Rovell: Weather + Wilson = W
Picture by Getty Images. Edited by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Darren Rovell, Zach Wilson.
When it comes to betting, it’s important to figure out which factor(s) will control the game the most.
Typically, it’s a handful of players, personnel or otherwise.
For Thursday at MetLife Stadium, the answer? Weather.
With a 99% chance of rain, 45 degree weather and blustery, 10 to 15 miles per hour winds, the inclement forecast is the main component to consider when handicapping tonight’s game.
When factoring in a very bad offense on one side of the ball — courtesy of Zach Wilson — we start to zero in on the variety of different unders provided by BetMGM.
I’m always a bit wary about taking unders in this situation because a slop fest can sometimes cause blunders that result in an undeserved over. Plus, the Jaguars are a legitimate, top 10 offense, according to DVOA. Trevor Lawrence is living up to the hype.
But Zach Wilson is just too awful for me to pass up an under of some sort. Even amid the conditions, BetMGM has the Jets’ team total set at 20.5 points.
The Jets average 20.1 points per game, 23rd in the NFL. And they’re not much better at home — 20.9 points per game.
Mike White, of course, helped to inflate that number, too.
BetMGM’s bonus offer will give new users will get a $1,000 risk-free bet on their first wager.
One caveat is that the vig for that under is -155, more than I normally like to take. But the wind and rain are enough to push that line over the edge.
For the second pick of the night, it’s all about the weather again.
NFL games with winds of more than 10 miles per hour are 95-63 (60%) to the under over the last two seasons. Add rain to the mix and one horrible offense and that’s how you end up with a total in the mid-30s.
But at BetMGM’s current price of under 37 (-105), I’d hold off. Wait to see if the live total ever reaches the key number of 41 — with a vig of at most -125 — and fire away. A Trevor Lawrence touchdown on his first or second drive would likely be enough to lock down that pick.
Picks: Jets team total u20.5 (-155) | Live u41 (-125) or better