Super Bowl Props: Bet Travis Kelce & Leonard Fournette To Have Most Receiving & Rushing Yards
PEDRO PARDO/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, outlines his picks to lead Super Bowl 55 in rushing and receiving yards. Find more of his prop bets here.
Leonard Fournette Most Rushing Yards (+175)
The majority of my Super Bowl prop bets are on unders. That’s no coincidence: Sportsbooks are getting significantly more money on the overs — to be fair, who wants to root for a player to do nothing? Still, many of these props are inflated as a result, exposing some value on unders.
That said, there are other ways to bet on big performances from certain players. This prop is a good example: I consider it as a unique way to bet on Fournette’s over.
I’m bullish on Fournette and Ronald Jones against the Chiefs, who rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA against the run — they practically invite teams to run against them. As a result, the Bucs should continue to ride “Playoff Lenny,” who should get 2-3 more carries than Jones in this game.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t expect the Chiefs to run much. When they do, it’s likely to be an even 50/50 split between Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams. Taking Fournette at +175 is also a way to bet against both Kansas City running backs here.
My fair odds for Fournette to lead the Super Bowl in rushing yards is +135. I would only bet this down to +150, but DraftKings is offering +175 as of Thursday.
Travis Kelce Most Receiving Yards (+260)
Like my reasoning for Fournette above, I consider this as a sneaky way to bet on Kelce’s over.
I am right in line with his yardage prop at 95.5 yards. However, he and Tyreek Hill are more likely to have ceiling games with the Chiefs lacking a true No. 3 receiving threat.
The Bucs spread the ball around much more, making it more difficult for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown to hit their ceilings.
I have Kelce’s fair odds to lead the game in receiving yards closer to +170 and would bet it down to +210. FanDuel is offering it at +260 as of Thursday.