NFL Awards Week continues here at Action Network — let's dig into Assistant Coach of the Year.
This is not a new award, with Todd Bowles winning the inaugural award in 2014 as the defensive coordinator of the Cardinals, but it is only the second year we can bet the award at the start of the season.
We already covered Coach of the Year, and a study of Assistant Coach of the Year (ACOY) reveals a lot of similar patterns. We need someone to win games and improve on last year's record — I'll get to what else is in play, too.
Josh McDaniels won the award last season after helping Drake Maye break out at an MVP level, and Ben Johnson won the year before with a brilliant Lions offense before leaving for a head coaching job. DeMeco Ryans, Dan Quinn and Brian Daboll also won ACOY in the last five years before leaving their teams for a promotion.
What sort of coach wins Assistant Coach of the Year? Let's try to build a winning historical profile and look at a few of the presumed 64 offense and defensive coordinators in play.
If you want to read more about any of these coordinators, be sure to check out our full coaching staff rankings, from 1 to 32.
NFL Assistant Coach of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | Buzzy First-Year Coaches to Stay Away From |
| 2 | Cross Off Proven Veterans |
| 3 | Unappealing Fired Head Coaches |
| 4 | The Favorite We Can't Bet |
| The Picks |
Past Assistant Coach of the Year Winners
Let's take a look at all 12 Assistant Coach of the Year winners and see what trends we can spot:
- 2025, OC Josh McDaniels (NE): 4-13 to 14-3 and 2-seed as a first-year coordinator of MVP runner-up Drake Maye
- 2024, OC Ben Johnson (DET): 12-5 to 15-2 and 1-seed with league's No. 1 offense carrying an injury-ridden defense
- 2023, DC Jim Schwartz (CLE): 7-10 to 11-6 playoff team as first-year coordinator of DPOY Myles Garrett carrying five starting QBs
- 2022, DC DeMeco Ryans (SF): 10-7 to 13-4 with DPOY Nick Bosa and the league's No. 3 defense carrying three starting QBs
- 2021, DC Dan Quinn (DAL): 6-10 to 12-5 as a first-year coordinator, improving the defense from 28th to 7th in PPG
- 2020, OC Brian Daboll (CLE): 10-6 to 13-3 with league's No. 2 offense, helping Josh Allen break out
- 2019, OC Greg Roman (BAL): 10-6 to 14-2 and 1-seed with league's No. 1 offense and breakout MVP Lamar Jackson
- 2018, DC Vic Fangio (CHI): 5-11 to 12-4 with league's No. 1 defense carrying Mitch Trubisky to the top of the conference
- 2017, OC Pat Shurmur (MIN): 8-8 to 13-3 as first-year coordinator, elevating backup QB Case Keenum
- 2016, OC Kyle Shanahan (SF): 8-8 to 11-5 with league's No. 1 offense and breakout MVP Matt Ryan
- 2015, DC Wade Phillips (DEN): 12-4 to 12-4 as a first-year coordinator, elevating defense to top five as Peyton Manning faded
- 2014, DC Todd Bowles (ARI): 10-6 to 11-5 with top-five defense carrying the No. 24 offense starting three QBs
1. Just like Coach of the Year, Assistant Coach of the Year has to win a lot of games.
Our ACOYs won a lot of games. Duh.
The 12 ACOYs averaged 12.6 wins, so really 13 wins since over half of those seasons came with a 16-game schedule.
Every single winner coached a team with at least 11 wins.
2. It's not just about winning — Assistant Coaches of the Year must improve from last season.
Not one ACOY winner coached for a team that got worse than the season before, and 11 of the 12 improved their winning season.
On average, these coaches saw their teams improve by 3.7 wins from the previous season! That's a lot.
Both of these criteria are basically exactly in line with Coach of the Year — so what's different?
3. Assistant Coaches of the Year often coach for lopsided teams, with their unit carrying a weaker unit.
This is where things get interesting. Using PPG to measure offense and defense is flawed for any number of reasons, but it's also a quick and dirty way to measure across seasons.
