NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Blackhawks vs. Kraken (Nov. 17)

NHL Odds, Pick & Preview: Blackhawks vs. Kraken (Nov. 17) article feature image
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Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer.

  • The Kraken are struggling while the Blackhawks have been on fire entering Wednesday night's matchup.
  • Grant White breaks down this Western Conference showdown and offers up his best bet for the game:

Blackhawks vs. Kraken Odds

Blackhawks Odds +115
Kraken Odds -135
Over/Under 5.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds and Futures Odds here.

The Seattle Kraken play the third game of their six-game homestand Wednesday when they take on the Chicago Blackhawks.

Seattle will be looking for it first win in four games. Conversely, Chicago has strung together some victories over its recent outings and rides a heater into this battle.

However, there’s a growing disconnect between how these teams operate and the outcomes they’re getting up to this point. So, could we see a reversal of fortunes in this game?

Chicago Blackhawks

Fifteen games into the season, and you don’t even need a full hand to count the number of times the Blackhawks have outplayed their opponents. They’ve posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in 12 of their 15 games at 5-on-5 thus far.

The only time Chicago has outplayed its opponents has been at home, putting the team at a further disadvantage in Seattle.

All four Blackhawks wins have come over the past six games, but they’ve been outplayed in five of those contests. The team’s PDO remains deflated and its actual goals-for percentage below actual, but Chicago can’t continue to win while getting outplayed nearly every night.

One of the most noteworthy concerns about the Blackhawks’ metrics is their inability to score at 5-on-5 this season. Chicago has scored three 5-on-5 goals over its past four games, scoring more than two goals just twice through 15 games. The Blackhawks are unlikely to see an increase in scoring metrics against a stingy Kraken squad.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken are off to a rocky start as a franchise. Seattle sits last in the Pacific Division with a 4-10-1 record, but its metrics are better than most others and position the franchise on the elite end of the analytics spectrum.

Seattle has the 10th-best expected goals-for percentage at 5-on-5, with defense at the forefront of its systems. The Kraken allow the second-fewest scoring chances and third-fewest high-danger opportunities per game.

Seattle has been leaning into its defensive system recently, limiting opponents to seven or fewer high-danger and 25 or fewer scoring chances in each of its past five games.

Another factor working in Seattle’s favor is that it’s not living up to its expected metrics, implying it’s a progression candidate. The NHL’s newest franchise sits second to last in the PDO rankings at 5-on-5, despite being in the top 10 in most relative metrics. That said, Seattle should see more wins with sustained efforts.

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Blackhawks vs. Kraken Pick

There’s a disconnect between these teams’ metrics and outcomes over their recent samples. The Blackhawks have won four of six, despite getting outplayed in five of those contests. At the same time, the Kraken are substantially underachieving relative to their numbers.

The implied probability (57.4%) of the betting price (-135) doesn’t do Seattle justice. We’re anticipating the betting line to continue to shift in their favor and the Kraken to knock off the Blackhawks on home ice.

Pick: Seattle (-135)

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