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Jaguars vs Texans Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 3

Jaguars vs Texans Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 3 article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: C.J. Stroud (left) and Trevor Lawrence (right).

Jaguars vs Texans Odds

Sunday, Sept. 24
1 p.m. ET
Jaguars Odds
-110o / -110u
Texans Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Jaguars vs. Texans odds have Jacksonville laying 7.5 points in NFL Week 3.

The Texans have dealt with numerous injuries to begin the 2023 season and it will not get any easier for them against their AFC South rival as they will be missing cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., safety Jalen Pitre and middle linebacker Denzel Perryman. This is the week the Jaguars offense gets back on track, which should lead to a high-scoring affair.

Let's preview the game and make our Jaguars vs. Texans pick.

Jaguars vs. Texans

Matchup Analysis

Trevor Lawrence has gotten out of the blocks slowly, but upon further examination, it may just be a two-game outlier. Lawrence has completed 67% of his passes on first and second down, but only 46% of his attempts on third down.

Third down has simply been somewhat unlucky for the Jags offense, with several near misses. Not converting on third down obviously stifles drives, but those numbers should increase back to the mean for Lawrence moving forward.

The Texans' porous run defense, which is 32nd in DVOA, should also assist Jacksonville on third downs. Games are not won and lost with the running game in the modern NFL, but creating explosive runs and limiting long down-and-distance situations truly matters in sustaining drives. 

The running game should also help protect Lawrence. With the Jaguars looking at a positive game script as substantial favorites, there shouldn’t be many situations where the Texans' pass rush has the opportunity to get to the quarterback.

Bet Jacksonville vs. Houston at FanDuel

Jaguars -7.5

Texans +7.5

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When Lawrence has been pressured this season, his passer rating is 19.9, but when he is kept clean that rating skyrockets to 100.7. Lawrence still has plenty of talent with a remarkably high big-time throw percentage (9.2%). We can expect a statistical takeoff in this matchup against a Texans defense without Stingley, who is PFF’s 28th-best coverage corner.

Some may point to the Texans defense ranking second in pass rush win rate as a reason to be concerned about the Jaguars offense, but that metric has more to do with the deficiencies of the Ravens and Colts offensive lines. The Colts averaged 6.2 yards per play against Houston a week ago behind a 75.8% completion percentage and 5.5 yards per rush. Jacksonville should have no problem executing a similar game plan.

While I am confident in Jacksonville doing its part in putting points on the board, I am also optimistic about the Texans being able to hang around.

According to Next Gen Stats, Stroud has been pressured at the third-highest rate this season. When he has avoided pressure, he has a 104.7 passer rating and a 91 Next Gen passing score, which puts him second when throwing from a clean pocket. Stroud has also been efficient on third down, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. These are important numbers because the Jaguars defense has begun the year with a pass rush win rate that ranks 31st, according to ESPN. 

Houston currently leads the NFL in plays per game, running over 80 plays on average in its first two games. If the Texans face a deficit, they have already shown a willingness to let Stroud throw until the final whistle.

Jaguars vs. Texans

Betting Picks & Predictions

I expect Doug Pederson to keep the pedal down to get the Jags offense back on track. With C.J. Stroud getting more comfortable, I expect the Texans to answer on the scoreboard.

This total is clearly deflated due to the Jaguars' loss to the Chiefs — a game that went well under the total.

Let’s take advantage of this total staying below some key numbers.

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