NHL Saturday Betting Guide: The Senators Are Bad But Provide Some Value on Saturday

Oct 12, 2018 06:45 PM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Wideman

Betting odds: Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators

  • Kings moneyline: -145
  • Senators moneyline: +125
  • Over/Under: 6 (-110/-110)
  • Puck drop: 2 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 8 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets

In an ideal world, we’d never have to bet on a team such as the Ottawa Senators. But here we are. The good news is that Senators are playing a team that is not built to skate circles around anyone.

The Los Angeles Kings are currently giving up an average 57.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes (5v5, adjusted for score). It’s a small sample size, but that’s not a recipe for success. In fact, the Kings’ Corsi Rating (42%) is actually worse than that of the Senators (45.3%), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ottawa drive play.

Additionally, Los Angeles has the second-highest PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage at 5v5) in the NHL, which suggests the Kings are benefiting from some puck luck early in the season.

Even more encouraging for this spot is that the Sens have — somewhat surprisingly — created an average of 2.71 expected goals for per 60 minutes this season (xGF/60). Once again, this season is brand new, so numbers will even out, but that’s still an encouraging sign for a poor team.

Both teams are banged up, but the Kings will be without first-line winger Dustin Brown and, more importantly, goaltender Jonathan Quick.

These odds imply that the Senators have a 44.5% chance of winning against the Kings at home. Los Angeles is the more likely team to win, but Ottawa’s chances to come away with a win are closer to 47% with Quick on the pine.

Bet: Ottawa Senators +125

Betting odds: Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins

  • Red Wings moneyline: +222
  • Bruins moneyline: -270
  • Over/Under: 6 (-105/-115)
  • Puck drop: 3 p.m. ET


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