NFL Best Bets & Expert Picks for Wild Card Monday (Jan. 15)
Action Network Design Team. Getty Images.
NFL Best Bets & Expert Picks for Wild Card Monday (Jan. 15)
Before we officially move on to the Divisional Round of the postseason, we have NFL best bets & expert picks for Wild Card Monday, which concludes with Eagles vs Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Our NFL experts have three bets for Eagles-Buccaneers — they've targeted the Buccaneers spread, Eagles team total and the game total over/under. Check out their Eagles vs Buccaneers best bets below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 4:30 p.m. | ||
| 4:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs. Bills
It's really hard to see Pittsburgh's offense putting up many points. Its offense can't attack Buffalo's deep vulnerabilities in the weather, it's not particularly aggressive and the Steelers are way worse in the first half and could get buried early.
Buffalo should win in the trenches, always key but especially in a low-total weather game. The Bills should run the ball and score against a Steelers defense that's typically dreadful without Watt. Buffalo has found a power run game late in the season with James Cook taking on a bigger role, and this sort of game is exactly when that will come in handy. Cook and Josh Allen should control the game with a power rushing attack, and Allen can throw into the wind if needed with his big arm.
Buffalo has also cut turnovers under its new offensive coordinator, and it's hard to see Pittsburgh competing without some goofy Allen turnovers. The Bills have five double-digit wins this year, all by at least 21 points. Buffalo wins comfortably often, with 31 of the last 44 Bills wins coming by double digits (71%). This is a high line, especially with such a low total, but I just don't expect Buffalo to struggle at all here.
Pick: Bills -10 (-105)
Steelers vs. Bills
By Nick Giffen
The Steelers have been using Harris as the go-to RB on running downs, but increasingly they've had Jaylen Warren in on passing downs.
The Bills defense is 17th in DVOA vs run and ninth vs pass, which means they should run more against Bufflalo. The Steelers also likely to be much more run-heavy given the weather.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
By Billy Ward
Just a couple of months ago, this line would've looked ridiculous. The powerhouse Eagles, defending NFC champs, favored by just three against the rebuilding Buccaneers?
A lot has changed since then. Tampa Bay won five of its last six games in order to capture the NFC South crown, averaging more than 27 points per game as Baker Mayfield came to life. Meanwhile in Philadelphia, the Eagles dropped five of six down the stretch, including consecutive losses to the Cardinals and Giants.
Even worse for the Eagles, they lost A.J. Brown to injury while Jalen Hurts suffered a dislocated finger that's been causing him major issues throwing the ball.
Those issues could potentially be overcome in a different matchup, but are a big problem against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers' defense dares opponents to beat them through the air — ranking fifth in yards allowed per carry but 24th though the air.
Add in the Eagles' defensive dysfunction — particularly since handing play-calling duties to Matt Patricia — and it's hard to like Philadelphia's chances. I want the full three points here, but I'd bet that down to -125.
Pick: Buccaneers +3 (-115)
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
With neither quarterback going into this game at 100% health, it is fair to expect the running game to do most of the heavy lifting for both the Eagles and the Buccaneers. Jalen Hurts is going to have to deal with an injury of his own on his throwing hand, and his best two weapons in the passing game in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are both dealing with lower body injuries — with the latter not playing Monday.
The Eagles have scored a touchdown on just 19% of their possessions over the last six weeks, ranking 21st in the league. They have also turned the football over on 19% of possessions, which is a league-worst mark during that same span.
The Buccaneers defense has stuffed runs at or behind the line of scrimmage at a respectable 19% rate, 11th best in the league. Furthermore, their run defense has held up well against mobile quarterbacks, allowing just 3.42 per rush on average against the likes of Hurts, Josh Allen and Justin Fields.
Scoring 24 points is a tall task for an offense that has only mustered that many points in two of its past past six games; and the two performances eclipsing 24 points came against the Cardinals and Giants, who rank 32nd and 21st, respectively, in defensive DVOA.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
It's really difficult to confidently make a bet on either side at the current number. Baker Mayfield’s performances over the past two weeks suggest he’s not at all healthy. The Buccaneers were shut out for three quarters against New Orleans and then went to Carolina and didn’t score a touchdown in a relatively fortunate 9-0 win against the league’s worst team.
If Mayfield were healthier, I think you’d have to play Tampa Bay given the current state of the Eagles defense. Chris Godwin can operate out of the slot and dominate the Eagles linebackers. There’s no clear foil in the secondary for Mike Evans either. The Eagles defense has been carved open by Kyler Murray and Tyrod Taylor in the past two weeks and appears to be heading in the wrong direction under Matt Patricia.
Then there are the offensive concerns for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offense is heavily reliant on the success of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith winning isolation routes on the outside. Smith didn’t play last week and Brown is out this week. Jalen Hurts dislocated his finger during the loss and could have some residual pain while throwing Monday night. We won’t really know just how healthy Smith and Hurts are until they take the field.
The strength of the Buccaneers' defense is up front against the run, and that unit can force the Eagles to be quite methodical and slow to grind the number of possessions down in this game. Philadelphia also has major problems against the blitz that it hasn't been able to solve all year long. No team in the NFL has seen more blitzes than the Eagles, and few teams in the NFL blitz as much as Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers.
Given all of the concerns about the health of Mayfield and the Eagles’ troubles against the blitz, the under is the bet here, similar to the first matchup.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
