Koerner’s Week 9 Fantasy Football Tiers: Mahomes Has Company in Tier 1

Nov 03, 2018 7:50 PM EDT
  • Sean Koerner -- the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in 2015, 2016 and 2017 -- takes a detailed look at his Week 9 tiers for every position: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, defense and kicker.
  • Use the strategies outlined below to build the most optimal starting lineup for your fantasy football team.

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Below you’ll find my tiers for Week 9 fantasy football. These are based on standard scoring and cover every position.

As a reminder, these tiers are not updated after publication. If you want my most up-to-date rankings for PPR, Standard and Half-Point PPR leagues, check out this post.

Jump to a position: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Kicker | Defense


Quarterbacks

Tier 1
Cam Newton (vs. TB)
Patrick Mahomes (@ CLE)

I typically start doing my initial projections for the upcoming week on Sunday nights. I try to be the first person to get projections/rankings in to “set the market” in a sense. I also like having no outside influences when coming up with my initial set. This week I was legitimately surprised to see Newton holding down the top spot instead of Mahomes.

The reason behind Newton’s jump isn’t too surprising: He’s in an absolute smash spot at home against a Buccaneers defense that’s arguably the worst in the NFL.

Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.

It also helps Newton that the Bucs have one of the best offenses in football. This combination — terrible defense, great offense — usually results in shootouts.

Newton is currently in the midst of a career-best streak of six consecutive games with at least two touchdown passes. He should keep that run alive in Week 9.

Tier 2
Aaron Rodgers (@ NE)

The only thing holding Rodgers back from the elite tier this week is his lack of rushing stats that we’ve grown accustomed to. Coming out of the BYE in Week 8, I was anticipating that Rodgers’ knee would be closer to 100%. But he only managed five rushing yards on one rush.

We should be able to bank on a huge game with his arm this week, as the Packers will likely be in a shootout with the Patriots. The Packers wide receivers are all healthy again, which helps boost Rodgers’ outlook.

Tier 3
Kirk Cousins (vs. DET)
Tom Brady (vs. GB)
Drew Brees (vs. LAR)

Brady and Brees will both likely be in shootouts that will force them to keep their foot on the gas the entire game. No lead will be safe in either contest. They are both premier high-floor/ceiling plays this week.

Tier 4
Jared Goff (@ NO)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ CAR)

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter made the decision to bench Jameis Winston after his fourth interception in Week 8 and then named Fitzpatrick the starter for Week 9. Here we go again. This situation is probably the most frustrating thing to be projecting each week in 2018.

The Buccaneers will probably throw for 300-plus yards this week, but there’s no guarantee that the quarterback who starts will finish. Week 9 has six teams on a BYE, so if you are killed by that and need an upside play, FitzMagic may just the magician for you.

Tier 5
Russell Wilson (vs. LAC)
Matt Ryan (@ WAS)
Deshaun Watson (@ DEN)
Mitchell Trubisky (@ BUF)

Watson lost Will Fuller for the season (torn ACL) in Week 8 and now gains Demaryius Thomas via trade heading into Week 9. I can’t imagine Thomas being much more than a decoy in Week 9, as he won’t learn the full playbook in just a few days.

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

I’m also downgrading Watson due to his lack of rushing stats, which has coincided with his painful rib injury. After playing in last week’s Thursday night game, he will have had nearly 10 days off to heal, but I don’t think he’ll return to near 100% health until after his Week 10 BYE.

A poor game this week would put Watson in a good buy-low spot if you want to trade for him.

Tier 6
Dak Prescott (vs. TEN)

The Cowboys decided to trade for Amari Cooper and give Prescott an above-average receiver. It’s not a great landing spot for Cooper, but Dak’s stock is trending up in fantasy.

A lot of that has to do with his success on the ground. He has now rushed for 30-plus yards in three straight games. Dak has never really been a high-ceiling quarterback, but his floor seems pretty safe right now. That makes him a great BYE-week fill-in if you want at least 13 fantasy points.

