Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets & Picks: Back Mecole Hardman, Raheem Mostert for MVP?

Credit:

Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Mostert

Super Bowl 54: The San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs and hundreds of player props.

My friends, we are in sports betting heaven.

In the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, I will regularly update this piece with the player props I have added to my portfolio.

For my big-picture thoughts on how to approach the market, check out my breakdown on how to bet Super Bowl props like a pro.

In researching for this piece, I’ve relied on the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool, where the props with a Bet Quality Rating of 10 (out of 10) have gone 501-328-19 since the 2018 season.

For a real edge, subscribe to FantasyLabs.

This season, I’m 340-225-10 (+64.5) on NFL player props.

Super Bowl 54: Chiefs vs. 49ers


Odds below via various legal mobile sportsbooks in New JerseyPennsylvaniaIndiana and West Virginia.

Saturday morning

Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman

To Win Super Bowl MVP: +8000 [Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]

In the Super Bowl MVP Draft, I selected Hardman at +7000 on FanDuel, but he offers even more value at BetMGM, and I really like his investment thesis.

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes isn’t the MVP, then the award will likely go to someone who managed not to be outshined by the quarterback — maybe someone who was able to put up numbers without relying on Mahomes for all of his production. And while that logic would seemingly lead me to a defensive player, I just don’t see a Chiefs defender winning this award, so I’m going with Hardman.

In the regular season, Hardman led the team with seven touchdowns, and he’s explosive enough to turn any touch into a long score. Perhaps most importantly, he can contribute as a kick and punt returner and a runner.

What if Mahomes has a mediocre game, but Hardman excels as a returner, breaks off a long run on a jet sweep, has five to six receptions for significant yardage and scores two touchdowns on his various opportunities? He could have a real shot at winning MVP, especially if some of his big plays come in key moments.

49ers RB Raheem Mostert

To Win Super Bowl MVP: +900 [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

In his 10 games with at least 12 opportunities (carries plus targets), Mostert has averaged 104.9 yards and 1.29 touchdowns, and in the AFC Championship, he had an all-time great 226-yard, four-touchdown performance.

If the 49ers win, I expect they will do so by exploiting the Chiefs run defense, which ranked No. 29 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric during the regular season.

49ers RB Tevin Coleman

Under 27.5 rushing yards: -118 [Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Coleman (shoulder) was removed from the injury report on Friday, but that doesn’t really mean he’s healthy. I expect him to play a reduced role in the Super Bowl.

On top of that, he has been playing behind teammate Raheem Mostert since December. Starting in Week 13, Mostert has out-carried Coleman in every game but one — the Divisional Round — when Mostert sat out the second half of the game with a minor injury. In every other game since Week 13, Coleman has had no more than six carries.

Odds below as of Wednesday and via various legal mobile sportsbooks in New JerseyPennsylvaniaIndiana and West Virginia.


Thursday Afternoon

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Under 17.5 fantasy points: -115 [Bet now at FanDuel]

I’ve already bet Garoppolo under 17.5 fantasy points at DraftKings, so you know I have to do it FanDuel, where passers don’t have the upside benefit of the 300-yard passing bonus.

I expect that the 49ers will rely on their running game in the Super Bowl, and in his 12 games with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Garoppolo has a median of 12.5 FanDuel points and has had fewer than 17.5 in eight games.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams

  • Over 15.5 fantasy points: -115 [Bet now at FanDuel]

This line isn’t as good as it is on DraftKings, where Williams benefits from the full point-per-reception scoring, but this prop is still very exploitable.

Williams has played 90.9% of the offensive snaps in the postseason: He’s the clear lead back for the Chiefs. In his 10 games with a snap rate of at least 60%, Williams has a median of 22.7 FanDuel points and has had at least 15.5 FanDuel points nine times.

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill

  • Under 14.5 fantasy points: -110 [Bet now at FanDuel]

I haven’t taken the under on Hill at 15.5 points at DraftKings, but I like the under for him at FanDuel, where he has no 100-yard bonus and just 0.5 points per reception.

