Titans vs Packers Picks, Prediction & Updated Odds
Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Vrabel (left) and Matt LaFleur.
Titans vs. Packers Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -104 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +148 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -176 |
We have an intriguing matchup on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 11 as the Titans face the Packers at Lambeau Field.
There are a couple matchups in this game that benefit the visitor. Let's break down whether it's enough for us to bet Tennessee.
Titans vs. Packers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Packers match up statistically:
Titans vs. Packers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 21 | 17 | |
| Pass DVOA | 17 | 8 | |
| Rush DVOA | 16 | 30 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 9 | 9 | |
| Pass DVOA | 15 | 13 | |
| Rush DVOA | 6 | 1 | |
When the Titans Have the Ball
There’s no mystery as to what the Titans' offensive game plan will be here, and that will be to feed Derrick Henry early and often.
This is a great spot for Henry against a Packers run funnel defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the pass and 30th against the run. The Packers defense has been hit hard the past couple of weeks with injuries, having lost stud edge defender Rashan Gary for the season. Green Bay will also be without LB De’Vondre Campbell for Thursday Night.
We’re at the point in the season where defenses start to get worn down and struggle to slow down Henry. That could especially be the case for the Packers, who are coming off an overtime win over the Cowboys on Sunday that saw their defense on the field for 79 plays.
Titans +3.5 | Packers -3.5
When the Packers Have the Ball
The Packers offense finally showed signs of life last week and scored 30+ points for the first time this season. Ironically, it came in a game where Aaron Rodgers attempted a season-low 20 pass attempts.
The Packers leaned heavily on their RB duo of Aaron Jones/AJ Dillion in order to avoid the Cowboys stingy pass defense. However, they will need a completely different game plan against a Titans defense that ranks first in DVOA against the run and 13th against the pass. Having to shift gears like that could be difficult on a short week.
The Titans will be getting their top cornerback, Kristian Fulton, back this week and may also see stud defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons return. Simmons’ return would give the Titans a huge edge against a banged up Packers O-line. LT David Bakhtiari and LG Elgton Jenkins have yet to practice this week and their availability for Thursday Night is in serious jeopardy. If one or both of them misses the game, it would be a massive blow to the offensive line and make it even tougher for the Packers to move the ball.
Betting Picks
Tonight’s matchup sets up perfectly for the Titans and Mike Vrabel, who’s 20-7 against the spread as an underdog of 3 or more. The Packers struggle to defend the run and will be missing two of their top defenders tonight, as well as coming off a tough performance against Dallas. Having to stop Henry after playing 79 plays just four days prior is not ideal.
The Packers offense could struggle to move the ball if they keep their run-heavy game plan. If either Bakhtiari and/or Jenkins miss the game, I’ll like this bet even more.
Either way, I love the fact we are getting the key number of 3.5 here as this should be a close, low-scoring game. I think the Titans have a good chance of winning this outright, but I like the added insurance of winning even if they lose by three.
The line was at Titans +3 on Wednesday night, but it's gradually shifting to +3.5 at most sportsbooks, including FanDuel. Check out our live odds page to get the latest spreads for Thursday Night Football.
Pick: Titans +3.5 |
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