The Minnesota Wild (2-1-1) and Dallas Stars (2-1-1) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-120o / +101u). The Stars are a -130 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wild vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -239 | 5.5 -120o / +101u | +105 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +195 | 5.5 -120o / +101u | -130 |
- Wild vs. Stars Spread: Stars -1.5 (+195 ), Wild +1.5 (-239)
- Wild vs. Stars Over/Under: 5.5 (-120o / +101u)
- Wild vs. Stars Moneyline: Wild +105, Stars -130
Wild vs Stars Polymarket Odds
Use Polymarket invite code Action to get early access and bypass 1 million+ people on the waitlist. Our Polymarket invite code also unlocks a trading bonus: Deposit $20, Get $20 Bonus!
Wild vs. Stars Preview
Minnesota Wild
The Wild survived a scare in Game 4 thanks to its fourth line and more late-game heroics from Matt Boldy, preventing Dallas from grabbing a commanding series lead heading into tonight.
That fourth line has been a difference-maker over the last two games. Michael McCarron and Marcus Foligno each scored third-period goals to either tie or push Minnesota in front, giving the Wild a depth element Dallas hasn't matched.
The Stars, by contrast, have gotten all of their offense from five players, with nine of their 11 goals coming from just three.
Minnesota has spread the wealth around. Goals have come from eight different players, and 15 in the lineup have chipped in at least a point. Brock Faber leads that group with three goals and two assists, surprisingly outproducing his superstar defensive partner Quinn Hughes through four games.
At 5-on-5, the Wild have controlled most of the play, owning a 50.92% xGoals share and a plus-6 goal differential.
The clear area that needs fixing is special teams. Minnesota is 3-for-19 on the power play while allowing eight goals on the kill across Dallas' 19 opportunities. Even worse, the Wild are just 1-for-15 on the man advantage over the last three games.
None of the above matters, though, without what Jesper Wallstedt has done in net. Through the first four games, there's no doubt the Wild made the right call rolling with him over Filip Gustavsson. Wallstedt has posted a +2.2 GSAx and a .929 SV% in the series, capped by a 43-save effort in Game 4.
Factor in the double-overtime marathon in Game 3, and he has been on the ice for 171:41 across the last two games, looking every bit up to the challenge for a rookie. There was plenty of chatter about him potentially being a trade piece this summer, but that conversation feels closed now.
One big development ahead of Game 5 is that all signs point to Mats Zuccarello returning to the lineup. That is a welcome boost for the stalled power play and for Kirill Kaprizov, who has been quieter than usual in the series with just one goal. The Kaprizov, Hartman, and Zuccarello line was the Wild's top trio during the regular season at 3.19 xGF/60, not to mention the chemistry between Kaprizov and Zuccarello is well documented.
Zuccarello has registered at least a point in six of his last seven games, with multiple points in every one of those. His prop market is well worth a look if he’s back in the lineup tonight.
He sits at -125 to record a point and +125 for an assist, the latter being a category he's hit in all seven games mentioned. For those willing to dip further into the plus-money options, he had two power-play points in Game 1 of this series, which adds another angle to consider.
Dallas Stars
Dallas should feel pretty good about where things stand heading into Game 5.
It has been a grueling four games for both sides, but the Stars have found a way to consistently get to their game plan. They have also been a little unlucky in my opinion, scoring just three goals at even strength to this point despite generating quality looks. The puck has to start bouncing their way on some of those chances eventually.
If you told me before the series that Dallas would have just three even-strength goals through four games, I would have guessed the Stars were in much worse shape than tied at 2-2 in this series.
Regarding the game plan Dallas has been able to get to, Jamie Benn has been a pest for Minnesota throughout, drawing phantom penalties and getting in his fair share of cheap shots. With how well the Stars' power play is performing, goading the Wild into the box is an understandable strategy. With so little separating these two teams, every edge matters and Dallas has clearly found one with the man advantage, going 8-for-19.
The top power-play unit also happens to be the only five Stars who have scored in this series. Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston, and Jason Robertson have a pair each, while Miro Heiskanen and Mikko Rantanen have chipped in one apiece.
The flip side is that the Wild are outscoring Dallas 11-3 at even strength, with two of Minnesota's goals coming at 4-on-4. There is not much to nitpick with how the Stars are playing, but that is the glaring issue.
They need more from the rest of the lineup, and they need to find the net at 5-on-5. Dallas has not scored a single goal with Jamie Benn, Sam Steel, or Radek Faksa on the ice, despite generating chances.
If someone outside the top names is going to break through, keep an eye on Mavrik Bourque. He has been excellent, tied for the team lead with seven high-danger chances while leading all Dallas skaters with a 68.77% expected goal share.
In net, for as good as Jesper Wallstedt has been on the other end, Jake Oettinger has matched him just about step for step. After a Game 1 clunker, he has stopped 97 of 105 shots for a .923 SV% and a 2.07 GAA.
On the injury front, Nils Lundkvist was ruled out for tonight after a nasty Game 4 incident where he took a skate to the face, which is a significant loss for the Dallas blue line. Lundkvist has been a steady, responsible piece next to Thomas Harley, and pairing him there has freed Harley up. Harley has looked sharp throughout the series, ranking second among all skaters with nine shots on goal and 23 total shot attempts.
The rest of the defense will need to fill that void, and Esa Lindell will have to be a much bigger factor. Dallas has been outscored 5-0 at 5-on-5 with Lindell on the ice in this series, a number that will need to flip quickly if the Stars want to regain control of the series.
Wild vs. Stars Prediction
This pick hinges on the report that Mats Zuccarello will be back in the lineup tonight, holding true. He does a lot for the top line and a power play that has gone just 1-for-15 in this series without him, an absence you could visibly see while watching the last three games.
His return should give Kaprizov a boost as well. Bobby Brink has done a decent job filling in, but the chemistry flips entirely with Zuccarello back in those lineup spots.
On the other side, losing Nils Lundkvist for tonight might be a slightly bigger deal than it appears on the surface. He plays an important matchup role on the back end, and that could really show against a Minnesota team trending back toward full strength with Yakov Trenin also potentially returning tonight.
The one pause I have with this pick is the way Dallas' power play looks right now. It feels unstoppable, generating high-danger looks at will. I'm banking on Minnesota staying out of the box enough to keep things even and turning this into more of a 5-on-5 game, which is where the Wild have thrived all series.
A win here sets up Minnesota with a chance to close things out at home on Thursday. I think the Wild have weathered the storm well through injuries to this point, and I like them to steal another one on the road tonight.
Pick: Wild Moneyline (+110, DraftKings)
