NHL Odds & Pick for Oilers vs. Senators: Back Underdog Ottawa at Big Plus Odds
David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Murray.
- The Oilers and Senators meet again on Tuesday night, with Ottawa again a big underdog.
- The Senators may sit hot goaltender Matt Murray to see if Marcus Hogberg can get anything going between the pipes.
- Regardless of who's in net, Matt Russell sees enough value on Ottawa to back them.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Ottawa Senators Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings.|
Austin Watson vs. Jujhar Khaira. Eric Gudbranson vs. Zack Kassian. Jessenia vs. MJ.
Three pairs of high-level competitors squared off on Monday night and while the first four mentioned didn’t have a rose waiting for them after their tussle, they showed that the Oilers and Senators have played some spirited games already so far this year. Back-to-back fights set up the two teams’ second back-to-back games of the season.
The Oilers had their first Battle of Alberta on Saturday, which was less of a rumble and more of a track meet, with 10 total goals scored. So it was somewhat ironic that the Senators would physically square off with the Oilers on Monday in an effort to set some sort of tone.
The fights were a draw, by and large, which is something of a competitive improvement in comparison to what the scoreboard looked like when the two teams met in Edmonton. The Oilers scored 12 goals to the Senators’ seven, and the goals came really easily at times for Edmonton.
The Oilers scored eight in the first meeting, with just one High-Danger Chance (HDC) at even-strength. Four power-play goals (on just five opportunities) and four goals in non-high-danger situations accounted for the big number on the scoreboard.
The rematch was marginally better for the Sens, even though the goaltending put them at a deficit, yet again, that they couldn’t dig out of on the way to a 4-2 loss. The Senators left Edmonton looking for answers in net, or at the very least a concerted effort to make life easier on its goaltending duo.
Matt Murray stepped up in a pair of games against Montreal and even stole a win for Ottawa. Who’s to know why or how he found some form all of a sudden, but Murray played well enough to win again on Monday in a 3-1 loss to the Oilers that included an empty-net goal. Unlike in Edmonton when the Senators skaters deserved better, they let down their goaltender at Canadian Tire Centre with not much on the offensive end.
The Oilers had the advantage when it came to the Expected Goals 5-on-5 metric, 2.26 to 1.2 (source: Natural Stat Trick) and had 14 High-Danger Chances at even strength to just 6 for the Sens. The scrappy start didn’t seem to inspire Ottawa the way they hoped.
The Senators’ rating is down to 13% below average according to my “Let’s Do That Hockey” model, as heard on THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast, which will make them a consistent underdog this season. Though that shouldn’t come as a surprise. If Murray can play the way he has in his last three starts, then we can confidently play the Senators at these big prices.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The element that’s going to decide whether this is a bet is whether Murray is back between the pipes. One would expect that he gets the night off on the back-end of a back-to-back, but maybe the Senators want to stay with the relatively hot hand.
While Murray found his game in the last week, there’s nothing to say that backup Marcus Hogberg has, and his last start was pretty ugly. Hogberg needs to prove that he’s an NHL-caliber goaltender, but the Sens need to give themselves a chance to win games that are winnable. A home game against a very average Oilers team qualifies as one.
Naturally, that means any big price is worth backing the Senators, it just becomes considerably more difficult with the unproven Hogberg getting the call.
When it comes to choosing a goaltender to back, Hogberg needs to end up in a limousine on his way home.
Pick: Senators (+170 or better if Murray starts in goal, pass if not)