Tier 7
Alex Smith (vs. ATL)
C.J. Beathard (vs. OAK)
Philip Rivers (@ SEA)
Matthew Stafford (@ MIN)
Ben Roethlisberger (@ BAL)
Baker Mayfield (vs. KC)

Beathard is dealing with a wrist injury and has yet to practice this week with the 49ers playing on Thursday Night Football. If he is unable to go, Nick Mullens or Tom Savage will start for the Niners this week.

If Beathard does in fact play, I think he’s a fantastic “what the heck” BYE week sneaky start. The 49ers currently have a team total of 25, which is the eighth-highest of the week against the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders. I have no problem rolling the dice on Beathard this week.

Tier 8
Joe Flacco (vs. PIT)
Derek Carr (@ SF)
Brock Osweiler (vs. NYJ)
Case Keenum (vs. HOU)

A season-high six teams are on BYE this week, which means this tier is in play in deeper leagues and especially two-quarterback leagues. You are only starting these guys because you have to, not because you want to.

Tier 10
Marcus Mariota (@ DAL)
Sam Darnold (@ MIA)

I’d much rather be using the opposing defenses of either quarterback this week.

“Whoever is the starting QB for the Bills” Tier
Nathan Peterman (vs. CHI)

Running Backs

Based on standard scoring; +/- indicates how many Tiers up/down each player would move in a PPR format.

Tier 1
Todd Gurley (@ NO)

Other than seeing Gurley willingly go down near the goal line rather than score what would have been a sure touchdown to secure the game last week, owners of the Rams running back have nothing to complain about. I’ve been saying that if you own Gurley, your biggest fear should be Los Angeles being 13-0 and clinching the No. 1 seed with a couple of weeks left in the season.

This game against the Saints will go a long way to determining that. The Saints are currently a 1.5-point favorite (see live betting odds here).

If the Rams do indeed win, I may start actively shopping Gurley and sell high.

Tier 2
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. TEN)

All eyes will be on Cooper’s debut on Monday Night Football, but this game really sets up as a Zeke game. The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites, and their defense should hold the Titans in check. These are the spots where we see Zeke get 25-plus touches.

I’m setting the over/under at 7.5 times we see Zeke do his “feed me” gesture after a first down this week.

Tier 3
Kareem Hunt (@ CLE)
James Conner (@ BAL)
Christian McCaffrey (vs. TB)
Alvin Kamara (vs. LAR)
Melvin Gordon (@ SEA)

Conner likely gets yet another week being a rock-solid RB1. His matchup at the Ravens is a brutal one, but we’re relying on sheer volume and goal-line duties to rack up fantasy points.

Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara.

Kamara is turning into a TD-dependent RB1 in standard formats (though one who is very likely to score). He’s a top-three lock in PPR this week. The return of Mark Ingram hurts his touch/yardage output, but quarterback Taysom Hill’s package of plays hurts both Saints RBs more than people realize.


Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings

PPR: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Standard: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Half-Point PPR: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K


Tier 4
Adrian Peterson (vs. ATL)
James White (vs. GB) +1

Peterson and White are rolling right now. I currently have their running-back-by-committee counterparts, Chris Thompson and Sony Michel, playing this week. Be sure to check my updated rankings if we learn more about those players’ perceived health to see how that changes these guys’ ranks.

Either way, Peterson and White are must-starts in all formats this week.

Tier 5
Latavius Murray (vs. DET)
Nick Chubb (vs. KC)

Murray should get another week as the Vikings’ bell-cow back as they continue to rest Dalvin Cook in hopes of getting him close to 100%. The Lions defense has been gashed by running backs all season, but Detroit brought in run-stuffing Damon “Snacks” Harrison last week.

Harrison may stop the bleeding a bit, but this is still a great spot for Murray.