Hill has a tough matchup against the 49ers, and in his 27 full games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Hill has a mean of 16.6 FanDuel points per game, but his median is just 11.1.

And in his nine full games with Mahomes this year, Hill has a mean of only 10.

49ers WR Emmanuel Sanders

  • Under 10.5 fantasy points: -112 [Bet now at DraftKings]
  • Under 8.5 fantasy points: -115 [Bet now at FanDuel]

The more I research, the more pessimistic I become about Sanders.

This year, the Chiefs held opposing wide receiver units to the second-fewest fantasy points per game, 26.1 on DraftKings and 21.1 on FanDuel. The matchup is not at all good.

And in his 12 games with the 49ers, Sanders has had fewer than 10.5 DraftKings and 8.5 FanDuel points nine times.

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Emmanuel Sanders

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins

  • Under 8.5 fantasy points: -115 [Bet now at FanDuel]

This line is inflated because of Watkins’ recent postseason performance, but in his eight games with Mahomes and Hill this year, he had a median of 7.3 FanDuel points.

And the matchup is clearly not in his favor.

49ers RB Raheem Mostert

  • Under 12.5 receiving yards: -108 [Bet now at FanDuel]

Mostert isn’t much of a receiving presence. In his 10 games with at least 12 opportunities (targets plus carries), Mostert has had a median of just two targets, one reception and 5.5 receiving yards.

I think that Mostert is a lock for 10-plus touches in the Super Bowl, but I expect him to get almost all of his work via the ground game.


Wednesday Afternoon

I’ve found a slew of valuable fantasy point props at DraftKings and have outlined my top picks below.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams

  • Over 15.5 fantasy points: -112 [Bet now at DraftKings]

If you are currently in New Jersey, stop whatever you are doing and bet this line. If you are not in New Jersey, stop whatever you are doing and get to New Jersey.

Treat this line like the rusty nail it is and hammer it as hard as you can.

Williams has played 90.9% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs in the 2019-20 playoffs, and I expect that he will continue to dominate touches for the backfield in the Super Bowl.

In his 10 Chiefs games with a snap rate of at least 60%, Williams has a median of 27.9 DraftKings points. In that sample, he has gone over 15.5 points in every game but one.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

  • Over 22.5 fantasy points: -125 [Bet now at DraftKings]

The matchup is tough for Mahomes, but in his 27 full games with No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the quarterback has had a median of 26.7 DraftKings points, and he has gone over 22.5 points in all but eight games in the sample.

We have him projected for 25.5 DraftKings points in our FantasyLabs Models.

David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Under 17.5 fantasy points: -125 [Bet now at DraftKings]

In their 18 games this year, the Chiefs allowed an average of 17.6 DraftKings points to starting quarterbacks, so this line makes sense, but Garoppolo might be limited in his opportunities if the 49ers rely on their ground game.

In his 12 games since the 49ers traded for wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Garoppolo has a median of just 12.8 DraftKings points and has had fewer than 17.5 in eight games.

49ers WR Deebo Samuel

  • Under 14.5 fantasy points: -125 [Bet now at DraftKings]
  • Under 17.5 rushing yards: -167 [Bet now at PointsBet]

I like Deebo’s potential for 2020 fantasy leagues, but I’m pessimistic for Super Bowl 54. I expect that the 49ers will lean on the ground game, and the Chiefs are actually a tough matchup for opposing wide receivers.

In the regular season, the Chiefs held wide receiver units to only 26.1 DraftKings points per game. That was the league’s second-lowest mark, just behind the Patriots at 26.0. That might be hard to believe, but it’s true: In 2019, the Chiefs were basically as unfriendly to wide receivers as the Pats were, and if Deebo were facing the Pats, probably wouldn’t think twice about the under.

In his 12 games with Sanders, Samuel has a median of 14.0 DraftKings points. When you account for his matchup, it’s easy to bump his projection down a couple of fantasy points.

