NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Flyers (Tuesday, February 27)
(Photo by Mark LoMoglio/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning vs. Flyers Odds
| Lightning Odds | -115 |
| Flyers Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday, February 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Philadelphia Flyers for the second of three times this season. When they met at the Wells Fargo Center just over a month ago, the Lightning emerged with a 6-3 victory.
After this weekend's back-to-backs, these clubs are trending in opposite directions. Tampa Bay won both its games handily, while Philadelphia suffered two one-goal losses.
With these teams separated by just two points in the standings and in the thick of the playoff race, a crucial two points are up for grabs tonight.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Lightning vs. Flyers prediction and pick.
Despite injuries and an unimpressive underlying process, the Lightning continue to hold down the Eastern Conference's final wild-card spot thanks largely to the heroic efforts of some of their stars. Nikita Kucherov leads the NHL in scoring with 102 points, while Brayden Point and Victor Hedman are both scoring over a point per game.
Unlike previous years, though, Tampa Bay no longer has the horses to play the well-rounded game we've become accustomed to. Instead, this year's formula has been rather simple — the Lightning play a responsible defensive game, rely on their stars and their No. 1 ranked power play for offense, and hope for some timely saves from goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The underlying numbers concur. Over Tampa Bay's 5-5-0 stretch since the All-Star break, its 2.40 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 is tied for the ninth-best mark in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Lightning's 2.34 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 is tied for the league's ninth-worst mark. With a 5-on-5 xGF% of 49.30, the Lightning aren't driving play at even strength, but rather relying on boosts from their special teams and goaltending to propel them to victory.
The key for the Lightning going forward is Vasilevskiy, whose play has remained uneven. Since the break, the Russian netminder owns a 3.27 GAA and a .893 SV%. Tampa Bay needs more from the goaltender regarded as the NHL's best.
In many ways, the Flyers' recipe for success is very similar to Tampa Bay's. Under John Tortorella, Philadelphia strives to limit its opponent's chances and score just enough goals to win. Unlike the Lightning, though, the Flyers don't have the game-breakers to carry the offensive burden.
Still, the Flyers' shocking ascent has proven to be no fluke as they sit in a playoff spot, holding down third place in the Metropolitan Division.
Over Philadelphia's nine games since the All-Star break, the underlying numbers suggest the script has flipped. The Flyers' 2.81 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 ranks eighth in the NHL, while their 2.47 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 ranks 13th. Thus, while Philadelphia has strayed from its more structured style, it's still controlling play at 5-on-5 with a 53.24 xGF%.
Between the pipes, the Flyers continue to get solid play from Samuel Ersson, who owns a 2.56 GAA and 3.8 GSAx this year. Since the break, the rookie goaltender is 4-2-1 with a 2.45 GAA and a .909 SV%.
Tonight, Philadelphia will be without its leading scorer Travis Konecny, who will miss his third straight game with an upper-body injury.
(Hockey bettors: Check out the latest developments on the coming launch of North Carolina sports betting online.)
Lightning vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
After the Flyers gave up seven goals in Sunday's loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, I expect Tortorella to challenge his squad to re-establish their defensive identity. Without Konecny and defenseman Jamie Drysdale, Philadelphia should look to play a particularly structured and responsible game. Moreover, with Kucherov having scored a hat trick when these teams previously met, I'm expecting the Flyers to have a better plan in place to slow down the Hart Trophy candidate and his line.
As a result, I'm predicting a low-event, tight-checking first period, in which the Flyers focus on staying out of the penalty box. Thus, I'm taking Under 1.5 first-period goals at even money at DraftKings.
The other prop I'm targeting is Over 27.5 saves for Vasilevskiy. I'm expecting the Flyers to own the puck and get it to the net early and often. The last time these teams played, Philadelphia recorded 32 shots on goal and Vasilevskiy posted 29 saves.
Picks: Under 1.5 First-Period Goals (+100 at DraftKings, Play to -105) | Vasilevskiy Over 27.5 Saves (-125 at DraftKings, Play to -130)
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