49ers vs Seahawks Odds: Thanksgiving Pick & Prediction
Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Purdy (left) and DK Metcalf (right).
49ers vs Seahawks Odds: Thanksgiving (Week 12)
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +275 |
The latest 49ers vs Seahawks odds have San Francisco installed as 7-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 43 or 43.5, depending on the sportsbook. The total is key to my 49ers vs Seahawks prediction for this NFC West rivalry game on Thanksgiving.
The 49ers (7-3) offense has been a consistent machine under Brock Purdy when healthy, and the Seahawks (6-4) have few answers to slow them down, even at home. San Francisco has a one-game lead in the division following consecutive comfortable wins against the Jaguars and Buccaneers. Seattle suffered a last-second loss to the Rams at an unfortunate time as it now enters a gauntlet with two games against the 49ers, as well as matchups with the Cowboys and Eagles.
On the injury front, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (right elbow) is active for Thursday night, but running back Kenneth Walker (oblique) is inactive. Continue reading below for my TNF betting preview and 49ers vs Seahawks Thanksgiving pick.
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49ers vs Seahawks Prediction
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Seahawks match up statistically:
49ers vs. Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 1 | 19 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 25 | |
| Rush DVOA | 3 | 16 |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 12 | 8 | |
| Pass DVOA | 11 | 6 | |
| Rush DVOA | 20 | 23 |
Most competent offenses have had success moving the ball up and down the field against Seattle's defense. Baltimore and Detroit picked apart the Seahawks secondary and scored more than 30 points apiece, and even Sam Howell and Andy Dalton-powered offenses got into the mid-20s.
Seattle's defense struggled to overcome penalties on Sunday against the Rams as the aggressive nature of the secondary — and flag-happy referee Carl Cheffers — contributed to the extension of multiple drives that added more points on the board.
Most of the Seahawks' best defensive games came against teams dealing with major injuries (Browns, Giants and Bengals). Now facing a healthy San Francisco offense, it's hard to see Seattle's scheme troubling the 49ers juggernaut.
I wrote last week in my Pass or Play column about how San Francisco's offense has no problem getting to 27-30 points in most games when healthy. The 49ers had 27 by the end of the third quarter against Tampa Bay last week. They've scored at least 27 in all seven of their wins.
Purdy has been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL from an EPA perspective, and he has his full complement of weapons available to expose the very soft middle of Seattle's defense. Purdy is more than willing to use the middle of the field and Seattle ranks 16th in dropback success rate allowed and 20th in yards per drive allowed.
The biggest weakness for the Seattle defense in this matchup for the last couple of years has been tackling. The Seahawks rank 27th in tackling, per PFF. That will lead to a lot of yards after the catch and points for Purdy's offense.
Bet San Francisco vs. Seattle at FanDuel
The main question surrounding this matchup is the health of Geno Smith.
Smith left the Rams game after taking a hit on his throwing elbow and it was heavily wrapped on the sideline. Once the Seahawks went down, they needed Smith to try to engineer a game-winning drive; he managed to return and moved them into field-goal range in a losing effort. He didn't seem to have any real issues throwing and he's expected to be close to full strength on Thursday night.
The Seahawks lost Kenneth Walker III to an oblique injury, but Zach Charbonnet was already eating into Walker's playing time. Charbonnet is the superior receiving back, but there are questions about whether he's ready to carry the load. If anything, it could mean more passing for Seattle early on.
The 49ers defense has solid numbers overall, but they're not nearly as elite as the market is suggesting with this total. San Francisco's defense is built around forcing turnovers and success in high-leverage situations.
The 49ers rank 14th in both yards allowed per drive and success rate, and now they'll be without safety Talanoa Hufanga for the remainder of the season. He's a key contributor to their havoc and defense over the middle of the field. There are holes for Seattle to take shots down the field, and I expect them to connect on a few when playing from behind.
49ers vs. Seahawks
Betting Picks & Predictions
The market opened this total at 44 and it was immediately bet down, partially due to the uncertainty surrounding Smith's health.
I know primetime unders have been printing money all season, but this total is too low for two above-average offenses and two defenses that aren't as good as season-long data suggests.
I'd bet over 44 or lower, and I expect San Francisco to once again contribute at least 27-30 points to the cause.
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