Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Darcy Kuemper
Betting odds: Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals
- Blackhawks moneyline: +120
- Capitals moneyline: -140
- Over/Under: 6
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
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The Washington Capitals have won two in a row and are back in a playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division despite having some serious concerns under the hood. It’s a familiar script for the Caps, who won the Stanley Cup last year despite relatively poor underlying numbers, but there are some red flags here.
The Capitals give up the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) and allow the second-most expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60). They have a Corsi Rating of 48.1% and don’t really generate too many good scoring chances.
The Capitals get by thanks to a wealth of individual talent but they are missing key contributors T.J. Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov tonight.
The Blackhawks aren’t a great team, their expected goals numbers are pretty much in-tune with the Caps, but they do have a positive Corsi Rating (51.1%) and a great goaltender in Corey Crawford.
With the Capitals missing one-third of their top-six I think there’s value on the Blackhawks at any plus-number in what is essentially a coin flip in D.C. tonight.
The Bet: Chicago Blackhawks +120
Betting odds: Vegas Golden Knights at Arizona Coyotes
- Golden Knights moneyline: -115
- Coyotes moneyline: +105
- Over/Under: 5.5 (-110/-110)
- Puck drop: 9 p.m. ET
The Arizona Coyotes and Vegas Golden Knights are both stuck on 19 points, though Vegas has played three more games than Arizona. The Pacific Division is a real mess and both of these teams could start climbing the table if they can put together a little bit of a run.
Both of these teams have been unlucky to start the year. Arizona owns the lowest shooting percentage (5.49%) at 5v5 while Vegas isn’t far behind them (6.46%). Not only has poor shooting luck let down the Knights, but their goaltending has been abysmal, as well. Vegas has the lowest 5v5 save percentage in the NHL and their 95.6 PDO (shooting % + save %) is also the lowest in the circuit.
Under the hood Vegas has a more impressive portfolio. The Knights are near the top in expected goals, high-danger chances and Corsi through the first quarter of the season. Arizona’s underlying numbers aren’t bad, but they aren’t great, either.
Marc-Andre Fleury is slated to start for Vegas while Darcy Kuemper will likley mind the cage for Arizona. Usually that would mean Vegas has a huge edge in net, but Fleury has really struggled this season while Kuemper has been decent for the Coyotes while Antti Raanta has been injured.
This is a good schedule spot for the Coyotes as they have been off for three days while the Knights will be playing their third game in four nights. The rest advantage, coupled with home ice makes this game pretty much 50/50 and I like the ‘Yotes at +105.
The Bet: Arizona Coyotes +105