Best Chargers-Patriots Playoff Prop Bets: Go Low on Rob Gronkowski and Melvin Gordon?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (87), Chargers RB Melvin Gordon (28).
- There are three player props offering betting value in the early game on Sunday's NFL playoffs slate.
- This piece will focus on Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski, Chargers RB Melvin Gordon and Chargers WR Mike Williams.
For the second week in a row, the Chargers head East as an underdog, this time looking to upend the defending AFC Champion Patriots, and we’re shorting pretty much everybody as we break down the best Chargers Patriots prop bets.
This tilt features the lowest point total of the week at 47.5. Over their past three games, the Chargers ran the 10th-fewest plays in the league, while the Patriots have allowed the ninth-fewest plays over their last three.
In short, I’m not expecting a ton of pace in this one, and the picks reflect that.
Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski
Under 4 Receptions (-135 at Sportsbook.ag)
While this line is set at 3.5 at most books, I prefer playing this number at four given Gronkowski’s precipitous plunge into mediocrity:
- Gronk had three or fewer catches in seven of his past eight games, including a combined four catches over the past three.
- On the season, he had five or more catches in three of his 13 games
- The Chargers have allowed five of 31 tight ends faced to hit the five-catch mark
It’s not just the lack of efficiency; the targets have fallen off too — after averaging 6.2 targets through his first 10, Gronkowski has commanded just 3.3 per game in his last three.
That’s a small split sample, and there may have been other factors at play in the recent games, but even considering the entire body of work this year, seeing Gronkowski hit five catches in this one would be something of a curiosity.
Betting the under on a line of 3.5 is still solid value according to the Props Tool, but I much prefer paying up and forcing him to hit 5.