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NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Jets vs. Maple Leafs (January 19)

NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Jets vs. Maple Leafs (January 19) article feature image
Credit:

Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Mason Appleton #22 of the Winnipeg Jets.

  • The Jets are short road underdogs when they face the Maple Leafs on Thursday night.
  • Both offenses have been generating quality opportunities consistently, but which defense has the upper hand?
  • Grant White breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet for the game below.

Jets vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Jets Odds +140
Maple Leafs Odds -170
Over/Under 6.5u-120
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV TSN4
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

We are breaking down an all-Canadian matchup as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday night. The Maple Leafs are coming off a momentum-building 5-4 win against the Florida Panthers, whereas the Jets have wins in eight of their past 10. Goal scoring has been a strength for both teams this season, and we expect the Leafs and Jets to be at their best for this inter-conference battle.

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Jets Offense Humming

The Jets are flying high over their recent sample, amplifying their offensive metrics en route to the top of the Western Conference standings. They will have to tap into that strength at the Scotiabank Arena if they hope to keep pace with the offensively gifted Maple Leafs.

Winnipeg has turned on the taps over their recent schedule, attempting 11 or more high-danger chances in five of their past six games. Increased productivity has yielded increased output, with the Jets scoring 23 goals across the six-game sample and eclipsing the four-goal threshold in all but two of those contests. They will lean into that strength as they look to get back into the win column after Tuesday’s loss to the Montreal Canadiens.

Although they’ve been responsible defensively, tonight’s contest sets up as a bit of a flat spot for the Jets. Winnipeg concluded a three-game road trip, returning home for one matchup before embarking on another five-game trek.

That means the Jets are in the midst of playing nine straight games in nine different cities. We’re starting to see more defensive lapses, with the Central Division leaders allowing double-digit quality chances in two of their last three. We’re expecting that trend to continue against a potent Leafs squad.


Maple Leafs Looking for Regression

It’s been a bumpier ride over the last few weeks, but Toronto remains one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league. The Maple Leafs are trending upward over their past few games, playing with more offensive gusto as they look to snap out of their recent funk. Still, their output hasn’t caught up with production, and we could see an uptick in scoring from the Leafs over the coming games.

Toronto has a wealth of talent and could get production out of all four lines. That’s evident over their recent outings, with the Leafs attempting 11 or more quality opportunities in four of their previous five.

Despite the improved analytics, the Maple Leafs are still struggling to find the back of the net, recording two or fewer goals at five-on-five in four straight. Their shooting percentage has fallen below their season-long average in three of four, making Toronto progression candidates as metrics balance out over their coming games.

As good as the Leafs have been offensively, they haven’t overcome their defensive inefficiencies. Toronto has allowed at least 10 quality chances in four of the last six. That’s put added pressure on their goaltending and resulted in a deflated save percentage. The Leafs’ team save percentage has fallen below 88.3% in three straight contests, with a cumulative 84.2% rating across that stretch.


Jets vs. Maple Leafs Pick

As much as we’re expecting the Leafs’ scoring to improve, we’re also expecting the downward trend between the pipes to continue, particularly against a potent Jets attack. Both teams have a skilled group of forwards who can find the back of the net, which should facilitate this one going over the total. We’re playing over 6.5 at plus-money.


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