On the latest Action Network live player prop release show, I revealed another batch Seahawks vs. Patriots predictions and prop picks.
This round of Super Bowl player props include my first punter prop for the Seahawks' Michael Dickson, an over/under pick on total touchbacks and Stefon Diggs' receptions.
Let's get into it.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Predictions, Props
Michael Dickson Longest Punt Under 57.5 (-115)
Michael Dickson has only four punts all season that cleared this number. I could probably stop there, but since we only get punter props for one game a year, I’m going to keep going.
Dickson is one of the best punters in the league and has the ability to clear this with ease. However, after averaging one of the lowest hangtimes in the NFL over his first six seasons, he’s clearly adjusted his approach.
This year, he increased hangtime considerably — at the expense of distance — and his return rate dropped to a career-low 38%. As a result, his rate of 58+ yard punts was down.
I went back and watched all four of his punts that cleared 57.5:
Two came with Seattle backed up inside its own 30-yard line, where he simply boomed them (both went for exactly 58 yards). Another 58-yard punt took a great bounce and was downed inside the 5-yard line, a bit lucky. His longest punt of 60 yards came against the Titans and was returned for a TD by Chimere Dike.
Given the Seahawks' matchup against the Patriots, Dickson is likely going to prioritize hangtime over distance to limit returns from Marcus Jones, who is one of the best punt returners in the league. Those punts are typically higher hangtime, lower distance.
Punts at Levi’s Stadium have also come in a couple yards under expected, likely due to environmental factors (electric substation? Kidding … mostly).
I’m projecting Dickson’s median closer to 56 yards, with around a 60% chance he stays under 57.5. His most likely outcome is 57 yards (about a 7% chance) so this could be a sweat.
Total Touchbacks Under 3.5 (-125)
This number is high — roughly 80% of games finished with three or fewer touchbacks this season under the new kickoff rules.
Seattle’s approach helps here. Jason Myers had just 17% of his kickoffs go for touchbacks, below the league average of 21%. I expect him to kick into the landing zone almost every time, with any touchback being accidental.
The concern is on the Patriots side when Andy Borregales kicks to Rashid Shaheed. Borregales is already above league average at around a 26% touchback rate, and Shaheed has seen 25-of-50 kickoffs go for touchbacks this season.
However, digging deeper matters — 22 of those 25 touchbacks came against the Rams, who faced Shaheed four times total (three times with Seattle, once with New Orleans).
The Rams consistently booted kickoffs 5+ yards deep to avoid a return. If you remove those four Rams games, all other teams combined saw just a 15% touchback rate when kicking to Shaheed.
Shaheed is aggressive and will return balls near the goal line. Only the Rams have fully committed to neutralizing him with deep kickoffs. If the Patriots choose that same approach, this could lose.
Even giving them an aggressive 40% touchback rate, I still show a 63% chance this stays under.
Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receiving Yards in 3rd Quarter (-122)
I’ve enjoyed attacking quarter-specific props for the Super Bowl and treating it like four separate games, which opens the door for value.
Hunter Henry has clearly been the Pats’ top target in the 2nd quarter. Whether that’s noise or not, the sample is big enough to suggest signal. The same logic applies to Stefon Diggs in the 3rd quarter.
Diggs has been absurd coming out of halftime:
- 3.92 yards per route run; 2nd in the league (behind only Puka Nacua)
- 37% target rate, best in the league
- 36% first-read target rate, 5th
The Patriots make a clear effort to feature Diggs early in the second half. Even if you heavily regress this toward league average, it’s still meaningful.
That’s further supported by Diggs simply playing more snaps in the playoffs and the Pats potentially operating in a rare trailing game script that forces more passing in the second half.
I have Diggs projected closer to 1.3 receptions in the 3rd quarter. One catch is the most likely outcome, but two catches are more likely than zero. His median yardage is around 10 yards, giving him about a 63% chance to clear 5.5.
I also like his alt overs:
- 10+ yards (+146)
- 15+ yards (+235)
There's a ton of upside with how he’s being utilized out of halftime.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
