The Tennessee Titans (3-13) and Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) will square off in NFL Week 18 on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida is set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Jaguars are 13.5-point favorites over the Titans on the spread, with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. Jacksonville is a -800 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Tennessee is +575 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Titans vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.
Titans vs Jaguars Picks, Prediction
- Titans vs Jaguars pick: Over 46.5 (-110)
My Jaguars vs. Titans best bet is on the Over at 46.5 total points, with the best price currently available at bet365. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Titans vs Jaguars Preview for NFL Week 18
The Jaguars can lock up the AFC South division title with a win at home against an improving Titans squad.
The Jaguars have won seven straight games and have covered the number in all seven of those contests. One of those was a 25-3 victory in Tennessee in Week 13.
However, I am not willing to lay such a large number in a game Jacksonville expects to win and may have one eye on their eventual playoff matchup next week.
Instead, the total provides value because each team has been passing the ball more than expected in recent weeks. This trend should continue as Tennessee represents the definition of a pass-funnel defense.
Opposing offenses continue to attack the Titans through the air, and Jags HC Liam Coen will do the same. Over the past month, the Jacksonville offense ranks 2nd league-wide in pass rate over expectation during that span.
The Titans just surrendered 332 passing yards to Saints QB Tyler Shough a week ago, and back in Week 13 when these teams met, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence was highly efficient — averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and finishing with a 111.5 passer rating.
With the Jags averaging under three yards per rush and gaining just three first downs on the ground against the Titans in their previous meeting, I expect the plan to be quite clear here, and it should lead to more opportunities for explosive plays that can put points on the board in a hurry.
The Titans managed just three points in that game, but there are reasons for optimism for this offense this week and beyond.
Cam Ward has been steadily improving throughout this season, and it is evident that he has the arm talent and playmaking ability to be a franchise quarterback that can lead this team to the playoffs in the future.
Ward has accounted for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games as he has continued gaining confidence.
Jaguars’ defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile used a high number of Cover-3 and Cover-6 looks to defend Ward back in Week 13.
While Ward struggled in that game, he has done very well against those two zone looks this season, averaging 7.8 yards per pass against them.
Over his last four games, Ward has passed for eight touchdowns and thrown only one interception. His 6.3 adjusted net yards per attempt, a metric that takes into account things such as sack yardage lost, has also been an improvement and ranks above the likes of Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Sam Darnold over that span.
It’s also worth noting that only Ward’s performance against the 49ers during that span came against a defense ranking in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA.
Titans vs Jaguars Best Bets, Analysis
Games involving the Titans have averaged 54 total points scored over their last four games.
Outside of a game against an injury-riddled Chiefs team, their defense has surrendered 31 points per game since Week 12.
With Liam Coen's orchestration of the Jaguars offense humming, 31-34 points feels more than reasonable in this spot at home.
Cam Ward should do enough to get to 17+ as this game gets over the total at its current price.
Titans vs Jaguars Betting Prediction
- Over 46.5 (-110)
Titans vs Jaguars Weather Forecast
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
