Updated Thursday Night Football Odds, Betting Prediction, Preview: How to Find Value on Ravens vs. Dolphins

Updated TNF Odds

Editor's note: The following pick was written before the market moved to Ravens -8.5, which is a full point further than our analyst would bet Baltimore.

Dolphins-Ravens Betting Picks

Dolphins +7.5

Sean Koerner: The elephant in the room for this Thursday Night Football matchup is that Tua Tagovailoa (questionable) is shaping up to be a game-time decision. But even if Tagovailoa can't start, Jacoby Brissett is one of the NFL's best backups, and there isn't much drop-off (at all) between the two quarterbacks in terms of their value to the spread.

That's why I'm locking in the Dolphins at +7.5, before the sharps potentially bet it down to 7, or before potential news about Tagovailoa's availability pushes it down to the key number.

I actually think the sharps are already on the Dolphins, considering the line hasn't budged from 7.5 despite a significant amount of action coming in on the Ravens. I suspect the pros also see the underlying data I highlighted in my complete Ravens-Dolphins game guide that indicates the gap between these two teams is closer than we think.

The Dolphins can keep this to a one-score game.

Ravens -7.5

Brandon Anderson: I loved the Ravens heading into the season, but cast them aside by the time the real games began.

It looked like the season from hell was taking shape in Baltimore. The Ravens lost star corner Marcus Peters along with their top three running backs in preseason, and the injuries only piled up from there. Stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out for the year again, and there have been injuries up and down the roster.

But the Ravens have weathered the storm thus far, with Lamar Jackson carrying the weight. The special teams are outstanding as always, the run game remains devastatingly dominant, and the defense is a work in progress — especially against the pass — but has proven to be built for the long haul.

These are the same Ravens that have been a regular-season juggernaut in recent years, and those Ravens always take care of bad teams. Entering this season, Baltimore had covered 10 of its last 13 games as a touchdown favorite. The Ravens are 0-3 in that spot so far this season, but fought through injuries for wins in all three, and this looks like a great spot against a bad Dolphins team.

The Ravens are No. 1 in rushing Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last four weeks, per RBSDM, and by a massive margin. They're 50% ahead of the second-best team and triple ahead of all but four teams. They actually have a higher rushing EPA than all but three teams have passing EPA, so that's really saying something, especially since it's almost entirely Jackson.

Meanwhile, Miami's defense has literally been MIA, and the Dolphins don't have the passing game to hurt this beatable Ravens secondary — especially since Tua Tagovailoa (questionable) could miss again.

I'm a little concerned about the start of this game since the Dolphins have been awesome in first quarters and the Ravens are playing their first road game since September, but the Dolphins have been miserable in the second half, and that's where the Ravens' run game thrives.

I won't be afraid to live bet the Ravens if they fall behind early, too, especially if it ends up being Jacoby Brissett at QB for the Dolphins. I locked this in at -7 but I'd play it to -7.5.