NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Back Penguins to Outplay Senators (November 13)

Senators vs. Penguins Odds

The slumping Senators will continue their three-game homestand against the Penguins, who are 2-0-2 in November thus far.

Ottawa has lost six straight games and is 1-8-1 in its past 10, while Pittsburgh has played four straight overtime games and a league-high six of its games have gone to extra time this season.

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa enters play Saturday in last place in the Atlantic Division, and only the New York Islanders have scored fewer goals than the Senators among Eastern Conference teams (30). The Senators are 2-6 on home ice and were shut out by the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, 2-0.

Unsurprisingly, the Senators' underlying offensive numbers are also not good as they are in the bottom-10 in the NHL in goals-for percentage (40), expected-goals percentage (47.6), Corsi-for percentage (45), high-danger goals-for percentage (42.1) and scoring-chance goals-for percentage (42.1), among others.

The Senators are also in the midst of a Covid-19 outbreak and will likely be skating a fairly weakened lineup against the Pens. Pittsburgh has injury issues of its own, but Ottawa's depth doesn't really stack up to its counterpart's on Saturday.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins are hopeful they will get captain Sidney Crosby and defenseman Brian Dumoulin back from bouts with COVID-19 on Saturday. Crosby has only played one game this season and does not have a point.

Pittsburgh's high-octane offense has yet to get uncorked as the Penguins sit in the middle of the pack in goals-scored (37) this season, largely due to Crosby and fellow center Evgeni Malkin's absences. Pittsburgh still ranks fifth in expected goals percentage (54.2), but is 21st in the NHL in shooting percentage (8.6).

The Penguins haven't won in regulation since their 7-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 23, a span of seven games. Still, the Penguins offense has broken out in the games they've won outside of OT as they've outscored the opposition 18-5 in their three regulation wins.

Senators vs. Penguins Pick

The Penguins are posting some dynamic 5-on-5 numbers even without Crosby and Dumoulin, while the Senators are getting caved in pretty regularly. I think there's a good chance the Pens can get some separation in this one.

If Crosby and Dumoulin are a go, the Penguins are in great shape, and given the fact Pittsburgh seems trending towards a comfortable win, the puck-line odds are very enticing.

Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+175)