The NFL introduced a new award last season to recognize the league's best offensive lineman: Protector of the Year.
This award is unlike any other because it’s chosen not by the usual 50 voters but by a panel of six retired NFL linemen — two tackles, two centers, two guards.
That makes this award intriguing but also difficult to predict – though that didn’t stop us last year, when we grabbed an inaugural winning ticket for Bears guard Joe Thuney!
There's still not much Protector of the Year history to build a winning profile from, though we do have one year of finalists and a winner now.
Are these guys choosing a stalwart favorite or a young up-and-comer? A member of a great all-around line or one standout on an otherwise average unit?
NFL Protector of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | Recognizable Names We're Not Betting |
| 2 | The Long Shots |
| 3 | Protector of the Year Contenders |
| The Picks |
What Can We Learn from Our Inaugural 2025 Results?
The panel of six experts chose six finalists for Protector of the Year: tackles Penei Sewell and Garrett Bolles, guards Joe Thuney and Quinn Meinerz, and centers Creed Humphrey and Aaron Brewer.
It’s notable that we got two guys at each position – exactly reflecting the makeup of the six-man panel. That’s good news for interior linemen. Typically we think of tackles as the stars of the offensive line, but tackles made up under half of the finalists, and a tackle did not win.
Centers, in particular, get a little extra boost here. NFL teams start two tackles and two guards, of course, but just one center. Given that — and the fact that our only winner so far was an interior linemen — we dare not overlook the guys on the inside.
It’s probably also notable that the inaugural winner, Joe Thuney, was a name brand and a known commodity. Thuney has played a lot of winning seasons with the Patriots and Chiefs. He’s a name football fans know, and he’s the senior name among the finalists.
Last year, we made an educated guess for Protector of the Year based on other NFL awards.
Almost all of the awards tend to have a winning component. Naturally, voters are going to pay more attention to high-impact guys on winning teams, and last year’s panel showed a similar bias. Five of the six finalists were from winning teams.
Obviously, we need a great offensive lineman. Good luck finding stats to support your case, but PFF grades are probably a safe place to start.
We want a great offensive line, too. Two of last year’s finalists played for the Broncos, who finished 1st in PFF grade to end the season. Thuney and Brewer played for two of the league’s best run-blocking lines, which both took notable leaps forward in 2025.
We also probably want a known name. This panel knows their stuff, but they're also retired players — they're probably not going to spend hundreds of hours watching film of backup Browns guards.
There's realistically a pool of maybe 30 players who could win this award, and honestly, that might be double the actual number.
The same thing happens with defensive awards — name recognition almost always narrows the field and carries the day.
So we're still mostly guessing here, but I'm looking to bet Protector of the Year on a well-known name widely accepted among the best few players at his position playing for a great offensive line on a winning team.
Easy enough! Let’s look at some 2026 candidates.
Protector of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| Penei Sewell | 19% |
| Tristan Wirfs | 12% |
| Lane Johnson | 10% |
| Creed Humphrey | 6% |
| Garett Bolles | 6% |
| Trent Williams | 6% |
| Andrew Thomas | 4% |
| Joe Alt | 4% |
| Quinn Meinerz | 4% |
| Quenton Nelson | 4% |
This is the top-10 via Kalshi as of 3:48 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Recognizable Names We're Not Betting
T Jordan Mailata, Eagles (2%)
Mailata is a better run protector than pass protector. He's widely regarded as an elite tackle — and I agree — but if this is Lane Johnson’s farewell season, would the voters really stray from the popular narrative and give the award to Mailata?
T Rashawn Slater, Chargers
T Joe Alt, Chargers (4%)
Slater and Alt have a heavy burden with the interior of the Chargers' line already banged up. These two will also into each other's share of the vote. Alt at 12% on Kalshi is, frankly, nuts and an easy pass for me.
