49ers vs Saints Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet San Francisco as Big Favorite
Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images. Pictured: Fred Warner
- The 49ers are big home favorites in Week 12 against the Saints.
- San Francisco is thriving on offense with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
- Cody Goggin previews the matchup and lays out his betting pick below.
49ers vs Saints Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The San Francisco 49ers are among the hottest teams in the league. They are coming off of a big win on Monday Night Football where they destroyed their division rival, the Arizona Cardinals, in Mexico City.
The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, are having one of their most disappointing seasons in years, but they were able to pick up a win last weekend against the Rams. This New Orleans offense has been prone to disappearing this year under Andy Dalton, especially against good defenses.
In this game, the battle in the trenches will determine whether the Saints are able to score enough to hang around.
Saints vs. 49ers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Saints and 49ers match up statistically:
Saints vs. 49ers DVOA Breakdown
San Francisco has one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The 49ers rank fourth in the league in PFF run defense grade, third in tackling grade, and ninth in pass rushing grade. San Francisco ranks third in EPA per rush allowed and eighth in rushing success rate against.
New Orleans has been a run-heavy team this season when is isn’t in comeback mode. The Saints rank 30th in the league in early down neutral script rushing rate. They are rushing the ball on early downs 56.3% of the time when either both teams have a win probability over 20%. The Saints rank 13th in PFF rushing grade, 20th in EPA per rush and sixth in rushing success rate.
This week, though, they will be facing an uphill battle against this San Francisco defensive front. New Orleans will be facing the largest disadvantage this week in the run game, according to PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. The Saints will be at a 65% disadvantage in the run game, which is 10% lower than the next most lopsided matchup.
The Saints’ 35% disadvantage in the passing game is also the second-lowest figure of the week in PFF’s tool. New Orleans ranks just 23rd in PFF pass blocking grade this season.
On the other side, the 49ers have been running one of the more efficient offenses in the entire league. San Francisco ranks seventh in the league in EPA per play and 10th in success rate.
The 49ers' passing game under Jimmy Garoppolo has carried this team. The 49ers are able to create a ton of mismatches with their bevy of playmakers and that has created advantageous situations for this offense, especially since adding Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco ranks 10th in passing success rate and fifth in EPA per dropback.
Garoppolo is having another great EPA per play year once again. He ranks third in adjusted EPA per play this season, behind only Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes.
According to PFF’s aforementioned OL/DL matchup chart, the Niners have a fairly average matchup in the run game at -2%, but they have the fifth-biggest matchup advantage this week in the passing game at +27%.
The Saints will be hurting along the defensive line yet again. Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport are both currently listed as questionable while Payton Turner has been ruled out.
New Orleans’ defense has been average this season. The Saints rank 11th in success rate and 15th in EPA per play. Against the pass they are 16th best in dropback EPA and likely won’t pose too much of a threat to Garoppolo.
I don’t love laying nine points in the NFL on a big favorite, but this 49ers team just has a ton of personnel and schematic advantages on the Saints, especially in the trenches.
This trench battle is going to make things difficult for Dalton and the Saints all day long, leading to plenty of chances for San Francisco to score and cover this spread.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.