49ers vs Seahawks Prediction, Odds: NFL Week 14 Pick

The latest 49ers vs Seahawks odds for NFL Week 14 have San Francisco installed as a 14.5-point favorite on the spread with a game total of 44.5 or 45 depending on the sportsbook. I'll be backing a different over/under for my NFL pick: the 49ers' team total.

The 49ers are on a tear right now and it's hard to see this NFC West showdown being much of a battle, especially with Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith being ruled out with a groin injury. Drew Lock gets the start for Seattle in place of Smith.

San Francisco, of course, waxed Seattle on Thanksgiving, dropping 31 points in an 18-point blowout. The 49ers one-upped that performance last week in their revenge game against the Eagles — a 42-18 drubbing of the defending NFC champions.

The 49ers offense is operating at full throttle and I will continue to back their team total for my 49ers vs Seahawks prediction.

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Brock Purdy is a true MVP candidate and it's easy to see why.

The offense, when Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are healthy, operates at a level of incredible efficiency. When the Niners play at home Purdy is even more dangerous, averaging 11.2 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Entering Week 14, Purdy leads the league in yards per attempt and passer rating; his array of skill players have an incredible 1.8% drop rate, the lowest in football.

Purdy started six games in the 2022 regular season — the 49ers scored 30 or more points in five of those games. In the Wild Card round, San Francisco dropped 505 yards and 41 points against Seattle. Purdy again led the 49ers to 30-plus points in five consecutive games to begin 2023 before injuries to key players bogged down the unit for a short period.

After Samuel and Williams returned to the lineup in Week 10, the 49ers have averaged 33.5 PPG and have exceeded their team total in each of their games.

The Seahawks don't have the personnel to stop the 49ers offense.

Over its last seven games, Seattle has surrendered points on 43% of drives, the highest rate in the league over that span. This coincides with the Seahawks’ inability to stop the run. Over their last six games, running backs are averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

The 49ers rank at the very top of the league on first down, averaging an astounding 7.2 yards per play. If Seattle can't stop the run and the 49ers have their full arsenal of play-action concepts at their disposal, there aren't many paths for the Seahawks to get stops.

To assist in their cause to reach 30 points, the 49ers continue to create havoc against opposing quarterbacks. Geno Smith knows this all too well — he has started four games in his Seahawks career against the Niners and he’s been sacked a total of 14 times.

Smith accounted for just three interceptions over those games, but his passer rating of 67.7 when under pressure clearly shows a player who is greatly affected when defenders are around him. Smith is questionable heading into Sunday, so there is an outside chance it's Drew Lock under center for Seattle.

Lock would be an even better bet to turn the ball over and create short fields for the 49ers offense.

The Seahawks have played six games this year against teams that rank in the top 10 in offensive DVOA. Those teams have averaged 31.1 PPG, scoring more than 30 in five of those contests.

There is no need to overthink this spot. We've seen Purdy for a large enough sample size to realize we are getting value in a line his team has cleared at 73.6% rate. Let’s keep backing this juggernaut at a discounted price.