49ers-Buccaneers Betting Preview: Will Tampa’s High-Scoring Ways Continue?

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
• Over/Under: 54
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: As was the case in Nick Mullens’ second start, the 49ers are getting fewer than 50% of spread bets at the time of writing, but the line is moving in their favor.

They've moved from +4 at some books all the way down to +2.5 (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Niners had their bye week in Week 11. According to our Bet Labs data, bad teams that have won 25% or less of their games, like San Francisco, playing on the road with 13 or more days to prepare for an opponent have gone 30-18 ATS since 2003. — John Ewing

Jameis Winston is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay. In his career, Winston is 4-10 as a favorite (-6.3 units). He is the second-least profitable quarterback as a favorite since he was drafted in 2015, ahead of only Matt Ryan. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Buccaneers have turned over the ball 29 times this season and only have six takeaways on defense. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Bucs passing offense vs. 49ers pass defense

The 49ers’ 32nd-ranked pass-coverage unit by Pro Football Focus will have its work cut out against Todd Monken's Air Raid offense. Even with the Tampa Bay quarterback carousel this season, the Bucs' offensive attack has been successful no matter who is behind center.

Overall, they’ve thrown for 25 touchdowns (fourth), averaged 9.1 yards per attempt (third), while posting a league-high 361.0 passing yards per game, according to Pro Football Reference. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? 49ers

The Bucs are banged up on defense, with linebacker Lavonte David (knee) tentatively expected to again join linebackers Kwon Alexander (knee, IR) and Jack Cichy (knee, IR) on the sideline.

The likes of wide receiver DeSean Jackson (thumb), center Ryan Jensen (hamsting), cornerback M.J. Stewart (leg) and safeties Jordan Whitehead (concussion) and Justin Evans (toe) are also far from 100%.

The 49ers, on the other hand, are hopeful to have everyone with the potential exceptions of right guard Joshua Garnett (concussion) and wide receiver Pierre Garcon (knee).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Jameis Winston has a sublime matchup in an extremely pass-heavy offense, and his +5.72 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Player Models leads all quarterbacks for Sunday.

The Bucs own a solid 29-point implied team total on the main slate’s highest total (54.5) game. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Over 54

Another week, another Bucs over.

Thanks to their magnificent combination of high-scoring offense (26.7 points per game) and stone-worst defense (32.9 points per game allowed), the Bucs have an 8-2 over/under record this year, which is the best mark in the league for over bettors (per Bet Labs).

The Bucs are also banged up on defense, as Ian detailed earlier, making them extremely exploitable.

And as for the 49ers, they’re last in the league with a 42.0 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.

Both offenses should be able to move the ball at will. — Matthew Freedman

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.