Tier 6
Phillip Lindsay (vs. HOU)
Mark Ingram (vs. LAR)
Lamar Miller (@ DEN)
Isaiah Crowell (@ MIA)
Chris Carson (vs. LAC)

Lindsay could benefit a bit from the Broncos’ trade of Demaryius Thomas, as Denver could use fewer three-wide sets and emphasize the run a bit more. Right now I have Royce Freeman returning to slightly less than his normal role, so Lindsay would get a boost if Freeman is ruled out again this week.

Crowell disappointed owners who felt he was going to have a big game last week with Bilal Powell out for the season. This week I’m viewing him as a low-end RB2. This matchup sets up better for him, as the Jets should keep it close.

With Elijah McGuire potentially returning this week, the Jets backfield may shape into a three-way running-back-by-committee in the next couple weeks. If Crowell has a big game, I would recommend selling high if you can.

Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Jets running back Isaiah Crowell (20).

Tier 7
Jordan Howard (@ BUF)
Kerryon Johnson (@ MIN)
Kenyan Drake (vs. NYJ)
Doug Martin (@ SF)
Tevin Coleman (@ WAS)
Alex Collins (vs. PIT)

The Bears are 10-point road favorites, which means this sets up as a Howard game. For his career, Howard has averaged 9.4 standard points in losses and 16.9 in wins.

It has been frustrating to see Frank Gore so involved in the Miami backfield this season, but we finally saw a Drake ceiling game in Week 8. He piled up nearly 100 total yards and scored touchdowns both rushing and receiving touchdown. Drake is in another good spot this week against the Jets.

Tier 8
Tarik Cohen (@ BUF)
Sony Michel (vs. GB)
Aaron Jones (@ NE)
Dion Lewis (@ DAL)
Peyton Barber (@ CAR) -1
LeSean McCoy (vs. CHI)
Matt Breida (vs. OAK)

Jones should see a bit of a boost with the Packers trading away Ty Montgomery.

Barber’s stock has been trending up after an 85-yard performance in Week 8, and now it appears Ronald Jones will miss some time. The only downside with Barber is he has zero involvement in the passing game and could get lost in the game plan if the Bucs ever get down big.

Barber is much more valuable in standard formats.

Tier 9
Austin Ekeler (@ SEA)
Chris Thompson (vs. ATL) +1
Frank Gore (vs. NYJ)
Ito Smith (@ WAS)
Jalen Richard (@ SF) +1

All backs in this tier are the tail end of a two-way running-back-by-committee. It’s a shame that Thompson is banged up heading into what would be a dream matchup for his pass-catching skill set against a decimated Falcons defense. His final rank will depend on how he looks in practice this week.

Richard makes for a great PPR-only play this week if you need a BYE week fill-in.

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Redskins running back Chris Thompson.

Tier 10
Derrick Henry (@ DAL)

Henry has been a touchdown-dependent back who hasn’t been scoring touchdowns. He finally hit pay dirt for the first time this season in Week 8. Anyone still hanging on to Henry is either doing so in case Dion Lewis were to miss time or for a BYE-heavy week like Week 9 where you are left with no other choice but plugging him in and praying for a cheap touchdown.

Tier 11
Trenton Cannon (@ MIA)
Duke Johnson (vs. KC) +1
Royce Freeman (vs. HOU)
Mike Davis (vs. LAC)

Johnson got banged up last week, but he is trending to be 100% healthy by Sunday. You could see him move up in my rankings quite a bit. (Be sure to check out my updated rankings here.)

Johnson is in a great spot at home against the Chiefs in a game where the Browns will likely trail throughout. Expect Cleveland to force-feed Johnson dump-offs, as Chubb has no involvement in the passing game.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1
Adam Thielen (vs. DET)

Thielen has taken over the receiver position this season with a historic start during which he has posted more than 100 receiving yards in every game this season. He has also scored a touchdown in five straight contests, which makes him the optimal high-ceiling/floor play at the position right now.

