Giants vs. Eagles Popular Player Props: Value on Scott, Barkley, Brown?
Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Boston Scott.
- Saquon Barkley, Boston Scott and A.J. Brown lead the way on the most popular props for this Saturday night tilt between the Giants and Eagles.
- But are those picks valuable?
- Read further to see which props the public is targeting and what the fair value odds are.
Giants vs. Eagles Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Saquon Barkley to score a TD anytime (+105)
- Boston Scott to score a TD anytime (+600)
- A.J. Brown to score a TD anytime (+115)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Thursday morning.
Barkley’s anytime TD is by far the most valuable prop pick on the list, according to Koerner.
The Giants running back’s fair value line should be closer to -105. At PointsBet’s market-best price of +105, you’re getting roughly 2.5% in betting edge.
Effectively, you’ll be receiving a 2.5% discount relative to its market price.
Another way to think about it: You’re accumulating 2.5% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you’re guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
The other two picks don’t have fair market prices, with Scott’s prop in particular low on the value totem pole.
Scott should be closer to a +600 underdog to score on Saturday. Even at a market-best clip of +390 at FanDuel, you’d pay a sizable premium on a guy who’s scored in just three games this season.
The public loves him because he’s scored in each game the Giants and Eagles have played this season.
Meanwhile, Brown’s fair number is at +130. But his best odds are at BetMGM (+105). You’re losing about 2% in value by betting it at this mark.