Titans vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Pick | NFL Week 11 Bets
Titans vs Jaguars odds have Jacksonville as a 6.5-point home favorite with a game total of 39.5 for NFL Week 11, but a not-so-healthy Trevor Lawrence and an inconsistent Jacksonville offense leave some questions that factor into my Titans vs Jaguars prediction.
The Titans and Jaguars are meeting for the first time since Week 18 last season, a game that decided the AFC South. So much has changed since then for the Titans, who have moved past Malik Willis, away from Ryan Tannehill and Joshua Dobbs and onto 2023 second-round pick Will Levis.
The Jaguars hoped to spring forward another step this year after a playoff berth and win in 2022, but the season has been mired in inconsistency. Jacksonville enters Week 11 with a one-game lead in the AFC South, but the emergence of C.J. Stroud for Houston has the Texans knocking on the door for the division title.
Titans vs Jaguars Odds, Prediction | NFL Week 11
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Titans vs Jaguars Prediction
On paper, this is an excellent matchup for Trevor Lawrence to carve up a mediocre Titans secondary.
The Titans rank 26th in coverage grades (per PFF), 21st in dropback success rate allowed and 28th in EPA per dropback. The secondary has been carved up by Gardner Minshew, Deshaun Watson and even Kenny Pickett.
However, Lawrence's efficiency and success rate numbers should be a lot better than they are, and now he has some health concerns. Lawrence took more hits against San Francisco than he has all season. His knee issue is still lingering, and it has limited the creativity of which Doug Pederson can call the offense: fewer rollouts, play-action bootlegs and less freedom from Lawrence running outside of the pocket.
Given how little Jacksonville is getting from the run game and how much the team depends on early down passing, a limited Lawrence could be an issue for efficiency.
The Jaguars are 15th in offensive yards per drive this season. Lawrence is 19th in adjusted EPA per play and just 10th in success rate. He hasn’t taken a step into the top 10 as a passer, and the result has been an inconsistent Jacksonville offense that is overvalued by the market.
Bet Tennessee vs. Jacksonville at FanDuel
While I don't like the current state of the Jaguars offense, there are even more concerns with Will Levis and the Titans.
It's really hard to run the ball on the Jaguars' defensive scheme, and the Titans have major offensive line problems that they have not been able to properly improve. Of 41 quarterbacks with at least 60 plays this season, Levis has the fourth-lowest success rate. He’s ahead of only Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson and P.J. Walker.
When the defensive secondary hasn’t completely blown the coverage, Levis has taken a ton of sacks and has created next to nothing offensively. He ranks dead last in creativity and sacks taken on well-covered defensive plays, per PFF. And Levis also ranks in the bottom three in completion percentage over expectation, per Next Gen Stats.
The Jaguars' secondary is top five in coverage grades overall, per PFF.
It’s hard to draw up many paths to success for the Titans offense in this game, and I think we’re going to see more struggles for Levis on the road.
Titans vs. Jaguars
Betting Picks & Predictions
The spread for this game has bounced back and forth between Jacksonville -6 and -7 all week, which is about where I think it should be.
Mike Vrabel and the Titans have had a ton of success in the past in these divisional underdog spots, including the finale last season when Tennessee almost won with Joshua Dobbs if not for a late fumble return touchdown to swing the game.
The total has sat on 40 all week, and for me, it's a couple of points too high. The Titans offense is extremely boom or bust under Levis, and the last two weeks against Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay have shown a lot more bust as teams adjust to Levis. Jacksonville's offense is also limited by Lawrence's knee.
I'd bet under 40, and I am also targeting Lawrence's lack of mobility in the prop market with an under 15.5 rush yards prop.
Bets: Under 40 (-110) | Trevor Lawrence under 15.5 rush yards (-110)
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