The Detroit Red Wings (38-25-8) and Buffalo Sabres (44-20-8) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on NHL Network.
The Sabres are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+106o / -130u). The Sabres are a -156 favorite to win outright, while the Red Wings are +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Red Wings vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Red Wings vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Red Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 6.5 +106o / -130u | +132 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +156 | 6.5 +106o / -130u | -160 |
- Red Wings vs. Sabres Spread: Sabres -1.5 (+156 ), Red Wings +1.5 (-196)
- Red Wings vs. Sabres Over/Under: 6.5 (+106o / -130u)
- Red Wings vs. Sabres Moneyline: Red Wings +130, Sabres -156
Red Wings vs Sabres Polymarket Odds
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Current odds: RED 42% · SAB 59% · NHL
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Red Wings vs. Sabres Preview
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings are in a scary spot right now, because the month of March has not been kind to them.
They’ve gone 4-5-2 in one of the most important stretches of the season and they only have 11 games left to go.
It’s safe to say the goaltending has taken quite a tumble, because for the most part, 5-on-5 play has been stellar. Since March 8, the Wings’ are seventh in expected goals with a 54.33 xGF% and eighth defensively with a 2.55 xGA/60.
John Gibson, since returning from the Olympics, is actually playing to a .913 SV%, but his GSAx is close to the negatives.
Which means that Gibson has been letting in a decent amount of pucks that he should’ve stopped. In this important stretch, he’ll need to be on top of his game, because backup Cam Talbot won’t be able to cut it.
Captain Dylan Larkin has been everything the Wings have needed, and more. In his previous 10 games, Larkin has posted nine points, while Alex DeBrincat has posted points in seven straight.
It’s definitely been a magical season for Detroit, but the Wings are going to need a little bit more, including extra support for their goaltending.
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo has fallen twice in a row in overtime to the Ducks and the Bruins, but it’s impossible to ignore how magical this season has been for the Sabres.
Admittedly, I was waiting for the shoe to drop the whole time, but it’s clear that the Sabres are for real.
Led by the power duo of Tage Thompson and captain Rasmus Dahlin, this is an incredibly deep roster that has been performing lights out all season.
Though the offensive structure may be slipping away from the Sabres just a little bit. They’re currently ranked 16th in expected goals over the past two weeks with a 51.17 xGF%.
Defensively, I’m not worried, because that two week stretch is factoring in the 8-7 game against Tampa Bay, which was a total aberration. Since that game, Buffalo has actually let up only 2.25 goals per game.
There’s no word yet on who starts in net for Buffalo, but let’s be honest… does it really matter? Part of what’s made the Sabres so dominant is their ability to comfortably roll out two goaltenders.
Both Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have played nearly identical hockey down the stretch. In each of their past 10 starts, both are playing to a 6.2 GSAx, and for the season have a .910 SV% or better.
Red Wings vs. Sabres Prediction
Detroit is in trouble, especially considering that the teams around the Wings in the playoff race are only getting better.
And now, they have to face a Sabres team that’s 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, and hold a 22-9-4 record in front of their home fans.
The KeyBank Center is known to produce some bangers as of late, and especially when the Wings are in town.
Dating back to 2019, whenever Detroit is in Buffalo, the game has reached 6 goals or more 10 separate times.
And given that both teams are loaded with goal scorers and the Wings have issues in net, tonight is a good opportunity to make the over hit an 11th time.
Plus money overs are always a heck of a way to roll into the weekend, don’t you think? Let’s ride.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+106)
