The NFC South is largely viewed as the worst division in the NFL, and the offseason hasn't helped.
Almost every team in this division has suffered key injuries or suspensions to primary contributors.
The Buccaneers sit as the favorites (+170), followed by the Saints (+270), Panthers (+310), and Falcons (+400). Continue below for our NFC South predictions for the 2026 NFL season.
NFL Futures — NFC South Predictions
| NFL Futures Picks |
|---|
| Division Winner Best Bet |
| Falcons Win Total Over/Under Analysis |
| Saints Win Total Bet / Tyler Shough Passing Yards |
| Panthers Win Total Best Bet |
Buccaneers to Win NFC South (+170)
I am taking the Bucs to win the division. They are the team with the most stability right now.
They have the best quarterback in the division in Baker Mayfield, who should be much healthier this year. They bring in Zac Robinson from the Sean McVay tree to call plays, and he will implement a heavy outside-zone running scheme.
Even with Mike Evans gone, I love this receiver room. Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton are a great core, and rookie Ted Hurst is a freak athlete with size and speed who can flash immediately.
Defensively, it all comes down to the secondary replacing Jamel Dean. If rookie nickel Keionte Scott hits, Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy scheme will hum. They also got a steal in the draft with edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr.
The reality is that the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints have all been decimated by recent news, injuries, and suspensions. The Bucs are the last team standing with a reliable quarterback.
I project Tampa Bay right around 8.4 wins.
Mayfield was visibly playing through multiple injuries last year, and getting a fully healthy offensive line (Tristan Wirfs missed five games) automatically makes this a top-10 unit.
The defense is a bit of a crapshoot and will likely be a pass funnel, but the offense should carry the load.
Falcons Win Total Over/Under 6.5
The Falcons came on strong late last year — by the end of the season, they were my top power-rated team in the division.
Bringing in Kevin Stefanski as head coach is massive; he's a professional who will fix the late-game execution and special teams blunders that constantly plague Atlanta.
However, the defense got significantly worse.
Last year, the Falcons set a franchise record with 57 sacks. This offseason, they lost seven of their top eight pressure generators (James Pearce is suspended eight games, Walker is out for the year, and Floyd, Onyemata, and Ebiketie are gone).
The schedule is also a nightmare early on. Seven of their first 10 games are against projected playoff teams.
If Michael Penix Jr. takes his lumps early, they might be worth a look as a mid-season division long shot once the schedule softens, but I can't back them right now.
The quarterback situation here is completely unserious if Tua Tagovailoa makes starts early in the season. Penix has a massive injury history.
Honestly, undrafted D-II rookie Jack Strand looked like the best quarterback on the roster in the preseason. He's a monster athlete.
I am avoiding season-long investments on the Falcons, though Strand as an Offensive Rookie of the Year lottery ticket would be fun if sportsbooks hang a number.
Saints Over 7.5 Wins (+110) / Tyler Shough Under 3,450 Passing Yards
The Saints finished 6-11 last year, but there is some quiet optimism.
I liked Brandon Staley's adjustments as defensive coordinator, moving to more single-high and base sets. I also liked what Kellen Moore did offensively.
It really comes down to quarterback Tyler Shough. He flashed late last year, finishing top-12 in adjusted accuracy and turnover play rate, but he took too many sacks and feasted on a laughable post-bye schedule (Miami, Tampa, Carolina, Jets, Titans).
Unfortunately, exciting rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson is hurt and will miss at least the first four games of the season, leaving Chris Olave as the only reliable target.
If Olave misses time, this offense will crater. That said, the schedule is an absolute breeze.
I'm taking the Saints Over 7.5 Wins (+110). I project them closer to 8.2 wins.
The Saints had the lowest time of possession with a lead last year and were dead last in red-zone touchdown percentage. They are going to be a much more balanced, run-heavy team with Travis Etienne joining the backfield.
I also like Tyler Shough Under 3,450 Passing Yards.
Fading Shough's passing yards correlates nicely with the Saints playing with leads against an easy schedule, while also providing an out if Olave's recent practice injury is serious.
Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (-135)
The Panthers won the division at 8-9 last year, but it was total smoke and mirrors.
They went 7-3 in one-possession games, winning six games by exactly a field goal (including a game against Green Bay where the Packers didn't punt once). The Panthers easily could have been a five-win team.
I like the defensive additions (Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd), but they finished dead last in pressure rate for the third consecutive year and recently lost Nic Scourton to injury.
Offensively, both starting tackles (Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu) are out indefinitely. Rookie receiver Chris Brazzell is done.
Bryce Young remains extremely limited, and they face a surprisingly difficult non-divisional schedule (at PIT, at MIN, at GB, at PHI, at CLE).
The best-case scenario for Carolina is having a bad year and drafting a franchise quarterback next April.
I like the Panthers Under 7.5 Wins (-135). I have them projected closer to 6.8 wins.
Bryce Young simply hasn't taken the leap you expect from a No. 1 overall pick.
Dave Canales clearly had to protect him last year (Carolina had the fourth-lowest pass rate over expected and Young threw downfield on just 9% of his attempts).
With both tackles out and a very low floor, this offense is going to struggle to score points.