As for the rushing prop, I think it’s outrageous. Since December, Samuel has had at least one carry in each of his seven games, and his median is two carries for 28 yards. So I sort of get why this line is so high.

But we’re talking about a wide receiver. He seems unlikely to get more than two carries in this game, and even though he’s averaged 12.2 yards per carry this year, we shouldn’t expect him to approach that rushing average in this game. I think this line should be around 9.5.

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins

  • Under 11.5 fantasy points: -125 [Bet now at DraftKings]

This line is inflated because Watkins has gone off for 47.7 DraftKings points this postseason on the strength of a 9-190-1 receiving performance, but in his eight games this year with Mahomes and Hill, Watkins had a median of 9.5 DraftKings points.

On top of that, he has a tough matchup against the 49ers and their No. 1 pass defense.


Tuesday Afternoon

Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards

This number is simply way too high, and in all fairness, it is significantly lower at other sportsbooks. But this is why it makes sense to have accounts at as many books as possible: You want to be able to jump on lines that are out of line with the larger market.

In Robinson’s 12 full games this season with No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill, he has a median of just 12.5 receiving yards, and in the AFC Championship, he played behind rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman.

Given the tough matchup against the 49ers and their No. 1 pass defense, I love the under.

My Threshold: I’d bet the under to 18.5.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

I expect that the 49ers will be able to limit Mahomes’ opportunities and keep him sequestered on the sideline by attacking the weak Chiefs run defense with their Kyle Shanahan-powered, zone-blocking ground game.

Although he’s the best passing quarterback in the game, Mahomes simply might not have as many offensive snaps as he usually does.

This season, Mahomes has a median of 35 pass attempts and 23 completions. Amazingly, he’s hit both of those numbers exactly in each of his postseason games. To get the under on both of them at plus money is fantastic.

As for the interceptions, Mahomes has thrown just five in 16 games this year, and although the 49ers have an elite pass defense, they are not a ball-hawking unit. In the regular season, they had a middle-of-the-road 12 interceptions.

With -137 odds, there’s a 57.8% implied probability that Mahomes will not throw an interception, but I think his true odds are closer to 65%.

My Thresholds: I wouldn’t bet the attempt and completion props lower than 35.5 and 23.5, but I’d take each of them down to +110. For the interception prop, I’d bet it down to -160.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams

Over 82.5 rushing and receiving yards: -108 [Bet now at FanDuel]

In the 2019-20 playoffs, Williams has played 90.9% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs, and I project him to dominate backfield snaps once again in the Super Bowl.

In his 10 Chiefs games with a snap rate of at least 60%, Williams has a median of 97.5 scrimmage yards and has gone over 82.5 eight times.

My Threshold: I would bet this scrimmage prop up to 89.5 yards.

49ers RB Raheem Mostert

Under 91.5 rushing and receiving yards: -112 [Bet now at FanDuel]

Mostert went off in the NFC Championship for 226 yards on 29 carries and two targets, but he’s not a consistent presence in the receiving game, and he’s had more than 20 carries just one time in his career.

The Chiefs have a subpar run defense, so I can see how Mostert could hit the over, but he’s not guaranteed to dominate touches in the 49ers backfield, and in his 10 games with double-digit carries, he’s had a median of just 79.5 yards from scrimmage.

My Threshold: I would bet this scrimmage prop to down to 85.5

Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman 

Score First Touchdown: +2200

Hardman scored a team-high seven touchdowns for the Chiefs this year (out of 50 touchdowns, 14%), which gives him some theoretical value — assuming that the Chiefs and 49ers have roughly even odds to score the first touchdown — as his +2200 odds have an implied probability of 4.4%.

Hardman will get touches as a kick and punt returner, he is occasionally used as a rusher, last week he played ahead of Demarcus Robinson as the No. 3 wide receiver, and he has the speed to turn any touch into a touchdown.