Tier 2
Michael Thomas (vs. LAR)
DeAndre Hopkins (@ DEN)
Davante Adams (@ NE)
Tyreek Hill (@ CLE)

Hopkins could actually benefit from the trade that brought in Demaryius Thomas. Defenses would have been able to key in on him even more with Will Fuller out for the season.

This week I’m thinking the Texans use Thomas as a decoy while he gets up to speed with the playbook and builds chemistry with Watson.

Keke Coutee is dealing with a hamstring issue and will draw shutdown slot corner Chris Harris Jr. Expect a monster game from Hopkins this week.

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10).

Tier 3
Julio Jones (@ WAS)
Antonio Brown (@ BAL)

There was some chatter earlier in the season that JuJu Smith-Schuster may be overtaking Antonio Brown as the Steelers’ wide receiver to own, but I stuck with my boy AB (though Smith-Schuster could possibly pass him up next season). Brown has silenced his critics with seven touchdowns in his past five games.

I’m ranking Brown a bit lower this week in what is a brutal matchup on the road against a Ravens team that has been playing shut-down defense. Baltimore has yet to give up a 100-yard receiving game this season to an opposing wideout.

Tier 4
Stefon Diggs (vs. DET)
Mike Evans (@ CAR)
Robert Woods (@ NO)

Cooper Kupp is expected to return this week for the Rams, so we will be trying to guess who draws Saints’ top corner Marshon Lattimore and maybe give them a slight downgrade. That person may very well be Woods, but there’s no way you can bench him this week.

The Rams move around so much that they can have each wide receiver will have his turn with more beatable corners, Eli Apple and P.J. Williams.

If you own one of the top three Rams receivers, there’s no need to get cute — you are starting each of them with confidence this week.

Tier 5
Brandin Cooks (@ NO)
Emmanuel Sanders (vs. HOU)
Keenan Allen (@ SEA)
Marvin Jones (@ MIN)
Kenny Golladay (@ MIN)
Jarvis Landry (vs. KC)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ BAL)

Jones and Golladay get a big boost from Golden Tate’s departure, mainly because they will be seeing two or three more targets per week. This is great news for their perceived floor, but I also think we will start seeing the massive games I predicted for Golladay if/when either of the Lions’ wideouts miss a game.

He gets the entire second half of the season to put up eye-popping numbers — and when he has good matchups, I could see Golladay being a WR1 in my rankings.

Tier 6
Julian Edelman (vs. GB)
Josh Gordon (vs. GB)
Tyler Lockett (vs. LAC)
DeSean Jackson (@ CAR)
Devin Funchess (vs. TB)
Sammy Watkins (@ CLE)
Cooper Kupp (@ NO)
John Brown (vs. PIT)
Doug Baldwin (vs. LAC)
Courtland Sutton (vs. HOU)

We are already seeing typical Gordon drama unfold with the Patriots. After being late a couple times, it was reported he’d miss the first quarter of last week’s game against the Bills.

But sure enough, Gordon was out there on the very first play. Brady had been raving about how fast Gordon was picking up the offense, which makes me believe they are already being a bit lenient with their zero-tolerance policy.

After putting up a dud in Week 8, look for Gordon to bounce back in a big way in what will be a shootout against the Packers. This matchup got even juicier for him after the Packers traded away safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots wide receiver Josh Gordon (10), Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Jordan Lucas (24).

Sutton may have been the biggest winner of the trade deadline. He is already incredibly productive in a limited role, and the sky will be the limit for Sutton now that the training wheels have been taken off.

We should see a massive spike in his snaps/targets going forward.

Tier 7
Michael Crabtree (vs. PIT)
Calvin Ridley (@ WAS)
D.J. Moore (vs. TB)
Corey Davis (@ DAL)
Jordy Nelson (@ SF)
Taylor Gabriel (@ BUF)
Tre’Quan Smith (vs. LAR)

Moore saw a huge boost in snaps with Torrey Smith missing Week 8. He responded with career bests in receptions (5) and receiving yards (90). With a dream matchup against Tampa this week — and Smith missing Wednesday’s practice — Moore could shoot up even more in my rankings.

