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Avalanche vs. Kings Odds, Picks, Predictions: Advantageous Spot for Los Angeles (Jan. 20)

Avalanche vs. Kings Odds, Picks, Predictions: Advantageous Spot for Los Angeles (Jan. 20) article feature image
Credit:

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Quick.

  • The Avalanche are favored on Thursday night in Los Angeles.
  • Colorado is playing its third game in four nights, and it played on Wednesday.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down how that affects the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Avalanche vs. Kings Odds

Avalanche Odds -190
Kings Odds +165
Over/Under 6
Time 9:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The league’s hottest team continues their west coast swing, as the Colorado Avalanche head to Los Angeles to take on the Kings. The Avalanche are undoubtedly a powerhouse and are currently the favorites to hoist the Stanley Cup.

The Kings are coming off weak performances against the Sharks and Lightning. Next up is defending their home ice against the Avs.

Can the Kings pull off the big upset, or will Colorado be too much to handle?

Avalanche Coming to End of Difficult Stretch

It is no secret that the Avs are one of the best teams — if not the best — in the NHL. Colorado has just two losses in its last 15 contests, a league-low in that span, with both of those losses coming against division-rival Nashville.

With that said, the Avalanche may find themselves in a tough spot on Thursday night. Colorado comes to Los Angeles on the second half of a road back-to-back, playing its third game in four nights. No matter how much of a wagon a team is, that is a demanding stretch.

The Avs have been a different team on the road than they have when defending their home ice, as eight of Colorado’s 11 losses this season have come on the road. More recently, the Avalanche have either lost or gone to overtime in six of their last 10 road games.


Quick Could Power Kings vs. Colorado

The Kings are out to defend home ice following two contests that saw them outscored by a combined 12-6. I think there is reason to be optimistic in a rebound game for Los Angeles despite the red-hot Avs coming to town, though, and that reason is Jonathan Quick.

Quick got shelled Monday night against San Jose, allowing six goals on just 17 shots. This performance is extremely uncharacteristic of him, as he has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Quick ranks first in the league in 5-on-5 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes. That gives Los Angeles a massive advantage over Avs goalie Darcy Kuemper, who ranks 27th.

The last time Quick got shelled like he did against San Jose, he followed It up with a solid performance that saw him allow just one goal. Returning to home ice is a great spot for some positive regression, as Quick has been one of the league’s best between the pipes this season.

Just as Colorado is a much weaker team on the road, the Kings are a much stronger team at home, with 13 of their 20 wins coming on home ice. More recently, Los Angeles has either won or gone to overtime in seven of its last 10 home contests.

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Avalanche vs. Kings Pick

I think the Kings are getting far too much value here with the better goaltender and catching a team on the second half of a road back-to-back and playing its third game in four nights.

While the Avalanche are undoubtedly a better team, the analytics suggest that the price should not be this high for the Kings. These teams’ analytics are fairly even, as the Kings have the advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes, while Colorado has the advantage in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60.

With the underlying numbers illustrating a closer matchup than the price states, and the Kings having a far superior goalie in net, I think a Double Chance bet on the Kings is the way to go.

Odds are that if you are reading this article you are aware of double chance bets, but for those who are not, a double chance bet is one where you win whether your side wins or the game goes to overtime. Even if your team loses in overtime, the wager is still a winner.

Pick: Los Angeles Kings — Double Chance

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