Steelers vs Bills Same Game Parlay | NFL Wild Card SGP
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Khalil Shakir.
NFL Wild Card weekend has been full of blowouts to this point, with Lions-Rams being the only competitive matchup. That was the most anticipated game of the weekend though, so it is fitting that it lived up to the hype.
However, for my Steelers vs Bills same game parlay, I am going to assume we see more of what we did in the first three games of the weekend.
Steelers vs Bills Same Game Parlay | NFL Wild Card SGP (+995 via FanDuel):
- Alternate Spread Bills -15.5
- Pat Freiermuth 25+ Receiving Yards
- Khalil Shakir 40+ Receiving Yards
Alternate Spread Bills -15.5
Steelers vs. Bills | 4:30 p.m. ET
We are being aggressive here and following the Super Wild Card Weekend trend. We are taking the Bills because, as the spread indicates, they have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Buffalo has won six of its last seven, only losing to Philadelphia in overtime during that stretch.
Pittsburgh similarly fought its way to playoff contention and snuck into the playoffs. The problem the Steelers face in the playoffs is the absence of T.J. Watt. Since Watt joined Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 1-10 in games he has missed.
Despite being a team built on defense, Pittsburgh has been a bend but don’t break style of team. The Steelers rank 21st in yards allowed per game but sixth in points allowed per game.
The Steelers' ability to force turnovers has been what has saved them this year. Pittsburgh ranks eighth in turnovers forced per game, largely driven by Watt’s ability to pressure the quarterback. Now, the Steelers will be missing that pressure and taking on one of the best quarterbacks in the game.
As for the Steelers' offense, they are sticking with Mason Rudolph at quarterback because of his recent success. However, that success has mostly been a product of his receivers creating after the catch. Rudolph is averaging 7.7 yards after catch per completion according to Pro-Football-Reference. That is a yard better than Brock Purdy, the league leader among qualified quarterbacks. That luck will run out against the Bills, who have allowed the sixth-fewest yards after catch.
Without Watt, Pittsburgh’s defense won’t create the big plays it did previously. Without incredible yards after catch, the offense will fizzle behind Rudolph. All signs point to another wild-card blowout — this one in favor of Buffalo.
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Pat Freiermuth 25+ Receiving Yards
Steelers vs. Bills | 4:30 p.m. ET
If Buffalo has a large lead, the Steelers will be forced to throw. Buffalo sports the fourth-best coverage unit in the NFL, highlighted by its excellent cornerback play. The Bills have three cornerbacks that rank top 12 in coverage, per PFF. Add in bad weather and attacking outside against Buffalo screams bad idea.
Pat Freiermuth flashed his potential when he carried the Steelers' offense in Week 12 with nine catches and 120 yards. He has only exceeded that mark three times in the last seven weeks. However, the Steelers should attack through their tight end since he will have the best matchup on the field.
Khalil Shakir 40+ Receiving Yards
Steelers vs. Bills | 4:30 p.m. ET
All year, Khalil Shakir has made the most of his opportunities. He only has 45 targets, but he has an excellent 87% catch rate and 13.6 yards per target. Shakir is the second-best receiver in this offense but has been overlooked.
This week, Shakir will have his opportunity to show he can be a more impactful player with Gabe Davis out. Davis missed last week and Shakir lit up the Dolphins for 105 yards on six catches.
Stefon Diggs is still the team’s alpha receiver, so he will garner most of the attention from the defense, leaving Shakir on a weaker defender and facing more 1-on-1 matchups.
Severe weather has never stopped Josh Allen thanks to his cannon of an arm, and I don’t see it stopping him now. Just like Freiermuth, Shakir will have the matchup advantage and the Bills will look to exploit it.
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