All but one ACOY winner saw their unit rank top 10 in PPG, with nine of the 12 ranking in the top five. They collectively average 4.0 in rank. Compare that to the other unit on the team, which has an average rank of just 9.8
For 9-of-12 ACOYs, their unit was the better one — and those winners with the better unit were better by an average of almost 11 spots in the ranks.
Translation: we want a lopsided NFL team, where either the offense or defense is carrying the other unit. That's our narrative portion.
4. If it’s a first-year coordinator, we’re looking for a failed head coach. If it’s year 2 or 3, we’re looking at a young up-and-coming buzzy name.
This is a new rule in 2026, and it’s absolutely key this season with a litany of new coordinator hires on both offense and defense around the league.
Nine of our 12 ACOYs won the award in their first two years on the job, and half did it their first season.
Here’s what's interesting, though: all but one of those first-year winners were former head coaches who got fired from that top job and were returning to what they did best, calling plays. That’s Josh McDaniels last year, or guys like Ben Schwartz or Dan Quinn.
The only first-year coordinator to win this award without having failed as a head coach first was Greg Roman in 2019, and he had almost a decade calling plays in the NFL at that point, a known commodity.
That’s important because it means there’s zero precedent of a brand new play caller winning this award in his first year at the position. None. And we have a ton of those guys this year.
Those young, buzzy, up-and-coming candidates tend to win ACOY in year 2 or 3. Now we’re talking about names like Ben Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, and Kyle Shanahan.
Those guys were great, and obviously went on to become excellent head coaches too, but they didn’t win this award in their debut year as playcallers. Whether that’s because of the steep learning curve or maybe even just voter name recognition, it took a year or two.
So, what are we looking for in Assistant Coach of the Year?
We need a coach who wins a lot and improves on last year, preferably the assistant of a lopsided team where their unit is significantly better than the other.
Ideally, we'd love the coordinator of a 12+ win team that improved by 3+ wins with a top-five unit.
There are 64 possible winners so I can't go through every name, but I'll rule out a bunch of intriguing names that don't look like the best fits, whittle our field to the seven most likely winners, and identify a heap of intriguing long-shot bets.
NFL Assistant Coach of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| Mike McDaniel | +450 |
| Vic Fangio | +1000 |
| Vance Joseph | +1100 |
| Declan Doyle | +1200 |
| Christian Parker | +1400 |
| Drew Petzing | +1400 |
| Brian Flores | +1600 |
| Chris Shula | +1600 |
| Davis Webb | +1600 |
| Sean Mannion | +1800 |
This is the top-10 via DraftKings as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 2.
Buzzy First-Year Coaches to Stay Away From
OC Declan Doyle, Ravens
DC Jim Leonhard, Bills
DC Christian Parker, Cowboys
OC Sean Mannion, Eagles
OC Davis Webb, Broncos
We have a hug number of buzzy first-year coordinators this season. These are the guys everyone wants to bet on — but there is very little historical precedent for them winning.
Nine of our 12 historical winners won the award in their first two years at the position. However, of the six first-year coordinators to win, all but one were failed head coaches returning to their old jobs, and the other was a long-time playcaller.
Just look at Josh McDaniels. He was a terrible head coach, but he is a pretty good playcaller and just won this award last year after washing out with the Raiders.
None of the first-year winners were brand new, rising playcallers without a prior head coaching reputation.
We are all really excited for this new crop of coordinators — but history says they have to take their lumps and try to win this award in a year or two. I am crossing all of them off.
Cross Off Proven Veterans
DC Vic Fangio, Eagles
DC Vance Joseph, Broncos
DC Brian Flores, Vikings
This is not a lifetime achievement award. That is simply not how this hardware is given out.
If you are a proven commodity, you can win in your first year by turning a unit around, but after that, defensive dominance is just expected.
Fangio and Joseph are second and third on the odds board right now, but they do not fit this award profile historically.
We just ruled out a massive chunk of the top 10 based purely on historical trends — eight of the top 10! If we are right, this means the entire award is mispriced in the market, leaving a huge opportunity for bettors.
Unappealing Fired Head Coaches
OC Frank Reich, Jets
OC Brian Daboll, Titans
DC Raheem Morris, 49ers
If we're looking for failed head coaches returning to their old coordinator jobs, we do have a few options after 10 head coaches were just fired.
