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Sunday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins Betting Preview

Sunday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins Betting Preview article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrice Bergeron and Curtis Lazar.

  • Montreal and Boston meet Sunday in an NHL "Original Six" matchup.
  • The Canadiens are playing their third game in four nights and must beat a Bruins team that's 5-1 on home ice.
  • Grant White takes an in-depth look at this matchup below and unveils his top selection.

Canadiens vs. Bruins Odds

Canadiens Odds+170
Bruins Odds-200
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds and Futures Odds here.

It’s an Original Six matchup between two modern-day Atlantic Division foes when the Montreal Canadiens visit the Boston Bruins Sunday night. Home/road dichotomy will come into play, as the B’s put their 5-1-0 home record on the line against the Habs’ disappointing 1-5-1 road record.

Canadiens Struggle On Road Ice

The Habs have been bad on the road, but their problems go deeper than poor analytics. Montreal will be playing its third game in four nights and is on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Don’t be surprised if the Habs come out sluggish against the Bruins.

Making matters worse, primary goaltender Jake Allen had to depart after the second period of Saturday’s overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings. The Habs recalled Cayden Primeau after the contest, which would imply that they’re expecting Allen to be unavailable against the Bruins. There is a steep drop-off going from Allen to Primeau or Samuel Montembeault, neither of whom have a career save percentage above 89.1%.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t delve into the Habs’ questionable road metrics. Montreal has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in five of its seven road games this season at five-on-five. Montreal’s ceiling was a 52.3% rating against the lowly Anaheim Ducks at the end of October. Altogether, the Habs aren’t in a good spot on Sunday night.

For more odds on the Canadiens, please refer to this page.

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Bruins Playing Better at Home

The Bruins also come into today’s contest on the second night of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights. However, two of those games came on home ice, and their metrics have them pointed in a much better direction.

Boston has the seventh-best expected goals-for rating on home ice this season and has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in five of its past seven games overall. Those ratings have increased over the Bruins’ recent sample, as they’ve posted positive relative values in five of their past seven games. More impressively, the Bruins have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 61.7% in three of their past five home games.

However, Boston’s record doesn’t reflect their on-ice dominance. Their actual goals-for percentage is over 10.0% lower than expected, thanks to decreased offensive output. Boston has the fifth-worst shooting percentage at five-on-five, resulting in the third-worst PDO. 

For more odds on the Bruins, please refer to this page.

Bruins vs. Canadiens Pick

The Bruins are due for offensive progression. They continue to outplay their opponents, but their actual values remain below expected. Sunday’s matchup against the Habs is an ideal spot to back the B’s.

Boston will use last change to their advantage, putting its skilled players out against a tired Habs squad playing in front of subpar goaltenders. Get on the home side early, as the price will continue to shift in the Bruins’ favor.

Pick: Bruins -200

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