It’s also worth pointing out that Moore has been putting up some rushing stats, with 75 yards on four carries over the past four games. Each of his four carries went for 10 or more yards, which means it wasn’t just a result of one big run to pad his stats. The 10-20 extra yards he could provide on the ground each week raises his floor and ceiling.

Tier 8
Chris Godwin (@ CAR)
Marquise Goodwin (vs. OAK)
DeVante Parker (vs. NYJ)
Robby Anderson (@ MIA)
Tyrell Williams (@ SEA)
Danny Amendola (vs. NYJ)
Jermaine Kearse (@ MIA)
Randall Cobb (@ NE)
Allen Robinson (@ BUF)
Mike Williams (@ SEA)
Keke Coutee (@ DEN)

This tier offers a ton of potential on a BYE-heavy week, but every single one of them has a pretty scary floor. They all could get lost in the game plan and put up a dud.

A lot of people are going to be placing their trust into Parker this week after his blow-up game last Thursday against the Texans.

We have to remember that game was a result of both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills being out. If Stills returns this week, it could muddy the waters for all Dolphins receivers. Be sure to check my updated rankings after we find out Stills’ status to see where I ultimately have Parker slotted.

Tier 9
Amari Cooper (vs. TEN)
Geronimo Allison (@ NE)
Cole Beasley (vs. TEN)
Chris Hogan (vs. GB)
Mohamed Sanu (@ WAS)
David Moore (vs. LAC)
Willie Snead (vs. PIT)

You could do worse than Moore as an emergency BYE week fill-in. The Seahawks opted to essentially give Brandon Marshall’s snaps to Moore in Week 8 and he responded with a 4/97/1 line.

One of the more overlooked news items from the trade deadline was Seattle releasing Marshall. I see this being a clear sign that the Seahawks intend to keep Moore heavily involved in the passing game going forward.

Tight Ends

Tier 1
Travis Kelce (@ CLE)

Kelce’s value is at an all-time high right now. With Rob Gronkowski struggling and Zach Ertz on a BYE this week, Kelce is two projected points clear of the next tight end.

We might see a bit of a ding to Ertz’s value going forward with the Eagles deciding to bring in Golden Tate, who is a target hog over the middle of the field. If you drafted Kelce early this year, he is shaping up to be a league-winning value due to scarcity of reliable options at the position.

Tier 2
Rob Gronkowski (vs. GB)
George Kittle (vs. OAK)
Jared Cook (@ SF)

I think Gronk will return to form in the second half of the season, so this might be the last week you can pry him away from a frustrated owner. Kittle and Cook face off on TNF and should be a fixture in lineups going forward.

Week 8 was a good sign that Cook (4/74/1) could be one of the main beneficiaries of Cooper’s departure.

Tier 3
David Njoku (vs. KC)
Jimmy Graham (@ NE)
Trey Burton (@ BUF)
Greg Olsen (vs. TB)

It only took three tiers to get to players at the position who offer terrifyingly low floors. Njoku dressed up as a ghost for Halloween a week early; he was invisible in Week 8 with zero stats across the board.

Despite the goose egg last week, I am banking on him having a bounce-back game against the Chiefs. Do not bench him out of anger this week. Leave him in there and just accept the fact that tight ends are more prone to floor games than any other position.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku.

Tier 4
Jordan Reed (vs. ATL)
O.J. Howard (@ CAR)
Austin Hooper (@ WAS)
Kyle Rudolph (vs. DET)

One of the biggest head-scratchers has been Reed putting up dud after dud this season despite appearing to be 100% healthy for a change. A lot of the blame needs to be placed on quarterback Alex Smith.

As Evan Silva pointed out on our Week 9 Fantasy Flex podcast, Smith typically isn’t targeting Reed over the middle as his first read, instead opting to use him as a secondary option in the flat.

If Reed can’t get it going this week against Atlanta, it may be time to hit the panic button.