Unfortunately, this group is not fun to look at.
There is no way I am betting on Reich or Daboll. Those teams are just not going to win enough games, and I'm not sure those two are much better playcallers than coaches anyway.
Morris is slightly more intriguing, but the San Francisco offense will likely be the better unit. It is also hard to see him getting the credit when superstars like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are just returning to health and playing well naturally.
The Favorite We Can't Bet
OC Mike McDaniel, Chargers (+450, DraftKings)
McDaniel is the obvious pick here, and he'd be top of my board — but nowhere near +450.
He fits the exact historical profile — he did not work out as a head coach, but he is a top-five playcaller returning to an offensive coordinator role, where he has thrived for years.
We have been talking for two weeks in our rankings articles about the Chargers improving their staff and offensive line. Everyone will be watching this team, and McDaniel is easily the top preseason candidate to win the award.
But a +450 price tag is criminal. That implies an 18% chance to win.
I simply cannot pay that price for one guy out of roughly 50 realistic options, no matter how excited I am.
NFL Assistant Coach of the Year Picks
When I prep for these awards, I go through my entire process and make my own rankings and odds before I ever look at the sportsbooks.
I ended up with McDaniel at No. 1, with a few plausible names like DC Anthony Campanile and DC Chris Shula wrapping up my top 10. But, the crazy thing is that the six guys I ranked from Nos. 2-7 on my list are all priced at +4500 or longer.
So, we are building a long-shot portfolio. Almost all of these guys are Year 2 up-and-comers. I am sprinkling a quarter unit on all six.
OC Klayton Adams, Cowboys (+5000, FanDuel)
Klayton Adams is an absolute bullseye for our criteria.
Adams is an up-and-coming name who brought a creative run game from the Cardinals to the Cowboys last year. He has an obvious media story with a breakout offense in Dallas.
The offense will clearly be the better unit in Dallas, and if the defense improves just enough to get the wins we need, Adams will be heavily involved in this race. I love this as a way to invest in Cowboys upside.
DC Brandon Staley, Saints (+5500, FanDuel)
Staley is sort of a double-fit here. He is a former fired head coach who is now also buzzing as an up-and-coming name again.
I am mostly out on the Saints this year. But if I am wrong, it will be because of their defense, not their offense.
DC Kelvin Sheppard, Lions (+5000, FanDuel)
The Lions are already battling injuries, especially in the secondary. This unit should peak later in the season and show obvious improvement once those guys get healthy.
This defense has actually posted pretty good results even with the injuries.
I can easily see a world where the Lions defense carries the team while Jared Goff and the offensive line struggle.
DC Patrick Graham, Steelers (+8000, FanDuel)
Technically we are cheating here because Graham is a first-year coordinator in Pittsburgh and not a failed head coach — but he is definitely a buzzy, rising name.
If the Steelers somehow win 13 games, he would certainly be the leader of their better unit, the defense.
This is a great way to recognize Pittsburgh without rewarding Mike McCarthy or Aaron Rodgers.
DC Zak Kuhr, Patriots (+5000, FanDuel)
Kuhr is a great up-and-coming name after his unit led the Patriots to the Super Bowl last year.
There is a ton of talent up-and-down this defense.
What if Drake Maye struggles a bit and the defense carries New England to a division title, just like it did in the playoffs?
OC Nick Caley, Texans (+4500, FanDuel)
The Houston defense will be the better unit, but the wins will likely be there.
Would Caley get the credit if he gets C.J. Stroud back on track and this offense looks good?
The perception is so low right now that this feels like low-hanging fruit, and Caley brings a pretty interesting coaching tree pedigree to the table.
Anderson's NFL Assistant Coach of the Year Picks
- Klayton Adams, Cowboys (+5000, FanDuel) | 0.25u
- Brandon Staley, Saints (+5500, FanDuel) | 0.25u
- Kelvin Sheppard, Lions (+5000, FanDuel) | 0.25u
- Patrick Graham, Steelers (+8000, FanDuel) | 0.25u
- Zak Kuhr, Patriots (+5000, FanDuel) | 0.25u
- Nick Caley, Texans (+4500, FanDuel) | 0.25u
