NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs. Blues (March 12)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs. Blues (March 12) article feature image

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Binnington.

  • The Golden Knights are road favorites on Sunday against the Blues in St. Louis.
  • Jordan Binnington has struggled in net for the Blues, and Tony Sartori is betting on his challenges to continue.
  • Find Sartori's betting pick and analysis below.

Golden Knights vs. Blues Odds

Golden Knights Odds-167
Blues Odds+135
Over/Under6 (-130 / +107)
Time7 p.m. ET
TVNHL Network
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

There is a Western Conference tilt on Sunday evening with the Central Division's St. Louis Blues hosting the Pacific Division's Vegas Golden Knights.

High-scoring contests are typically in-store when these two clubs square off, with six or more total goals scored in 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Golden Knights vs. Blues pick.

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Vegas Golden Knights

Entering this contest in dominant form, the Vegas Golden Knights can thank their offense for coming alive during this 5-1 stretch. Over that span, the Knights have scored at least four goals in four of those five victories.

This offensive explosion is not all that surprising given the fact that Vegas ranks 13th in the league this season in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. While the Knights also boast a strong blue line, it is important to note that they are missing their best two-way forward in Mark Stone, who remains sidelined following his back surgery.

Additionally, since Vegas is on the second half of a back-to-back, they are forced to go with goaltender Jiri Patera between the pipes. Laurent Brossoit, Adin Hill, and Logan Thompson all remain out with injuries, so the Knights had to dive deep into their organization to find a netminder for this contest.

Patera is not a big-prospect by any means, a sixth-round pick from the 2017 draft that has yet to make an appearance at the pro-level and was splitting time between the AHL and ECHL just last season.

St. Louis Blues

One of the best teams to take the over on this season, there have now been six or more total goals scored in each of the Blues' last six games. This trend is likely to continue with goaltender Jordan Binnington slated to take the crease for St. Louis.

To say it has been a difficult season for Binnington would be an understatement. Through 50 starts, he is 22-23-5 with a troubling .894 save percentage (SV%) and 3.31 goals against average (GAA).

Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, Binnington is 1-3 with a .878 SV% and 3.78 GAA over his last four starts. Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the Blues' netminder.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 25th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Making Binnington's life difficult is the thin and aging blue line in front of him.

At 5-on-5, St. Louis ranks just 26th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

Golden Knights vs. Blues Pick

This combination of poor defense and goaltending is the main reason that the Over has been very profitable in Blues games this season. In his last start against the Knights, Binnington allowed four goals on 32 shots for a .875 SV% en route to St. Louis' 5-4 shootout loss.

Another high-scoring affair is likely in-store between these two teams, especially considering that there have now been six or more total goals scored in 12 of their last 16 meetings. With the Blues' poor defense and goaltending and the unproven Patera starting across the ice, six goals should once again not be too difficult to come by.

Pick: Over 6 (-130; play to -135)

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