The Toronto Maple Leafs (25-21-9) and Edmonton Oilers (28-20-8) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:30 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-125o / +105u). The Oilers are a -205 favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are +170 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Maple Leafs vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Odds, Pick
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 6.5 -140o / 120u | +165 |
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 6.5 -140o / 120u | -200 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+120 ), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-140)
- Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Over/Under: 6.5 (-140o / +120u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Moneyline: Maple Leafs +165, Oilers -200
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto is playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a 4–2 win over Calgary on Monday. Joseph Woll started last night, so Anthony Stolarz is expected to be in net for this one—a scenario that hasn’t exactly been comforting for the Leafs this season.
Stolarz has struggled mightily, posting a -13.2 GSAx that ranks 66th out of 70 goalies with at least 10 starts. Tonight will be his third start since returning from a nearly two-and-a-half-month IR stint, and he hasn’t shown much improvement. He’s 0–2 with an .824 save percentage, allowing nine goals on 51 shots.
Adding to the concerns, the Leafs remain without Morgan Rielly, who may need extra time after the Olympic break. While Rielly has been shaky, he’s still their top option on the blue line, particularly on a power play that ranks 25th in the league and can’t afford to lose any key pieces.
An interesting angle to watch is that Toronto ranks fifth on the penalty kill and takes the second-fewest penalties per 60 minutes. The question is whether that can hold up against Edmonton’s dominant power play, which leads the NHL at 31.2%.
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton, on the other hand, is on the front end of a back-to-back, with a matchup against Calgary coming Wednesday.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been humming, combining for 21 points over the last four games, and the Oilers’ offense has followed suit, posting a league-best 39.17 xGF over its last 10 games.
Draisaitl appeared to injure his right hand and briefly exited Saturday’s game but was able to return. He is not listed on the injury report, though it could be worth monitoring ahead of the Olympics.
As usual, goaltending remains a concern. Tristan Jarry is the confirmed starter tonight and his recent form has been rough. Over his last five starts, Jarry has posted an .836 save percentage and a 4.78 GAA. The team recently placed Calvin Pickard on waivers and is now rolling with a combination of Jarry and Connor Ingram, who has shown some promise.
Jarry is coming off a poor outing in a 7–3 loss to Minnesota, where he allowed five goals on just 15 shots before being pulled in favor of Ingram.
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers Prediction
I’m taking the over here. Each of the Oilers’ last five games has gone over, including three reaching double digits. I’d expect one or both goalies to give up their fair share tonight.
Jarry and Stolarz have each allowed nine goals over their last two starts, and both teams rank in the bottom 10 in xGA over their last 10 games.
Toronto’s pace might be a little slow on the second night of a back-to-back, but with McDavid, Draisaitl, and Matthews on the ice, there should be plenty of scoring chances to go around.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-140)
