Titans vs Chiefs Sunday Night Football Odds & Picks
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Titans vs. Chiefs Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 45.5 -114o / -106u | +500 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 45.5 -114o / -106u | -700 |
The last meeting between these two teams came in Week 7 of 2021, when the Titans stunned the Chiefs with a 27-3 win as a four-point dog in Nashville. Kansas City's three-point total marked its lowest of the Andy Reid era. Will the game follow a similar script this time around in Arrowhead?
Titans vs. Chiefs Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Chiefs match up statistically:
Titans vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 22 | 24 | |
| Pass DVOA | 19 | 26 | |
| Rush DVOA | 15 | 17 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 1 | 10 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 15 | |
| Rush DVOA | 14 | 1 | |
With Ryan Tannehill (ankle) trending toward a game-time decision, the Titans have but one way to win this contest, and that is to shorten the game.
The Titans are already well-versed in this strategy. Their 47.6% rate of designed runs (excluding kneel-downs) is the second highest in the NFL. And per Football Outsiders, their average of 33.62 seconds between plays in neutral situations is slowest in the league.
Derrick Henry and company should be able to execute their game plan against a bend-but-don't-break Chiefs run defense that is 25th in success rate (44.5%, per RBsDM.com) but 13th in explosive rush rate (8.4%).
When the Chiefs have the ball, Reid figures to dial up a pass-heavy game plan against a defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the run, but 15th versus the pass. You're never going to fully contain a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but the Titans have what it takes to at least make Kansas City work for its points, primarily due to three factors:
1) Pressure. Per Pro Football Reference, the Titans have generated pressure at the eighth-highest rate (24.9%) despite blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate, which is always key against Mahomes, whose passer rating is 123.0 when kept clean, 116.4 when blitzed, but 80.1 under pressure.
Mahomes won't take many sacks (only seven on the year), but his yards per attempt drops from 8.9 in a clean pocket to 6.7 under pressure. The Titans' pass rush starts with Jeffery Simmons, who is the NFL's best interior lineman this side of Aaron Donald. Simmons leads all interior lineman in pressures per game with 4.43.
2) Limiting explosives. The Titans allow explosive passes at a 12.4% clip, which ranks 11th best. They allow explosive runs 8.0% of the time, which ranks 12thbest.
They're able to limit big plays thanks to strong safety play. Kevin Byard is a First-Team All-Pro, and Andrew Adams, who will fill in for the injured Amani Hooker (shoulder), has graded out as the 13th-best safety among 87 qualifiers at PFF through eight weeks.
3) Third down. What makes the Chiefs so tough to stop is they are incredibly difficult to get off the field on third down, as they lead the league with a 51.9% conversion rate.
This is the toughest matchup they could face, however, as the Titans are allowing opponents to convert on a league-low 25.6% of third downs. The Titans have two linebackers with top-20 PFF coverage grades among 78 qualifiers in David Long (17th) and Zack Cunningham (20th). Those two along with Byard and Adams at least give the Titans options when trying to slow down Mahomes' favorite target on third down, Travis Kelce.
Betting Picks
If you're picking a side in this game, good luck. Backing the Chiefs means betting against Mike Vrabel, who is 73% ATS when the Titans are dogs by more than a field goal. But backing the Titans means betting against Andy Reid off a bye (63% ATS).
Regardless of how it plays out from a side perspective, the under is a good bet to hit. If the Titans are unsuccessful at running the ball and playing keep-away, they're unlikely to score many points at all, and the Chiefs won't need to keep their foot on the gas late. And if the Titans are successful, it will limit the total possessions and points in the game.
Per our Action Labs data, the under is 43-25-1 (63%) when the Chiefs are a home favorite under Reid, covering by 4.08 points per game.
When the Chiefs are favored by double digits, that mark improves to 14-5, including 10-4 (71%) with Mahomes.
And when a total opens just under 48 but never reaches that number, it's usually an indicator that the under is the sharp side. Since 2015, totals that opened at 47 or 47.5 and stayed put or decreased up to 4.5 points are 79-34-1 (70%), covering by an average of 4.66 points per game.
That mark improves to 14-5 (76%) when the home team is favored by double digits, covering by an average of 5.34 points per game.
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