My Threshold: I’d bet this down to +2000


Monday Afternoon

Raheem Mostert’s Rushing Yards

  • Over 60.5 Rushing Yards: -143 [Bet now at BetMGM]
  • Under 77.5 Rushing Yards: -124 [Bet at FanDuel]

Last week, I added the Mostert rushing over to my prop card and said that the middle was a viable option if you wanted to grab the under at 69.5, but now that you can take the under at 77.5, I am officially shooting for the middle.

I don’t love that the middle is heavily juiced, but a 17-yard middle is massive, and we’re projecting Mostert for 72.6 yards rushing, so I think there’s a high probability of the middle hitting.

Raheem Mostert’s Touchdowns

Over the past eight games, Mostert has scored 12 touchdowns, and he seems to be locked in as the lead back for the 49ers.

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Ross Dwelley, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert

And in eight of their 18 games this year, the 49ers have had a running back score multiple touchdowns. (Thanks to my colleague Chris Raybon for pointing this out on our show today on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.)

The +450 odds give Mostert an 18.2% implied probability of scoring two-plus touchdowns, and given his recent scoring binge and the 49ers’ willingness to give multiple touchdowns in a game to one back, his real odds of scoring twice seem much higher.

Damien Williams’ Touchdowns

In the 2019-20 playoffs, Williams has had a snap rate of 90.9%, and I expect he’ll play the supermajority of the offensive snaps this week.

In his 10 Chiefs games with a snap rate of at least 60%, Williams has scored multiple touchdowns four times.

The +430 odds give Williams an 18.9% implied probability of scoring two-plus touchdowns, but based on his historical numbers, I think his real odds of scoring multiple touchdowns are much higher.


Friday Afternoon

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. 49ers TE George Kittle

Kelce is a -125 favorite in this head-to-head prop, but I think this is pretty much a coin flip — and I actually lean toward Kittle — so I love him at plus odds.

Over the past two seasons, Kelce has a median of 77.5 yards. Over that same time, Kittle has a median of 77. These two guys are incredibly even.

But Kelce has a tough matchup. In the regular season, the 49ers were the No. 1 team in the league against tight ends, holding them to just 34.5 yards receiving per game.

And Kittle’s matchup is decent. The Chiefs allowed 60.1 yards receiving per game to opposing tight ends — the league’s fifth-highest average. And the Chiefs pass defense is likely to be worse than that number indicates, since the secondary will be without safety Juan Thornhill (knee), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 17.

My Threshold: I’d bet Kittle to -105.

Friday Morning

Chiefs TE Blake Bell

  • Over 7.5 Receiving Yards: -114

Bell has had fewer than 7.5 yards receiving in 14 of his 17 games this year, and the 49ers are No. 2 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders). The under looks like a smart play.

But Bell has seen a recent surge in usage, getting two-plus targets in every game but one since Week 15. With the 49ers focusing on wide receiver Tyreek Hill, running back Damien Williams and tight end Travis Kelce, the overlooked Bell could find some soft spots in the 49ers defense and get a few targets, which could push him to the over.

My Threshold: I’d bet the receiving yardage prop up to 9.5.

49ers RB Raheem Mostert

I have been on the Mostert over for weeks, and the water from that well still tastes just as sweet. Mostert saw a career-high 29 carries last week, and I expect he will continue to be used as the lead back with Tevin Coleman (shoulder) nursing an injury.

Mostert has 10-plus carries in each of the past seven games, and I’d be shocked if he had fewer than 12 carries in the Super Bowl. In his 10 games with double-digit carries, Mostert has a median of 74 rushing yards. In seven games with 12-plus carries, that number jumps up to 83.

If you want to shoot for a middle, you can grab under 69.5 at DraftKings or SugarHouse, but I think the most value lies in the over at 60.5.

My Threshold: I’d bet the rushing yardage prop up to 68.5.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

This is a pure arbitrage opportunity thanks to the 60-cent line-shopping spread.

