The Dolphins were a complete disaster in Week 1, getting smoked 33-8 by the Colts. Achane was the lone bright spot, rushing 7 times for 55 yards, but he was phased out once the game script went off the rails. Miami trailed for a league-high 56 minutes and ended up with the fewest plays (46) and least possession (21 minutes) of any team. Before things got ugly, Achane was playing at one of the highest usage rates of his career, which gives him a higher floor in this market than usual. For some reason, the Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites this week. I don’t agree with that (feels more like a pick ’em), but even if the Patriots were the ones favored by 2.5, I’d still expect Achane to dominate early-down snaps in a neutral game script. That’s all that matters here. I wouldn’t touch his yardage because Miami’s offensive line is a mess and efficiency could dip, but volume should be there. I project him closer to 14.8 carries with about a 60% chance to clear 13.5.