Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings for Week 1: Straight-Up & Against the Spread Picks

Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings for Week 1: Straight-Up & Against the Spread Picks article feature image
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  • Get Sean Koerner's projections for every NFL game in Week 1, both straight-up and against the spread, to use in your pick'em pools.
  • His models like the Rams, Bears, Vikings, Bengals and Panthers to cover, in particular.
  • Get his full pick'em rankings and percentages below.

Straight up. Against the spread.

Whether you’re playing in your office’s (virtual) pool or in a higher-stakes contest like DraftKings’ National Championship, I’ve created pick ’em confidence ratings to help you make your picks each week — complete with a custom against the spread edge calculator.

These pick ’em ratings are based on my NFL Power Ratings, which help power the model projections in our new PRO Report. They account for various factors such as travel, injuries and any news that could impact betting odds.

In theory, those odds should be fairly close to my ratings, but if we can identify any differences between the two, we can exploit them.

Now let’s get right to my Week 1 pick ’em confidence ratings for straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) contests.


Jump to ATS Ratings


Straight Up NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings

Rank
Team
Opponent
Win Prob%
1
Chiefs
vs. HOU
79%
2
Ravens
vs. CLE
75%
3
Colts
@ JAX
74%
4
Patriots
vs. MIA
73%
5
49ers
vs. ARI
72%
6
Bills
vs. NYJ
72%
7
Eagles
@ WAS
68%
8
Steelers
@ NYG
67%
9
Vikings
vs. GB
64%
10
Saints
vs. TB
60%
11
Raiders
@ CAR
58%
12
Lions
vs. CHI
54%
13
Titans
@ DEN
54%
14
Chargers
@ CIN
54%
15
Seahawks
@ ATL
54%
16
Cowboys
@ LAR
54%
17
Falcons
vs. SEA
46%
18
Rams
vs. DAL
46%
19
Bengals
vs. LAC
46%
20
Bears
@ DET
46%
21
Broncos
vs. TEN
46%
22
Panthers
vs. LV
42%
23
Buccaneers
@ NO
40%
24
Packers
@ MIN
36%
25
Giants
vs. PIT
33%
26
Washington
vs. PHI
32%
27
Jets
@ BUF
28%
28
Cardinals
@ SF
28%
29
Dolphins
@ NE
27%
30
Jaguars
vs. IND
26%
31
Browns
@ BAL
25%
32
Texans
@ KC
21%

ATS NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings

The following ATS ratings are based on odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, but your contest may use different lines, so I’ve created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.

Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate.

Rank
Team
Opponent
Spread
1
Vikings
vs. GB
-2.5
2
Rams
vs. DAL
+3
3
Bengals
vs. LAC
+3
4
Bears
@ DET
+3
5
Panthers
vs. LV
+3.5
6
Buccaneers
@ NO
+3.5
7
Jaguars
vs. IND
+8
8
Broncos
vs. TEN
+2.5
9
Patriots
vs. MIA
-6.5
9
Cardinals
@ SF
+7
11
Browns
@ BAL
+8
12
Giants
vs. PIT
+5.5
13
Chiefs
vs. HOU
-9
14
Washington
vs. PHI
+5.5
15
Bills
vs. NYJ
-6.5
16
Seahawks
@ ATL
-1.5
17
Falcons
vs. SEA
+1.5
18
Jets
@ BUF
+6.5
19
Eagles
@ WAS
-5.5
20
Texans
@ KC
+9
21
Steelers
@ NYG
+5.5
22
Ravens
vs. CLE
-8
23
49ers
vs. ARI
-7
23
Dolphins
@ NE
+6.5
25
Titans
@ DEN
-2.5
26
Colts
@ JAX
-8
27
Saints
vs. TB
-3.5
28
Raiders
@ CAR
-3.5
29
Lions
vs. CHI
-3
30
Chargers
@ CIN
-3
31
Cowboys
@ LAR
-3
32
Packers
@ MIN
+2.5

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