Rovell: NFL Unders Hitting at Rapid Rate After High-Scoring Start to Season

Rovell: NFL Unders Hitting at Rapid Rate After High-Scoring Start to Season article feature image
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Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Donald (right) and Michael Brockers.

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 15 with the majority of the money on the under.

The 2020 NFL season started hot on the overs, as 60 percent of totals hit the over in the first three weeks. But the pendulum has finally swung back.

Last week was the fifth straight week that the unders hit in the majority of games and now the unders have hit three more times than the overs this season.

Thursday’s game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers started with a total as high as 55, but it has come all the way down by 4 points, mainly due to the statuses of Chargers wide receivers Keenan Allen and Michael Williams.

Both the Circa and the Superbook in Vegas report that sharps hit the under at numbers ranging from 52.5 to 54 and the kickoff total looks to close at 51.5.

Unders start hitting a little bit more this time of year because of weather, though weather has actually been quite cooperative. The Circa’s Chris Bennett says his weather check this week has almost no games being affected by mother nature.

William Hill’s data shows that the money on seven of 15 games is on the under this week, including 56 percent on the Thursday Night Football game.

Other games where the money is on the under is Texans-Colts (85 percent, Total: 51), Buccaneers-Falcons (74 percent, Total: 49.5), Patriots-Dolphins (81 percent, Total: 41.5), Browns-Giants (81 percent, Total: 44.5), Steelers-Bengals (86 percent, Total: 40.5) and Jets-Rams (68 percent, Total: 44).

With a spread now hitting Rams -18, it means bookmakers are betting the winless Jets won’t be able to score.

“I actually think it makes sense,” Bennett said. “We’ve had sharps at -17 up to -18 on the Rams.”

The Jets have only covered in four games this season.

The second-biggest spread of the week is the Ravens, who are now 12.5-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both Circa and the Superbook say that that game is relatively quiet, with no one confident about the number.

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Week 15 Games the Public Loves

The Cleveland Browns (-5.5) giving less than a touchdown against the New York Giants and the Buffalo Bills laying fewer than 7 points (-6) at the Denver Broncos are popular picks this week.

“The squares love these games,” said the Superbook’s Eric Osterman.

In its last five games, Buffalo has gone 4-1 and covered in all five of them.

Bennett said it’s hard to take the Giants, with Daniel Jones clearly not healthy.

“No one is too confident in Colt McCoy at this point,” he said.

It’s worth nothing McCoy has actually played 56 percent of games in his career with … the Browns.

Most Surprising Move of Week 15

Early public money at the Superbook is heavy — 70 percent — on the Philadelphia Eagles after just one Jalen Hurts start.

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