Hockey fans will be treated to the final edition of the Battle of Alberta this season on Wednesday night. The Edmonton Oilers (28-21-8) are 1-1-1 against their rival Calgary Flames (22-27-6) so far this year, after dropping the previous matchup 3-2 in Calgary on December 27.
Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EST at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are priced at +180 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (O -105 / U -115). Edmonton is a -135 favorite to win outright, while the Flames are priced at +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Oilers vs. Flames predictions and NHL picks.
Oilers vs. Flames Odds, Pick
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
| Flames Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
- Oilers vs. Flames Spread: -1.5 (+180), +1.5 (-220)
- Oilers vs. Flames Over/Under: 6.5 (O -105 /U -115)
- Oilers vs. Flames Moneyline: Oilers -135, Flames +115
Oilers vs. Flames Preview
Edmonton Oilers
Following this matchup, the Oilers will begin a lengthy 21-day break for the Olympics. Their current record of 28-21-8 has to be viewed as a disappointment, though from a seeding standpoint it’s unlikely to matter, as they should still finish as a divisional seed playing out of the soft Pacific Division.
Road teams have been above .500 in the postseason dating back to the 2016 playoffs, and a two-versus-three Round One matchup against teams such as the Anaheim Ducks, Seattle Kraken or Los Angeles Kings is extremely winnable.
So while it’s unlikely the Oilers’ modest record will matter much, the more meaningful question becomes how much worse this year’s team is compared to the ones that lost to a dominant Florida Panthers side in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals. This year’s struggles have been more pronounced, but Edmonton has flipped the switch down the stretch over the last two seasons, and even more so once the playoffs begin.
The Oilers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after falling 5-2 to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night in a game where they were heavily favored. Edmonton made a respectable push later in the matchup but clearly lacked the same level of urgency as the Leafs from the opening puck drop, which has been a fairly consistent concern this season.
Over the last 10 games, the Oilers hold a 52.35% expected goal share at even strength, which is a solid mark given their historically strong power-play unit. While the quality of chances allowed can sometimes be worse than the metrics suggest, their overall level of play still appears respectable, even with the bottom two offensive lines remaining highly ineffective.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have both feasted on the Flames in recent years and seemingly thrive in these intense rivalry matchups. McDavid has recorded 66 points in 45 regular-season games against Calgary, including eight points in the first three meetings this season. Draisaitl has tallied 69 points in 51 regular-season games versus the Flames, along with four goals and six points in the first three meetings this year.
Connor Ingram started last night’s matchup against Toronto, so Tristan Jarry is expected to get the nod here. Jarry owns a +5.0 GSAx rating and a .895 save percentage across 24 games this season, though his brief tenure with the Oilers has been fairly average overall.
Calgary Flames
It’s nearly impossible for the Flames to make the playoffs at this point, and much of the fanbase has been openly rooting for losses for some time now. That said, among the remaining 27 games on the schedule, this is unquestionably the matchup fans most want to win, and the players and coaching staff surely feel the same.
In general, Ryan Huska’s group hasn’t lacked compete level this season and has consistently battled hard in all three zones. The issue has been a clear lack of offensive firepower, which has led to underwhelming results even in games where Calgary appears to be controlling play.
As the reality of a lost season has fully set in, the Flames have begun to control less of the action. Over the past 10 games, they’ve posted a 46.33% expected goal share and allowed 3.73 xGA/60. While Rasmus Andersson may not be as impactful as his name value suggests, his absence has still been a net negative for the team.
Although Calgary’s defensive play has regressed recently compared to most of the past two seasons, it’s reasonable to expect the Flames to elevate their level in this matchup, which effectively serves as the team’s “Super Bowl” at this stage.
Dustin Wolf is expected to start in goal. He owns a .896 save percentage and a -4.1 GSAx rating across 41 appearances this season.
Oilers vs. Flames Prediction
The prices on sides look relatively fair in this matchup, as it wouldn’t be entirely surprising if the Flames forced the Oilers into some defensive miscues early and generated chances against Edmonton’s weak bottom units. It does seem likely this will be a fairly competitive game, which should force Kris Knoblauch to lean heavily on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the final pre-Olympic matchup.
In the Oilers’ 3-2 loss in Calgary on December 27, McDavid skated 26:39, while Draisaitl played 24:23. Unless Edmonton builds a significant early lead, a similar script feels likely, with Knoblauch potentially mixing in shifts featuring McDavid alongside Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, as we’ve seen in trailing game states this season.
Either way, a price of +125 for Draisaitl to score looks worth betting. He’s tallied four goals in the first three meetings this season and, after a brief dip following a personal leave of absence, has elevated his play again with two goals and 11 points over his last five games.
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goalscorer
