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Stefon Diggs Player Prop: Expert Backing WR in Packers vs Bills

Stefon Diggs Player Prop: Expert Backing WR in Packers vs Bills article feature image
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Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Stefon Diggs.

Follow Sean Koerner in the Action App to get all his betting picks.


Stefon Diggs Receptions

Prop Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions
Matchup Packers vs. Bills
Day, Time Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

One way to slow Josh Allen down this season, potentially, has been to blitz him. He ranks 26th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play out of 36 qualified QBs. I expect the Packers, who have blitzed on 41.2% of snaps this season (second in the NFL) to do so early and often tonight.

Allen has targeted Stefon Diggs 25.3% of the time when not facing a blitz, and that number goes up to 31.4% when the opposition does bring extra men. Expect the Bills to be ready for this coming off their bye week and for Allen to target his top option even more than usual tonight.

It’s also worth noting that the Packers have allowed a league-high 74.4% completion percentage to opposing WRs when they blitz.

I also think the Packers keep this game close enough for the Bills to keep their foot on the gas pedal for all four quarters, thus continue throwing the ball. That hasn’t been an issue for Buffalo this season with a big lead, though.

All of this gives Diggs a very high floor in this market. I project Diggs for 7.4 receptions tonight and a 61% chance he clears this number.

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