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Our football staff is focused on eight of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 4 on October 4.
First, we'll target Patriots vs. Bills and Rams vs. Eagles in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Broncos vs. 49ers and Chiefs vs. Raiders. We also have picks for Cowboys vs. Texans, Lions vs. Panthers, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL prediction market picks and top trades for the Week 4 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Bills
Our friend, Nick Giffen, releases weekly Luck Rankings, and it is one of the best metrics to use when deciding on which NFL teams to trade.
The Bills come in as the second-luckiest team and the Patriots are 23rd. This tells us that there could be regression inbound for the Bills, and the Patriots are likely due to take a step up if Drake Maye can get it together.
Surprisingly enough, the Patriots defense has been strong. According to PFF's power rankings, the Patriots come in as the fourth-strongest defense.
I think the Patriots keep this game close.
Pick: Buy NO on Bills to win by over 6.5 points (trading near 48¢)
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Packers vs Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is already dead last in EPA/play, and now the Bucs are without Baker Mayfield for the next few games.
The Buccaneers will be forced to turn to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels with Mayfield sidelined. It's a fine matchup, but it's hard to expect much from this offense given the situation.
Green Bay hasn't been much better on offense, and it deals with a makeshift offensive line, and the Packers now travel to Tampa Bay to face a defense that is playing well.
The Bucs are top 5 in defensive EPA/play and success rate. Green Bay's struggling offensive line will have its hands full against Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy approach.
Pick: Buy NO on Over 38.5 total points (trading near 49¢)
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Titans vs Ravens
By Stuckey
If you're looking for a total to target, my strongest lean is Under 42.5 in Baltimore-Tennessee.
The Ravens offense has posted excellent efficiency numbers overall, but their offensive line is quietly entering a nightmare scenario.
After losing star center Tyler Linderbaum in the offseason, Baltimore has seen three consecutive center options go down with injuries. That forces rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane — who has looked great at guard — to slide over to center, a position where he played just 15 snaps at Penn State and eight last week. On top of that, tackle Ronnie Stanley and guard John Simpson are both banged up.
Going up against the physical strength of Tennessee's interior defensive line, Baltimore is bound to suffer from snap miscommunications, pre-snap penalties, and protection breakdowns, especially coming off an international trip to Brazil.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee's offense offers very little threat of exploding. The Titans are down to a third-string guard in Atonio Mafi, who is virtually unplayable and is going to get Cam Ward in serious trouble against Baltimore’s front seven.
Ward continues to look completely nonchalant under center — there is zero pop, no downfield aggressiveness, and the playcalling remains a disaster. Tennessee’s pass blocking has been passable at times, but it simply lacks the explosive playmakers to manufacture quick drives.
While Lamar Jackson will inevitably make a few magical plays against a weak Titans secondary, Baltimore's makeshift offensive line and Tennessee's lifeless offense will likely keep the clock running continuously.
Expect a sluggish, mistake-riddled game that stays Under 42.5.
Pick: Buy NO on Over 42.5 total points (trading near 52¢)
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Rams vs Eagles
This is another play using Nick Giffen's Luck Rankings.
If you watched last week's game against the Broncos, you know that the Rams had almost everything go against them that possibly could.
A botched DPI call resulted in a loss that ultimately hurts their record, but is not indicative of their overall talent level or how they have played throughout the first three weeks of this season.
The Rams have performed better than the Eagles in multiple facets, while facing the eighth-toughest schedule to date. They should take care of their NFC counterpart here.
Pick: Buy YES on Rams to win by over 3.5 points (trading near 51¢)
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Cowboys vs Texans
This is an awesome matchup, with an explosive offense vs. a havoc-creating defense. It is also an awful defense vs. a stagnant offense.
The Texans have been the unluckiest team in football so far, according to Nick Giffen's luck rankings, indicating that they are underperforming and a bounce-back may be due. Star wide receiver Nico Collins has also been cleared to return for this game, so Houston's offense could potentially show more life.
I think we'll see the Texans get a much-needed win here against the Cowboys.
Pick: Buy YES on Texans to win by over 2.5 points (trading near 54¢)
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Broncos vs 49ers
Both of these teams have played very slow this season.
The Broncos are averaging 61 offensive snaps per game, and the 49ers are averaging 57.7 offensive snaps per game.
This sets up a low-scoring environment for this matchup.
The Broncos have a 7.41% turnover-worthy play rate, indicating that when they do have the ball, they are susceptible to giving it up and killing their drives at any time.
Both teams are on the higher end of Nick Giffen's Luck Rankings, indicating that scoring regression may be inbound.
Pick: Buy NO on Over 47.5 total points (trading near 48¢)
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Chiefs vs Raiders
The Raiders' 3-0 start is impressive, but Kirk Cousins' start to the season may not be as impressive as many want to believe.
Cousins' big-time throw rate is the exact same as his turnover-worthy play rate, whereas Patrick Mahomes' big-time throw rate is 5.22% compared to his 0.87% turnover-worthy play rate.
The Raiders are also one of the luckiest teams in the NFL, indicating that regression is likely on the horizon.
Pick: Buy YES on Chiefs to win by over 4.5 points (trading near 51¢)
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Lions vs Panthers
Detroit's offense needs no introduction. The Lions have scored exactly 31 points in all three games to begin the season — and now they face a Carolina defense likely missing both starting corners.
On the other side of the script, Carolina's offense has been a pleasant surprise. The Panthers' coaching staff has totally revamped the passing game; Bryce Young leads the league in yards through three games.
Carolina ranks second in neutral pass rate and second in pace. Detroit's scuffling defense ranks 31st in EPA/play.
I'll take Over 50.5 to close out the Sunday slate.
Pick: Buy YES on Over 50.5 total points (trading near 52¢)
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