Sterling Shepard Player Props: PropBetGuy Makes Pick for Cowboys vs Giants

Sterling Shepard Player Props: PropBetGuy Makes Pick for Cowboys vs Giants article feature image

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Sterling Shepard.

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Sterling Shepard Receptions

PropSterling Shepard Over 4.5 Receptions
MatchupCowboys vs. Giants
Time8:15 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

It’s been anything but pretty, but the New York Giants have started 2-0 for the first time since 2016.

New head coach Brian Daboll has looked for creative ways to get his playmakers the ball, and I’m loving Sterling Shepard’s reception prop tonight.

The Giants’ receiver corps is already stretched thin: Kadarius Toney is doubtful for tonight, and Wan’Dale Robinson is out. With Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton struggling just to get on the field, that leaves Shepard with little competition for targets.

It hasn’t happened often, but when Shepard and quarterback Daniel Jones play together, the Giants' WR1 typically gets the ball thrown his way often. In 2020, Shepard was 8-for-10 on this line in full games with Jones. In 2021, he was 3-for-3. And this season, he’s 1-for-2, with the first game being Shepard’s return from an Achilles injury.

In the two-plus season sample, Shepard is averaging 6.3 receptions on 8.4 targets. Half of his 14 targets this season have come within 10 yards of line of scrimmage. With Dallas’ excellent pass rush expected to bring the heat, it would behoove Jones to get the ball out quickly to his reliable route runner.

The Cowboys will key in on Saquon Barkley tonight, and their speedy linebackers (Leighton Vander Esch, Anthony Barr and maybe even Micah Parsons) will be laser focused on stopping Big Blue’s running back. That should leave Shepard in a sneaky spot for some significant volume tonight.

I have the seven-year veteran at six catches tonight.

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