If you want to bet on Mahomes at no risk, you can put one unit on Garoppolo and 3.1 units on Mahomes, who will yield 0.24 units if he wins. If Mahomes loses, nothing will be lost, because Garoppolo’s return will cover the original investment in Mahomes.

If you want to bet on Garoppolo at no risk, you can put one unit on Garoppolo and 2.5 units on Mahomes. If Garoppolo wins, he will yield 3.1 units, 2.5 of which will cover the Mahomes investment and 0.6 of which will be profit.

My Take: I prefer the risk-free bet on Mahomes.


Tuesday Morning

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

The over for this is tempting. This year, the 49ers have played five games against quarterbacks with significant running capability, and in all five, the starting quarterbacks had more than 27.5 yards rushing: Lamar Jackson (101), Russell Wilson (53, 29) and Kyler Murray (67, 34).

Plus, Mahomes has had 53 yards rushing in each of the past two postseason games. His 27-yard rushing touchdown in the AFC Championship Game was the highlight of the weekend.

But even if you remove Mahomes’ injury-shortened Week 7 and limp-legged Week 10, he has a mean of just 18.9 rushing yards and median of 13 across his 33 representative career games.

If you look at what Mahomes has done only in his eight most recent games since returning from injury — a time frame in which he has been especially willing to run — he has a mean of 30.3 rushing yards but a median of 23.

After his recent rushing performances in the playoffs, I expect the 49ers will plan specifically to keep Mahomes contained in the pocket.

The 49ers are No. 1 in the league against the pass (per Pro Football Focus), but if you remove their four games against backup quarterbacks and starters who lost their jobs (Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Andy Dalton and Case Keenum), they allowed a mean of 1.6 touchdowns passing and median of 1.5.

And over their past six games, they’ve allowed a mean of 2.3 and median of two.

As for Mahomes, in his 27 full games with wide receiver Tyreek Hill, he has had a mean of 2.7 and median of three.

With -215 odds, Mahomes would need to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns 68.3% of the time to offer value, and his historical rate of 77.8% (21 of 27 games) suggests he’s capable of hitting the over even in a tough matchup.

My Thresholds: I’d bet the rushing prop down to 23.5 and the passing prop to 2.0.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams

I prefer unders with player props, but there’s value on Williams’ overs: The market is yet to appreciate how fully he has controlled the Chiefs backfield in the playoffs.

Over the past two games, Williams has had a snap rate of 90.9% while getting 29 of the backfield’s 30 carries and 12 of its 14 targets.

In his 10 Chiefs games with a snap rate of at least 60%, Williams has had a median of 63 yards and five receptions.

My Thresholds: I’d bet the rushing prop up to 56.5 and the receptions prop to 4.5.

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins

I think this line might be artificially high because last week Watkins had a 7-114-1 receiving performance for his best game of the season since Week 1.

But in the regular season, the 49ers allowed just 130.3 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receiver units, and I think it’s likely that Watkins will run many of his routes against No. 1 cornerback Richard Sherman.

My Threshold: I’d bet the receiving yardage prop down to 47.5.

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill

In his 27 full games with Mahomes, Hill has a mean of 83.5 yards but a median of just 69, which isn’t so nice.

And in their nine games together this year, Hill has a mean of 73.6 yards and a median of 67.

Hill could have a big game, but given his tough matchup, I’m looking to leverage his volatility.

My Threshold: I’d bet the receiving yardage prop down to 73.5.

49ers WR Emmanuel Sanders

The total for this game is high, and higher-scoring games tend to lean on the passing game, but even so, I have little enthusiasm for Sanders.

Since joining the 49ers in Week 8, Sanders has been the ostensible No. 1 wide receiver, but he’s had a median of just 29 yards receiving across 12 games with the team.

And in the regular season, no team held opposing wide receiver units to fewer receptions and yards receiving than the Chiefs with 9.4 and 119.3 per game.

My Threshold: I’d bet the receiving yardage prop down to 35.5.


Freedman is 580-458-22 (55.9%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App.

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