Tier 5
Vance McDonald (@ BAL)
Ben Watson (vs. LAR)

Watson was yet another tight end who put up a goose egg in Week 8. We only invest in Watson because he is in a high-octane offense that can generate some cheap yardage/touchdowns, but he is far from a safe play.

Tier 6
Ed Dickson (vs. LAC)
Geoff Swaim (vs. TEN)

Dickson made his season debut with huge 2/54/1 game, and he appears to have a big enough role in the Seattle passing attack to be worth a flier.

With so many different options in the Seattle passing game and very few yards to go around, any number of Seahawks could hit value — or fall flat. If you are thinking about starting Dickson, you are desperate and taking a zero is part of the gamble.

Tier 7
Charles Clay (vs. CHI)
Christopher Herndon (@ MIA)
Jeff Heuerman (vs. HOU)

Yuck. With so many tight ends on BYE this week, this gruesome tier is in play for some people. Heuerman could be one of the “winners” of the Thomas trade, as the Broncos could opt for fewer three-wide sets and target him even more. He is worth a flier in deeper leagues if that turns out to be the case.

Tier 8
Mike Gesicki (vs. NYJ)
Nick Vannett (vs. LAC)
Mark Andrews (vs. PIT)
Hayden Hurst (vs. PIT)

The Ravens decided to place Maxx Williams on the inactive list last week. This narrows down the Ravens tight end position to a three-way committee that is still a headache but makes both rookies Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst TD-or-bust dart throws this week if you are desperate.

Kickers

Tier 1
Stephen Gostkowski (vs. GB)
Wil Lutz (vs. LAR)

Tier 2
Greg Zuerlein (@ NO)
Graham Gano (vs. TB)
Harrison Butker (@ CLE)
Dan Bailey (vs. DET)
Justin Tucker (vs. PIT)
Robbie Gould (vs. OAK)

Tier 3
Mason Crosby (@ NE)
Dustin Hopkins (vs. ATL)
Matt Prater (@ MIN)
Sebastian Janikowski (vs. LAC)
Matt Bryant (@ WAS)
Jason Sanders (vs. NYJ)

Tier 4
Brett Maher (vs. TEN)
Chandler Catanzaro (@ CAR)
Cody Parkey (@ BUF)
Ka’imi Fairbairn (@ DEN)
Brandon McManus (vs. HOU)
Caleb Sturgis (@ SEA)
Chris Boswell (@ BAL)
Jason Myers (@ MIA)

Tier 5
Daniel Carlson (@ SF)
Greg Joseph (vs. KC)
Ryan Succop (@ DAL)
Steven Hauschka (vs. CHI)

Defenses

Tier 1
Chicago Bears (@ BUF)

Tier 2
Dallas Cowboys (vs. TEN)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ CLE)
Denver Broncos (vs. HOU)
Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ)
Houston Texans (@ DEN)
Baltimore Ravens (vs. PIT)

Tier 3
Carolina Panthers (vs. TB)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. OAK)

Tier 4
Buffalo Bills (vs. CHI)
Oakland Raiders (@ SF)
New York Jets (@ MIA)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ BAL)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. LAC)
Washington Redskins (vs. ATL)
Tennessee Titans (@ DAL)

Tier 5
Los Angeles Chargers (@ SEA)
Detroit Lions (@ MIN)
New England Patriots (vs. GB)
Atlanta Falcons (@ WAS)

Tier 6
Cleveland Browns (vs. KC)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ CAR)
New Orleans Saints (vs. LAR)
Green Bay Packers (@ NE)

Tier 7
Los Angeles Rams (@ NO)

Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Ben Roethlisberger

Follow Sean Koerner on Twitter
@The_Oddsmaker

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# BETS
45
+3
45
+4
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
47
+9.5
46.5
+9.5
43.5
-11
43
-10.5
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
55
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
38
+3
37.5
+3
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-10
47.5
+3.5
47
+3
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
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