high.
Everything with Detroit feels like it's slowly trickling in the wrong direction since its NFC Championship window opened.
The Lions' offensive line dropped from No. 1 in my metrics down to 17th with the Cade Mays injury, and the run game has lost its explosive edge without Ben Johnson calling plays.
While they still finished in the top 10 in DVOA across the board last year alongside Seattle, betting them at +170 with all these ongoing defensive and trench injuries is a pass for me.
I'd rather wait to look for an in-season under around their early Week 6 bye.
Green Bay Packers (Win Total: 9.5)
My only Super Bowl future last year was on the Packers at 25-1 before the injury bug completely decimated them, most notably losing Micah Parsons.
Entering this year, there are even more cracks.
The offensive line is arguably one of the weakest units in the league outside of Zach Bako-Bewele, featuring unproven pieces like Jacob Monk, Sean Rhyan, and Aaron Banks.
Defensively, the safety trio of Evan Williams, Xavier McKinney, and Javon Bullard is great, but the cornerback room lacks depth behind rookie Brandon Cisse.
Without Parsons for the start of the year, the Packers' pass rush also takes a massive hit.
Green Bay uncharacteristically has a bottom-five offensive line on paper to start the season, and missing Micah Parsons strips the defense of its defensive ceiling.
However, Matt LaFleur's floor is undeniable — he has engineered a top-11 offense by DVOA in all seven of his seasons in Green Bay.
This is a classic spot to short the Packers early while they are missing their blue-chip pieces, with the intent of buying back the dip midseason when Parsons and Tucker Kraft return to the lineup and reach full strength.
Chicago Bears (Win Total: 9.5)
The Bears had a magical 11-6 season under Ben Johnson, but it was built on a foundation of extreme, unsustainable turnover luck.
They led the league in takeaways, recovered 71% of fumbles, and posted a +22 turnover margin — historical outliers that almost always regress violently the following year.
Furthermore, their schedule is getting drastically harder; they didn't face a single playoff team in their first 12 weeks last year, but they face nine this season.
With the safety room decimated, a lack of a proven pass rush behind an aging Montez Sweat, and Drew Dalman retiring at center, this defense is primed to take a massive step backward.
The regression indicators for Chicago are flashing red.
Since 1990, teams that post a +20 or better turnover margin average a drop of nearly three wins the following year as variance evens out.
If you strip away the takeaways, their defense ranked 30th in EPA per play last year.
While Ben Johnson's offense remains terrifyingly good — especially with rookie chess piece Colston Loveland breaking out — the defensive regression makes the under a sharp look.
Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5 Wins / To Make Playoffs (+160) / To Win NFC North (+510)
The Vikings won nine games last year despite catastrophic offensive line health and completely abysmal quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy.
Bringing in Kyler Murray should raise the floor of the Vikings' offense, putting a competent passer into Kevin O'Connell's system alongside an elite weapon trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and newly acquired Jauan Jennings, paired with run-game coordinator Frank Smith.
Brian Flores' defense remains a high-variance nightmare for opponents despite personnel turnover.
With no major injuries to speak of heading into September, they are easily my favorite win total and division long-shot bet on the board in the NFC North.
Minnesota is the healthiest team in the division to start the year while every other contender is dealing with trench or secondary MASH units.
While the Vikings' defense is in a transition phase with several rookies stepping into Flores' complex system, landing Kyler Murray for essentially free gives their offense legitimate top-five upside.
At +510 to win the division, why wouldn't you take the longest shot on the board when all four teams in this division are tightly clustered within a single win of each other?