G Quinn Meinerz, Broncos (4%)
While he was a finalist last year, it's hard to see Meinerz getting the hardware when everyone agrees Garret Bolles is the superior player on his own line.
G Joe Thuney, Bears (3%)
It's tough to see Thuney going back-to-back for the first two years of this award.
T Dion Dawkins, Bills (3%)
Dawkins is a bit too much of an insider considering he helped create the award. He’s also not quite good enough.
T Chris Lindstrom, Falcons (1%)
T Kolton Miller, Raiders (1%)
C Aaron Brewer, Dolphins
These three are hipster sleeper candidates. These are the names you blurt out when you want to sound smart.
Brewer was actually a finalist last year, but he's not playing for a winning team this year given the state of the Dolphins.
Protector of the Year Long Shots
T Andrew Thomas, Giants (7%)
There's a lot to like about Thomas — he's widely regarded as a stud, this O-line in general took a big leap last year, and I'm in on Giants Island this year … but at 7%, that's already all priced in, and then some.
T Christian Darrisaw, Vikings (6%)
Darrisaw has to stay healthy — top 10 if he is — but this could be a way to reward a great Vikings season with an award.
I like both of these players and have them around 5% personally — but there's just not enough of an edge with the obvious injury downside.
Protector of the Year Contenders
T Penei Sewell, Lions (17%)
Sewell entered last year as the favorite to win this award. I did not agree with the sentiment then, and I still don't agree with it now.
Everyone thinks he’s the best tackle in football — and he probably is — but that’s not necessarily what this award is for. Sewell is also switching to left side this year, which creates an interesting narrative but could also be a tougher job for him.
It's hard to invest in such a short favorite when I have the Lions dropping from the No. 1 offensive line in the NFL to No. 17 with Cade Mays out.
The Lions in general are moving in the wrong direction, so Sewell remains an easy pass for me at such a steep price.
C Creed Humphrey, Chiefs (7%)
I bet on Humphrey last year, but at half the price. He's the No. 1 center in the NFL on an offensive line that's trending up, but he's already properly priced in the market.
G Quenton Nelson, Colts (4%)
Nelson is presumed to be the best guard in the league for its best run-blocking line. The Colts, who I have ranked as the No. 3 offensive line, could have a big offensive season like they did last year running the ball.
Considering a guard won the award last year, I like Nelson at 4% so we'll make him our first addition to this year's portfolio.
T Lane Johnson, Eagles (10%)
Johnson is an obvious choice for the award. He's awesome and has an amazing narrative with this being a farewell season.
He's still an elite pass blocker on one of the elite offensive lines in the league, though his metrics have slid a touch and he always misses a few games.
The price point at 10% is too high for my taste, though. I’ll pass, but he's definitely in play.
T Trent Williams, 49ers (7%)
If we’re talking Lane Johnson legacy pick, why not Williams?
It could be his last year too at age 38, and his metrics are still awesome as ever, and probably better than Johnson's at this point.
Williams was my pick last year and at 7% I’ll run it back again.
T Garret Bolles, Broncos (9%)
The Broncos have the consensus best line in football.
Bolles is the best player on the Denver line, though he's more regarded as a top-10 tackle than the No. 1. guy.
It makes sense for him to be in the mix after already being a finalist last season, but 9% is too rich.
T Tristan Wirfs, Buccaneers (8%)
This is my guy this year.
Wirfs is clearly the best player on a Buccaneers line that could end up being the best in the NFL.
I also expect the Bucs to win double-digit games, maybe even 12+ and push for the seeds at the top of the NFC, so this would be a great way to reward a surprisingly stellar Tampa Bay season.
Wirfs would be my first pick for Protector of the Year even with out odds, so he's a really easy buy at 8% to top our portfolio.
Protector of the Year Picks
- Tristan Wirfs (8%; Kalshi) — 0.75 units
- Quenton Nelson (4%; Kalshi) — 0.5 units
- Trent Williams (7%; Kalshi) — 0.25 units
