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The Tennessee Titans (0-3) and Baltimore Ravens (2-1) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Ravens are 11.5-point favorites over the Titans on the spread, with the over/under set at 42.5 total points. Baltimore is a -800 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Tennessee is a +560 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Titans vs Ravens predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 4.
My Titans vs Ravens Prediction
- Titans vs Ravens pick: Titans +11.5 (-106)
My Titans vs. Ravens best bet is on Tennessee to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Titans vs Ravens Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -106 | 42.5 -118o / -104u | +560 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -114 | 42.5 -118o / -104u | -800 |
Titans vs Ravens NFL Week 4 Preview
It is really difficult to get behind the Titans at this point, given how poor they have been statistically through three games.
Tennessee has scored just 12.3 points per game, punted on nearly 60% of its offensive possessions, and has yet to run an offensive play this season while leading.
However, enough data suggests the Titans are the right side to play today, and they have a clear edge in the trenches that will keep this game competitive throughout.
Let’s start with some trends:
- Winless teams entering Week 4 as underdogs have covered at a 59.2% rate. Over the last 10 seasons, that number has increased to 62.1%.
- Winless road underdogs are 27-15 against the spread (ATS) in Week 4, covering the number at a 64.3% rate. When those teams are catching seven or more points, they have covered 71.4% of the time over a 21-game sample size.
- Teams traveling back from Brazil have not played well in their following game the last two seasons — the Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, and Eagles averaged just 18.5 points in the week following their extended travel, with only one of those four teams covering the number in their next game.
Trends are an excellent tool to get you headed in the right direction when handicapping a football game, but how exactly are the Titans going to put up enough points?
The Ravens defense has not been impressive through three games. Baltimore ranks 19th in EPA/play (expected points added), while the Titans offense is 22nd in the same category.
More specifically, the Titans should have success running the football with Tony Pollard. The Ravens have used a sub-package more often than any defense in football, meaning they'll use a lighter box to defend the run often. Tennessee ranks sixth in EPA per rush, while the Ravens defense is 29th in EPA/play allowed on rushing plays.
Pollard has averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry this season, and his 2.8 yards after contact is top 10 league-wide among running backs. There is actually a case to be made, believe it or not, that he will be the more efficient running back in this game — not Derrick Henry.
Henry averaged just 3.4 yards per carry a week ago against a Cowboys defense that was not playing particularly well. Most of his issues can be attributed to the Baltimore offensive line.
Ronnie Stanley has been dealing with a toe injury and will not be 100%, even if he does suit up to play. More importantly, the interior of the offensive line is dealing with turmoil as they head into their matchup with All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
Rookie Vega Ioane will be tasked with facing Simmons at center. Derrick Henry’s advanced metrics dipped a week ago to an average of 0.38 yards per carry before contact when all of the shuffling was taking place — by far his lowest output of the season in a given week — and now the Titans' personnel represents an even greater challenge.
If the Titans can force Lamar Jackson into consistent long down-and-distance situations, they can hold their own from there. The Titans defense ranks 10th in limiting explosive plays this season.
Containing Jackson is virtually impossible, but just one or two timely stops may be enough to keep this game fairly close, as the Tennessee offense will be looking to play ball control.
Titans vs Ravens Prediction, Betting Analysis
As a bettor, it isn't easy clicking the button to back a team playing as poorly as the Titans.
Cam Ward’s performance is becoming a major concern when evaluating his future, but for this matchup in particular, in which he is going to see two-high safeties and light boxes at a disproportionately high rate, the running game should aid him greatly in this spot.
Lastly, as Evan Abrams pointed out in his must-read NFL Betting Primer, for whatever reason, Lamar Jackson's Ravens have fared poorly against the number in the game following a win. Just 33.3% of the time have the Ravens covered in a game over Jackson’s last 18 starts following a victory.
I’ll lean on the historical data here and back the Titans down to +11.
Pick: Titans +11.5 (-106, FanDuel | Play to +11)
