The Buffalo Sabres (11-11-4) and Philadelphia Flyers (14-8-3) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Flyers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (+110 / -110). The Flyers are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Sabres are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sabres vs. Flyers predictions and NHL picks.
Sabres vs. Flyers Odds, Pick
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 6 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 6 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Sabres vs. Flyers Spread: Sabres +1.5 (-230), Flyers -1.5 (+190)
- Sabres vs. Flyers Over/Under: 6 (+110 / -130)
- Sabres vs. Flyers Moneyline: Sabres +105, Flyers -125
Sabres vs. Flyers Preview
Buffalo Sabres
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in each of Buffalo's past five games. This shouldn't be that surprising, given the team's talent on the blue line and the lack thereof in the forward group.
This season, the Sabres are struggling to generate high-danger scoring chances. Entering this matchup, they rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
At the same time, Buffalo is suppressing high-danger scoring chances efficiently at the other end of the ice, ranking in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing up this defensively sound team is goaltender Colten Ellis, whose volatility is the reason that this total is set as high as 6.5. Ellis' performance has been all over the place, allowing six goals to the lowly Calgary Flames a few weeks ago.
However, that outing was sandwiched between two extremely strong performances against more competent offenses in the Minnesota Wild and Edmonton Oilers. Ellis surrendered two or fewer goals in each of those two outings.
Philadelphia Flyers
Meanwhile, Philadelphia has received more consistent goaltending from Dan Vladar, who is projected to guard the cage on Wednesday. Through 16 starts, Vladar is 10-5-1 with a .906 SV% and 2.59 GAA.
Vladar also ranks 11th in goals saved above expected.
Like Ellis, Vladar plays behind a defensively sound group. This season, the Flyers rank ninth in xGA/60.
Also like Ellis, Vladar may not receive much goal support, considering that Philadelphia ranks 30th in xGF/60.
Sabres vs. Flyers Prediction
Both of these teams are stronger defensively than they are offensively. Meanwhile, Vladar has proven that he can handle teams that generally struggle to produce high-danger scoring chances.
The main question mark is Ellis, who has proven inconsistent between the pipes. However, that means his stellar games are just as likely as his bad ones, and given Philadelphia's inability to generate high-danger scoring chances, he should be more likely to have one of his better outings.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-130 | Play to -135)
