Following the successful debut of my NFL 1st Touchdown Model, I'm excited to launch the NHL first goal model, which I'll try to run as frequently as possible. With my NFL, NASCAR, and college basketball responsibilities, some days may have to be skipped here and there.
Each day I run the model, I'll have an initial set of projections, then try to update after final lines are set after warmups (about 30 min before puck drop), as well as updated first goal odds.
Yesterday's second-highest model edge, Joel Kiviranta with equivalent odds of +9252 at Kalshi, scored the first goal in the Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals game!
In addition to the projections, here are some features that you can use with the NHL First Goal Model:
- Quickslip Links: Each logo in the "Bet Now!" column links straight to that sportsbook’s or prediction market’s bet slip, already loaded with that bet. On desktop, right-click the logo and choose “Open link in new tab.” On mobile, press and hold the logo, then choose “Open in new tab.” The bet slip opens ready to place.
- EV: The EV column is the expected ROI of the bet based on the model.
- So, a bet on a +1900 goalscorer (5% implied odds) that the model makes 5.5% likely to happen would return the following expected value: (0.055 / 0.05) – 1 = 0.1 or +10%.
- Confidence Intervals: We know this is just a model, and with it comes uncertainty.
- Click the Low toggle and pick a Confidence Level to see each player’s lowest projected first-goal chance at that level.
- A bet that stays +EV with the toggle on is a nice cushion in case the model is too high on a player.
- Drilldowns: Click on a player's line in the table to open up the drilldown menu, which will explain how the model gets to his chances.
- Also, it has a box where you can enter the odds of the player scoring his team's first goal instead of the game's overall first goal, as sometimes the first team goal will have a higher EV.
- Kelly Staking: This area uses the Kelly Criterion to optimize your bet sizing for bankroll growth. To minimize volatility, bettors often use fractional Kelly, with the first goal model defaulting to quarter-Kelly staking. This sacrifices a small bit of bankroll growth rate, but with the safeguard of being less volatile. With the Low CI toggle on, Kelly only sizes the bets that stay +EV.
- Expected Stats: Betting first goals is not for the faint of heart. Most days are going to end in a loss. But when the wins happen, they should, in theory, be big enough to more than cover the losses.
- The line next to the Low toggle shows that day’s expected stats if you bet every +EV play at the selected Kelly staking, using the books or prediction markets you choose in the table header or for individual players. It updates with the game, team and position filters.
Here's the NHL First Goal Model for Wednesday, November 4th!
