Eagles-Giants TNF Betting Preview: Which Desperate Team Has the Edge?

Betting odds: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

• Spread: Eagles -3
• Over/Under: 44
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Channel: FOX/NFL Network

Betting market: Philadelphia opened as a 3-point road favorite and is receiving 58% of tickets and 63% of dollars wagered on the spread at the time of writing (see live data here).

There’s been a bit of a back and forth between sharp bettors playing different sides of the spread in this matchup depending on the vig at the time, but not enough to inspire oddsmakers to move off the key number of 3. — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: The Eagles enter this Thursday Night Football game failing to cover the spread in their past four games, dating back to Week 2 against “FitzMagic.”

Since 2003, teams that fail to cover the spread in four-plus consecutive games after making the playoffs the previous season are 60-33-3 ATS (+24.1 units) in their next game.

Teams that lost straight up in their previous game in that spot are 51-25-3 ATS (67.1%). — Evan Abrams

The Eagles have won three straight and seven of eight in this bitter NFC East rivalry, but the past five have all been decided by one possession — including two nail-biters last season. — Stuckey

Last Sunday against the Panthers, the Giants finally scored 30 points in a game for the first time since Week 17 of the 2015 season.

Since the start of the 2016 season, the under is 24-13 (+9.7 units) when Eli Manning starts, making him the most profitable QB to the under in the NFL.

When Eli starts at home, the under is 12-6, and it's 5-1 after the Giants score 21 points or more in their previous game. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Giants are listed as an underdog for the 13th consecutive game. In the previous 12 games, the G-Men went 3-9 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. — John Ewing

Manning has been a home underdog 31 times in his career. He is 6-25 straight up in those games, losing on average by 7.1 points per game. — John Ewing

Saquon Barkley became just the third player in NFL history to eclipse at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his first five career games, joining Alvin Kamara and Adrian Peterson. — Stuckey

Biggest mismatch: Giants' short-passing attack vs. Eagles' road defense.

Ever since Jim Schwartz took over as defensive coordinator in Philadelphia, the Eagles' defense has performed much differently at home than it has on the road. Just look at these regular-season splits by year:

The result? The Eagles have gone just 7-11 on the road with Schwartz in charge of the D, compared to 15-4 at home.

Expect Manning & Co. to take advantage of this vulnerable road defense with an efficient quick-passing attack to exploit their advantage on the outside and hide their weak offensive line.

Manning absolutely torched the Eagles last season, throwing for 800 yards and six touchdowns in two meetings. The main beneficiary was WR Sterling Shepard, who caught 18 balls for 272 yards and two touchdowns in those games.

And per Football Outsiders, the Eagles rank 31st against WR2s this year. Jalen Mills could be in for another long night. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Giants

The Giants are hopeful that tight end Evan Engram (knee) and defensive end Olivier Vernon (ankle) will be able to return to the lineup Thursday night.

They're mostly healthy otherwise, which is much more than the injury-riddled Eagles can say. Running back Darren Sproles (hamstring), defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (calf), linebacker Nathan Gerry (ankle/knee), safety Corey Graham (hamstring) and linebacker D.J. Alexander (quad) are all in danger of missing the game.

The good news is Corey Clement (quad) should be good to go to replace Jay Ajayi (knee, IR) as the offense's featured back. — Ian Hartitz

Sneaky storyline: Giants kicker Aldrick Rosas (quad) might not be able to play this week, which is why the GIants signed Marshall Koehn as a backup plan.

In a series that has been very close of late, the kicking game could play a huge role in the outcome.

Don’t forget the Eagles beat the Giants on a last-second 61-yard field goal by Jake Elliott last season. — Stuckey

DFS edge:The Eagles haven’t always had the easiest time containing Odell Beckham Jr. Overall, he’s scored six touchdowns in seven career games against the Giants’ division rival.

OBJ dominating the NFC East isn’t exactly anything new, as he’s averaged 20.5 DraftKings PPG with a +0.7 Plus/Minus and a 15% Upside Rating against his division since 2014, per the FantasyLabs trends tool.

The Eagles have allowed a league-high 122.5 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Giants +3

These are two desperate teams coming off close losses, so I think you can throw out any situational/travel advantages, with one exception: The short week hurts the Eagles more as they continue to be ravished by injuries.

The Eagles offense has absolutely no rhythm, ranking 25th in scoring at 20.6 points per game. A lot of that has to do with reps and continuity, as injuries have created moving parts at almost every level of the offense.

The strength of the defense (and team) last year was its defensive line, as the Eagles boasted one of the deepest rotations in the league. But injuries to Derek Barnett, Timmy Jernigan and Ngata have severely depleted that rotation, diminishing a significant advantage Philly would have over its opponents — especially late in games.

That has had a trickle-down effect, as the lack of pressure has exposed some vulnerabilities in the secondary.

Even when the Eagles had their defensive line firing on all cylinders, Manning torched them with quick passes last year.

After a very impressive offensive showing at Carolina, expect him to once again take advantage of a reeling secondary that is lacking confidence.

With Landon Collins able to hang with Zach Ertz and a serviceable set of corners able to stick with a struggling group of Eagles wideouts, I don’t see Philadelphia moving the ball with any sort of consistency.

The Eagles will really benefit from a long break after this one ahead of a game against Carolina, but you should see a lot of the same issues on offense this week — especially with Ajayi now out for the season.

I think the Eagles are still being given a Super Bowl premium, which they simply don’t deserve at this moment.

The books haven't been forced to adjust, as the public continues to back this Eagles team.

I have this current version of the Eagles a few points better than a really flawed Giants team, but that’s before incorporating home-field advantage, which clearly makes a big difference to this Eagles team.

This is too much value to pass up on, although I like to play these often-sloppy and higher-variance Thursday night games for only a half-unit. –– Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.