Zach Ertz Prop Pick: Why There’s Value Betting On Under 7.5 Touchdowns In 2020


Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz Prop Pick for 2020

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Zach Ertz has established himself as one of the NFL’s premier pass-catching tight ends, but his production has primarily come via volume rather than touchdowns.

The league average TD rate (TD per reception) for tight ends is roughly 8.2%, but Ertz’s career TD rate is 6.7%. That said, I’m projecting him to regress toward the league average with a 7.5% rate this season due to his expected decrease in overall volume.

Ertz has averaged 6.03 receptions per game over the past four seasons, but this season I’m expecting him to average closer to 5.2 per game. So at 15.0 projected games played with 5.2 receptions per game, 10.5 yards per catch and a 7.5% TD rate, I arrive at the following season-long projections for Ertz: 78 receptions, 820 receiving yards and 5.9 receiving TDs.

We have to keep in mind just how decimated the Eagles’ wide receiver depth chart was for most of the 2019 season, which forced Carson Wentz to target Ertz even more last season. Here were the number of games missed by their top-three WRs:

  • Alshon Jeffery: 7
  • DeSean Jackson: 14
  • Nelson Agholor: 5

We should see Ertz’s target share drop a bit with all of the Eagles’ weapons back in 2020.

Another major factor that could cause his target share to decline is Dallas Goedert entering the prime of his career. Goedert is heading into Year 3 at just 25 years of age while Ertz will turn 30 during the season. In the next one to two seasons, we could see a change in the guard with Goedert eventually overtaking Ertz as being the team’s top TE.

The expected downward trend for Ertz is another reason why I like the under on 7.5 receiving TDs.

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